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Week of April 20, 2008 - April 26, 2008

Hillary Clinton now needs a larger percentage of remaining superdelegates than she did before Pennsylvania.


<a href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/hillary-clinton-now-needs-70-o.php">One month ago</a>, Hillary Clinton needed 70% of the remaining superdelegates.  Since a fairly large primary just occurred, I figured I'd see what she needs now.

According to CBS, the current pledged delegate counts are the following:

Obama, pledged: 1486
Clinton, pledged: 1328

In total, there are 3253 pledged delegates.  This means that there are 439 pledged delegates who are currently unaccounted for.


Let's
assume that each candidate will get roughly half (which doesn't seem
like an awful assumption) - 219 or 220.  Let's say Obama gets 219, and Clinton 220.

That means that at the end of the primaries, the pledged delegate count will be approximately:

Obama: 1705
Clinton: 1548

Again according to CBS, the current superdelegate counts are:

Obama: 229
Clinton: 257

Which brings us to:

Obama: 1934
Clinton: 1805


A candidate will need at least 2025 votes to wrap it up.  Which means:

Obama needs 91 more superdelegates
Clinton needs 220 more superdelegates

There
are a total of 795 superdelegates, 462 of which have already expressed
a preference.  Leaving 309 superdelegates currently available.

Which means:

Obama needs 29.4% of the remaining superdelegates.

Clinton needs 71.2% of the remaining superdelegates.
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Zell

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