xstryker's Blog

MT-Gov: Schweitzer 55, Brown 30

2008-05-28T11:36:55Z

The latest Mason-Dixon poll in Montana also included the Governor's race. Democratic incumbent (and netroots fave) Brian Scweitzer leads Roy Brown 55 to 30, exactly the same margin as in December's poll. You can find this and the other 4 Montana races polled (MT-Pres (D), MT-Pres, MT-Sen, MT-AL) as well as December's senate and gov. polls on Election Inspection's Montana page.

OH-14: Memorial Day Donor Bomb for Bill O'Neill

2008-05-26T20:43:02Z

Cross-posted on Election Inspection.

Ohio's 14th district is in the suburbs of Cleveland - exactly the kind of place where Democrats have been making inroads in the past two cycles. The PVI of the district is R+2 - a very winnable district. Steve LaTourette has a scandal against him and an opponent who's both a Vietnam Vet and an elected Judge. We need to send O'Neill money to help get this race onto the DCCC radar and attract attention from VoteVets as well. That's right, the only barrier to this race becoming competitive is money, the one thing nearly any of us can help with. Send a lot or a little to a veteran running for congress this Memorial Day.

Bill O'Neill is a Vietnam veteran who received a Bronze Star - that's patriotism that no flag pin can match. He's also been a civil rights lawyer, a small businessman, and a union organizer - a man who understands the economic challenges faced by Ohioans who've felt the brunt of the Bush Economy. In more recent years, he's been one of the most respected appellate judges in Ohio - a man of integrity who can be trusted to make sure that no man, even the President of the United States, is above the law. He stepped down from the bench in June 2007 to run for Congress, because he knows a judge cannot be compromised by the trials of campaigning. Learn more about O'Neill.

Steve LaTourette is scum - he cheated on his wife with his former chief of staff, who was lobbying his commiteee, who LaTourette then remarried after getting a divorce. So he's literally in bed with a lobbyist, and she suddenly got all sorts of new clients. For example, she represents the Cleveland-Cuyahoga County Port Authority, while he's the ranking member on the Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime, a part of the Transportation and Infrastructure committee. This isn't why the GOP removed him as chair of the Ethics committee, of course - they simply didn't like his toothless admonishment (with no penalties) of Tom Delay. LaTourette quickly fell in line after that. Salon article on LaTourette by Cliff Schecter. LaTourette has a perfect score on the Family Values card according to the GOP - that is, unless you count his own family values. (Is that why people think he's a moderate?)

So please - rec this diary, spread the word, and Donate to Bill O'Neill!

Election Inspection's final predictions for IN and NC

2008-05-06T15:44:52Z

Election Inspection's final predictions:

Indiana:
X Stryker: Clinton by 6.5% for 4 net delegates
Elliot: Clinton by 3.4% for zero net delegates

North Carolina:
X Stryker: Obama by 12% for 11 net delegates
Elliot: Obama by 18.8% for 15 net delegates

Latest IN, NC polls

2008-05-05T12:58:26Z

Latest Indiana and North Carolina polls:

Zogby IN: Obama 44, Clinton 42
Suffolk U. IN: Clinton 49, Obama 43
Zogby NC: Obama 48, Clinton 40
InsiderAdvantage NC: Obama 48, Clinton 40

In southern states, InsiderAdvantage is usually about 7 points off in Clinton's favor, so just consider that a 10 point lead for Obama.

InsiderAdvantage: Clinton by 2 in North Carolina

2008-05-01T03:55:19Z

InsiderAdvantage has a poll out showing Clinton up by 2 in North Carolina.

Election Inspection lays out why InsiderAdvantage polls are worthless in North Carolina.

Namely, it's because they've been absurdly wrong in every state east of the Mississippi and south of the Mason-Dixon, by 12-20 points in Clinton's favor every single time. So, basically, just add 12-20 to Obama's number, and voila! You have the same range that every other pollster predicts in this race.

New Quinnipiac poll

2008-02-14T14:46:20Z

As reported on my blog, Election Inspection, new Quinnipiac polls show Clinton up by 21 in Ohio and 16 in PA. There are general election matchups for both these states as well as Florida, and they show about the same result for Obama and Clinton (resembling the Kerry numbers) except in PA where Hillary gets a regional boost.