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As Main Street rejoices, Wall Street is a basket case


Cross-posted at River Twice Research.

If you were not one of the 2 million people watching the inauguration on the Mall in Washington, you could watch the spectacle on any number of television channels. Flipping between ABC, CBS, NBC and PBS would have yielded different commentary but largely the same mood: euphoria, awe at the magnitude of electing the first African-American president, and somber urgency about what confronts our financial system and the world. Yet, even as Obama warned of a difficult road, the crowds were wildly enthusiastic, and millions were moved. Main Street has turned a corner.

But if you had turned on CNBC, you would have seen a different world. Wall Street was in free-fall, with the worst day for bank stocks ever. Some major banks, Citigroup, Bank of America and State Street especially, lost between 25% and 60% of their market value. Similar sell-offs occurred in British bank stocks, with the Royal Bank of Scotland particularly eviscerated. Wall Street pessimism was terrible a few months ago, and has now transcended pessimism and evolved into manic nihilism.

Six months ago, the relationship between Wall Street and Main Street was almost a complete inverse. Main Street believed that things were grim and getting grimmer; Wall Street thoughts things were bad, but manageable. Now, judging from polls and the wide-eyed wonder at the inauguration, Main Street thinks things are bad but that finally there is a chance of change for the better. Some big non-financial companies like Johnson & Johnson and IBM are holding their own, indicating that all is not lost in the real world. Wall Street, meanwhile, has become a basket case.

The financial world is caught in a negative feedback loop. As earning plunge and write-offs on bad loans continue, banks are forced to set aside more reserves against future bad loans and losses. Mark-to-market accounting rules demand that they value even illiquid holdings at current prices, which has the unintended consequence of devaluing almost everything. In a world where there are no buyers, everything approaches zero; if you have to sell today, you take what the market will give you.

The more financial institutions are forced to recognize losses that are technically unrealized, the more they have to hoard cash and turn to the government for infusions; and the more that the stock prices crash, the more margin have to be made or met, which accelerates the need to raise cash. There is also the psychological aspect: most of the people who work at these institutions are paid in part in the stock of their employers, and they have seen their personal net worth cut by 50% or 90%. That isn't a call for sympathy for the affluent, but it helps explain why many of the people manning those ships are mired in their own personal depression.

This vicious cycle has to stop. Many pensions hold these stocks and retirees as well, because until a few months ago, they paid reliable dividends. Now those are being slashed. Some say that we should let the equity of these companies be wiped out as they accept more government money, and with the sell-off we are getting there. But halting that slide is important, both psychologically and for the public good. Desperate times, you know, require unusual measures.

As government exposes more of public money to the private banking system, why not halt trading of these companies for an extended period, perhaps for weeks or even months? Suspend some accounting rules. Take direct equity stakes rather than simply injecting capital. Some will cry foul and decry the interference in the free-market, but in times of crises, expediency must trump ideology. Main Street is starting to roll up its sleeves and get down to business; Wall Street needs to do the same but clearly is in need of supervision, and intervention. Government is not a long-term solution, but neither is temporary hospitalization for a patient on suicide-watch. The bailout package passed in October may have been a solution had it been consistently applied; the result is we now need more. But it is now time for Wall Street to follow, not to lead.

For a look at additional blogs and other writings of mine, feel free to visit River Twice Research.


6 Comments

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Wall Street can't be allowed to "lead" again. It's self-management led us to this abyss, and gaming with financial instruments and speculation-driven fool's gold created a crap-game economy. Well... the markets have rolled snake-eyes and now it's over. Yeah, the days of bubble fortunes are finished, and Wall Street must submit to intense re-regulation. When we hand over the nation's piggy-bank to compulsive gamblers, we get disaster. Greed subsumes all self-retraint - we've learned that the hard way.

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You got it right again Curt. Yessirreee Curt.

We will soon be looking over the wall to see what in the hell is going on, for a change!!!!!

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That speech kicked Wall Street's ass. Biggest market drop after an inauguration speech in history. Lot's being said about the cost of the inauguration, but the secondary cost is staggering.

I wonder how much that pathetic speech, inane poetry, and insulting racist 'prayer' cost the average 401k?

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Funny, I thought there were supposed to be 3 comments so far, but I only see two above ... one from Curt and a reply from dd. Though there is a mysterious blank space after that.

Anyway: while I am not attempting to call any sort of exact bottom, this is a good time to invest in good companies. (The main thing to be wary of at the moment remains financials.) If you have a 401(k) or similar that's buying S&P500 or some other reasonably broad market index, be glad that the prices are low: you're getting decent (not great, but decent) paper at decent (again, not great) prices right now. It will take 20 or 30 years to get really good results, but 20 or 30 years from now, I believe you will be happy.

(Of course, if you have fewer than that many years to go until retirement, be careful.)

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Mark-to-market accounting rules demand that they value even illiquid holdings at current prices

Is this an argument for keeping banks out of such gambles?

I don't know for a fact what "illiquid holdings" are really at issue. If it's homes with mortgages in default or foreclosure, those SHOULD be marked to market. If it's MBS instruments, or CDOs and CDSes, I say the let the banks fail.

Roosevelt did close banks for a short time. But with FDIC coverage now expanded (a move I did not approve of) I don't see that as necessary.

Until Jan 1, Wells and JPM stocks were doing fine. Has there been another round of heavy naked short selling? That would be something I would have banned.

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I don't agree that banks stocks six months ago thought things were manageable. And JPM's stock was below $20 back in July and guess what it's back there again. We're going to go through very tough small cycles for the foreseeable future in my opinion, and Tuesday's sell-off had nothing to do with the inauguration. It started as a reaction to terrible earnings from RBS and snowballed with the awful earnings from State Street.

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Zachary Karabell

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Zachary Karabell is an author, historian, money manager and economist. Karabell is President of River Twice Research, where he analyzes economic and political trends. He is also a Senior Advisor for Business for Social Responsibility. Previously, he was Executive Vice President, Head of Marketing and Chief Economist at Fred Alger Management, a New York-based investment firm, and President of Fred Alger and Company, as well as Portfolio Manager of the China-US Growth Fund, which won both a Lipper Award for top performance and a 5-star designation from Morningstar. He was also Executive Vice President of Alger's Spectra Funds, a no-load family of mutual funds that launched the $30 million Spectra Green Fund, which was based on the idea that profit and sustainability are linked. At Alger, he oversaw the creation, launch and marketing of several funds, led corporate strategy for acquisitions, and represented the firm at public forums and in the media. Educated at Columbia, Oxford, and Harvard, where he received his Ph.D., he is the author of several books, including the forthcoming Chimerica: How the United States and China Became One and What That Means for the World, which will be published by Simon & Schuster in 2009, and previous books such as A Visionary Nation: Four Centuries of American Dreams and What Lies Ahead, The Last Campaign: How Harry Truman Won the 1948 Election (which won the Chicago Tribune Heartland Award for best non-fiction book of the year), and Peace Be Upon You: The Story of Muslim, Christian and Jewish Coexistence (Knopf, 2007), which examined the forgotten legacy of peace among the three faiths. In 2003, the World Economic Forum designated Zachary a "Global Leader for Tomorrow." He sits on the board of the World Policy Institute and the New America Foundation, and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is a regular commentator on national news programs, such as CNBC, CNN, and a contributor to such publications as The Wall Street Journal, The Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Newsweek and Foreign Affairs.

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