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In A Few Fateful Days


Cross-posted at River Twice Research. Please note that this article first appeared in the October 18, 2008 edition of Newsweek.

You've heard the story. On the heels of tumbling shares and dire warnings from the U.S. president, as well as business and government officials across the globe, the British prime minister says, "The world economy is facing its greatest risk in decades." To halt the slide, he calls for a global response to prevent the crisis from spiraling out of control.

Sounds familiar, yes? Yet the prime minister described above is not Gordon Brown, the current occupant of 10 Downing Street, but rather Tony Blair in 1998, responding to the Asian crisis that had been accelerating since the collapse of the Thai currency many months before. There were many financial crises in the 20th century, several of which triggered panic that the system was on the brink of collapse: the oil shocks of the 1970s, the stock-market crash of 1987 and the collapse of the Mexican peso in 1994 all come to mind. But the Asian crisis was particularly acute. Throughout the fall of 1997 and into the spring of 1998, the Clinton administration held numerous meetings with various heads of state throughout Asia and Europe to work on a coordinated response. Eventually, the pieces came together, and the spiral was halted, but not quickly and not without considerable inertia.

Contrast that with what took place last week: over the course of one weekend, finance ministers of the G7, a club of the world's largest economies, sized up the extent of the financial crisis. They recognized that the credit system had simply ceased to function. Led in part by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and also by European leaders including Gordon Brown of the U.K. and Nicolas Sarkozy of France, as well as IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn, they worked throughout the weekend to make a series of rolling announcements on Monday, Oct. 13. First, more than $3 trillion of funds would be committed to shore up banks and jump-start a frozen system. In addition, trillions of dollars of deposits would be guaranteed by governments around the world. China's central bank maintained its commitment to purchase U.S. Treasuries, a controversial issue for the presidential election, but an imperative part of a functioning global financial system. All this followed a global, coordinated rate cut by more than a dozen central banks.

For a look at the rest of this article as well as additional blogs and other writings of mine, feel free to visit River Twice Research.


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Zachary Karabell

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Zachary Karabell is an author, historian, money manager and economist. Karabell is President of River Twice Research, where he analyzes economic and political trends. He is also a Senior Advisor for Business for Social Responsibility. Previously, he was Executive Vice President, Head of Marketing and Chief Economist at Fred Alger Management, a New York-based investment firm, and President of Fred Alger and Company, as well as Portfolio Manager of the China-US Growth Fund, which won both a Lipper Award for top performance and a 5-star designation from Morningstar. He was also Executive Vice President of Alger's Spectra Funds, a no-load family of mutual funds that launched the $30 million Spectra Green Fund, which was based on the idea that profit and sustainability are linked. At Alger, he oversaw the creation, launch and marketing of several funds, led corporate strategy for acquisitions, and represented the firm at public forums and in the media. Educated at Columbia, Oxford, and Harvard, where he received his Ph.D., he is the author of several books, including the forthcoming Chimerica: How the United States and China Became One and What That Means for the World, which will be published by Simon & Schuster in 2009, and previous books such as A Visionary Nation: Four Centuries of American Dreams and What Lies Ahead, The Last Campaign: How Harry Truman Won the 1948 Election (which won the Chicago Tribune Heartland Award for best non-fiction book of the year), and Peace Be Upon You: The Story of Muslim, Christian and Jewish Coexistence (Knopf, 2007), which examined the forgotten legacy of peace among the three faiths. In 2003, the World Economic Forum designated Zachary a "Global Leader for Tomorrow." He sits on the board of the World Policy Institute and the New America Foundation, and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is a regular commentator on national news programs, such as CNBC, CNN, and a contributor to such publications as The Wall Street Journal, The Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Newsweek and Foreign Affairs.

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