Hoo, boy.

<a href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/hillary-clinton-now-needs-70-o.php">One month ago</a>, Hillary Clinton needed 70% of the remaining superdelegates.  Since a fairly large primary just occurred, I figured I'd see what she needs now.

According to CBS, the current pledged delegate counts are the following:

Obama, pledged: 1486
Clinton, pledged: 1328

In total, there are 3253 pledged delegates.  This means that there are 439 pledged delegates who are currently unaccounted for.


Let's
assume that each candidate will get roughly half (which doesn't seem
like an awful assumption) - 219 or 220.  Let's say Obama gets 219, and Clinton 220.

That means that at the end of the primaries, the pledged delegate count will be approximately:

Obama: 1705
Clinton: 1548

Again according to CBS, the current superdelegate counts are:

Obama: 229
Clinton: 257

Which brings us to:

Obama: 1934
Clinton: 1805


A candidate will need at least 2025 votes to wrap it up.  Which means:

Obama needs 91 more superdelegates
Clinton needs 220 more superdelegates

There
are a total of 795 superdelegates, 462 of which have already expressed
a preference.  Leaving 309 superdelegates currently available.

Which means:

Obama needs 29.4% of the remaining superdelegates.

Clinton needs 71.2% of the remaining superdelegates.

According to CBS, the current pledged delegate counts are the following:

Obama, pledged: 1403
Clinton, pledged: 1236

In total, there are 3253 pledged delegates.  This means that there are 614 pledged delegates who are currently unaccounted for.

Let's assume that each candidate will get roughly half (which doesn't seem like an awful assumption) - 307.

That means that at the end of the primaries, the pledged delegate count will be approximately:

Obama: 1710
Clinton: 1543

Again according to CBS, the current superdelegate counts are:

Obama: 213
Clinton: 249

Which brings us to:

Obama: 1923
Clinton: 1792

A candidate will need at least 2025 votes to wrap it up.  Which means:

Obama needs 102 more superdelegates
Clinton needs 233 more superdelegates

There are a total of 795 superdelegates, 462 of which have already expressed a preference.  Leaving 333 superdelegates currently available.

Which means:

Obama needs 30.6% of the remaining superdelegates.

Clinton needs 70.0% of the remaining superdelegates.

Obviously, lots of them have publicly indicated that they intend to support a certain candidate.  And lots more surely will.

But when it comes time for them to actually place their vote, is it necessarily public?

There's been a lot of talk recently along the lines of "Clinton needs 64% of the remaining delegates".  Well, she's almost certainly not going to get 64% of the remaining pledged delegates, so this got me wondering: how many more superdelegates does each candidate realistically need, at this point?

According to CBS, the current counts are the following:

Obama, pledged: 1392
Clinton, pledged: 1226

In total, there are 3253 pledged delegates.  This means that there are 635 pledged delegates who are currently unaccounted for.

Let's assume that each candidate will get roughly half (which doesn't seem like an awful assumption) - 317 or 318.  Hell, we'll give the 318 to Clinton, just to be magnanimous.

That means that at the end of the primaries, the pledged delegate count will be approximately:

Obama: 1709
Clinton: 1544

Again according to CBS, the current superdelegate counts are:

Obama: 202
Clinton: 245

Which brings us to:

Obama: 1911
Clinton: 1789

A candidate will need at least 2025 votes to wrap it up.  Which means:

Obama needs 114 more superdelegates
Clinton needs 236 more superdelegates

There are a total of 795 superdelegates, 447 of which have already expressed a preference.  Leaving 348 superdelegates currently available.

Which means:

Obama needs slightly less than one out of every three remaining superdelegates.

Clinton needs slightly more than two out of every three remaining superdelegates.

1. If you look at a user's profile, the "latest posts" section shows the user's oldest posts, not their latest posts.

2. If you try to post a comment after you've been inactive for a while, a username/password box will appear after you hit "submit", and will tell you that you have to log in.  If you then type your username and password, and hit submit, it will tell you that your username and password are invalid.  Every time.  I know that I'm not typing them wrong, because if I simply hit "submit" again after it told me "invalid", without modifying them, it always accepts them.

Bonus question:

3. Is there a place to post bugs?