Deep in my moderate heart (my whole wheat side) I want to believe that health reform is happening in the public interest.

My frosty side thinks otherwise.

In my opinion, the Baucus plan is the foundation of health reform. The beltway media knows it, Obama knows it, and informed citizens are growing to know it. The final bill will include landmark measures regarding pre-existing condition coverage and a mountain of regulation to control costs.

But (BUT) the final bill will likely be an unmitigated disaster. The seed is rotten.

The legislation has to be enforced by a combination of oversight and legal controls. I believe that neither of these august bodies will perform their function. Instead, I foresee the enforcement of mandates while any law that limits the "free market" will be undermined, overlooked, and overturned. Without a public option that has the funding and oversight necessary to force private industry to compete, industry will game the system. The cost of covering pre-existing conditions will raise all costs. Mandatory coverage places the onus of responsibility on citizens to insure themselves.

In my opinion, the final bill will transfer more wealth to the same financiers who engineered the current crisis. I believe that the banking tycoons are manufacturing another speculative bubble based on a mandated subsidy for increasingly shitty coverage.

And speaking of coverage:

The political implications are clear. The Dems will frame the failure of reform on big business. The Reps will frame the failure on government's inability to work on behalf of taxpayers. Both will be correct because both sides have created this coming debacle. And many voters will back Dems because the alternative will be a GOP typhoon of epic crazy.

We are being gamed. If the final bill is the Baucus Plan with sugar on top (as Obama's speech indicates) then this bill must die. Reconcile the bill and force a competitive public option or kill the final product.

Mark my words: if the Baucus plan with sugar reaches Obama's desk, it will be the biggest transfer of wealth upwards since the Iraq War.

Tell your Representative that you will not subsidize private care of your body. Demand a public option.