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Roubini to Obama: "Make haste slowly" on bank nationalization


Many among the chorus of voices across the political spectrum now urging bank nationalization make it sound quick, clean and simple. The watchwords are "bite the bullet," "cut the Gordian knot"; the implication is usually that Obama and Geithner are wasting precious time and money and heightening market uncertainty by by dallying, trimming, refusing the grasp the nettle.

So it's striking that one of the highest profile advocates of nationalization, Nouriel Roubini, whose words today are freighted with the current gold standard of credibility, having forecast the market meltdown, argues yes, that selected behemoth banks must be nationalized -- but also that the time is not yet ripe. From today's Wall Street Journal:

So, will the highest level of government be receptive to the bank-nationalization idea? "I think it will," Mr. Roubini says, unhesitatingly. "People like Graham and Greenspan have already given their explicit blessing. This gives Obama cover." And how long will it be before the administration goes in formally for nationalization? "I think that we're going to see the policy adopted in the next few months . . . in six months or so."

That long? I ask. "Six months from now," he replies, "even firms that today look solvent are going to look insolvent. Most of the major banks -- almost all of them -- are going to look insolvent. In which case, if you take them all over all at once, you cause less damage than if you would if you took over a couple now, and created so much confusion and panic and nervousness.

While Geithner gets pounded for vagueness and Obama for timidity, look for Obama to follow the Emperor Augustus' watchword: festina lente. Make haste slowly. Wait till the bad bank harvest is ripe.

I'm not qualified to judge the wisdom or the direction of Geithner/Obama's long-term thinking about the banks. Or Roubini's, for that matter. I'm simply transliterating Roubini's implicit reading of what they're up to.


Here is the blueprint that Roubini and his colleague Matthew Richardson laid out in last Sunday's Washington Post:

Two important parts of Geithner's plan are "stress testing" banks by poring over their books to separate viable institutions from bankrupt ones and establishing an investment fund with private and public money to purchase bad assets. These are necessary steps toward a healthy financial sector.

But unfortunately, the plan won't solve our financial woes, because it assumes that the system is solvent. If implemented fairly for current taxpayers (i.e., no more freebies in the form of underpriced equity, preferred shares, loan guarantees or insurance on assets), it will just confirm how bad things really are.

Nationalization is the only option that would permit us to solve the problem of toxic assets in an orderly fashion and finally allow lending to resume. Of course, the economy would still stink, but the death spiral we are in would end.

Nationalization -- call it "receivership" if that sounds more palatable -- won't be easy, but here is a set of principles for the government to go by:

First -- and this is by far the toughest step -- determine which banks are insolvent. Geithner's stress test would be helpful here. The government should start with the big banks that have outside debt, and it should determine which are solvent and which aren't in one fell swoop, to avoid panic. Otherwise, bringing down one big bank will start an immediate run on the equity and long-term debt of the others. It will be a rough ride, but the regulators must stay strong.

Second, immediately nationalize insolvent institutions. The equity holders will be wiped out, and long-term debt holders will have claims only after the depositors and other short-term creditors are paid off.

Third, once an institution is taken over, separate its assets into good ones and bad ones. The bad assets would be valued at current (albeit depressed) values. Again, as in Geithner's plan, private capital could purchase a fraction of those bad assets. As for the good assets, they would go private again, either through an IPO or a sale to a strategic buyer.

The proceeds from both these bad and good assets would first go to depositors and then to debt-holders, with some possible sharing with the government to cover administrative costs. If the depositors are paid off in full, then the government actually breaks even.

Fourth, merge all the remaining bad assets into one enterprise. The assets could be held to maturity or eventually sold off with the gains and risks accruing to the taxpayers.

The eventual outcome would be a healthy financial system with many new banks capitalized by good assets. Insolvent, too-big-to-fail banks would be broken up into smaller pieces less likely to threaten the whole financial system. Regulatory reforms would also be instituted to reduce the chances of costly future crises (my emphasis).

Superficially, Roubini and Richardson seem to suggest that the Geithner plan is inadequate ("the plan won't solve our financial woes") and that nationalization is straightforward (4-step program). At the same time, they mark Geithner's stress test as a necessary first step, acknowledge the enormous difficulty and risk inherent in nationalization, and -- as in today's Journal interview -- stress the importance of timing in steering through the anticipated "rough ride." The key is to do it "in one fell swoop," and that can't be done yet.

Obama has built the reputation of a master of timing. Let's see how he rides the nationalization tiger.

7 Comments

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Excellent analysis.

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Good piece, Xpost. Rec'd. While a lot of commentary lately is on the pro's and con's of each specific action, I agree that looking out ahead - 6 months... 4 years.... even 10 years - gives a very different perspective. The economy is not going to snap back "into place" in the next few months. There's only one film I see, and it's a lot bleaker, with more firms, more banks, becoming publicly, obviously, bust.

Better to let that be seen, or foreseen and forecast, by others, and THEN move... than to act and be blamed for "losing them" or "taking them down." Granted, you can't wait too long. I'd guess it'll be sooner than 6 months certainly. But if that's the picture, it makes political sense. Can you afford to have the entire financial, conservative and business community saying you took them down? I doubt it.

What interests me more, and worries me more, is WHAT THEN? Yes, we nationalize the banks or drag them through some equivalent process, then set up new structures & all that. But. What then? What are the new "real economy" investments that can justify flowing funds out of these new creations? We've just shoved money out through tax credits, plus transfers to keep people in jobs, plus a batch for roads and bridges and bricks and cement.

But NO way is it enough. Not even enough to stabilize the downward movement of the real economy. People have an enormous debt overhang, and too many have massive assets that they can afford to draw down for a decade, and don't need to buy new stuff - houses, cars, tv's, these things will last another decade. Can't wait that long.

So even if Obama plays the recent/short-term hand well, then plays the bank collapse well (politically), he's still gonna face... an economy in the dumpster. In Roubini's terms, after the death spiral stops, we have "an economy that stinks." Well, if the stink is as bad as I suspect, "stink" isn't the right word. So what then? Another jolt of the kind of "stimulus" we just had? I not only don't think it'll work, I don't think it'll get any easier politically.

Beyond surviving the train wreck presently piling up, car by car, around us... we need something. And I'm hearing nary a peep on that front as of yet.

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Sensible. Rec'd. "Timing" has been mentioned before!

The "get the banks lending now" mantra needs to be buried.

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Timin, tic a tic a tic a tic a Timin.

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My guru is smarter than your guru:

In a private note about my ‘good bank’ proposal, Uwe Reinhardt raises the following question: “..physically and time wise, how hard would it be to establish these new banks? … People will imagine new skyscrapers being built to house the new banks, etc. So, step by step, how would this get done? I imagine one could just take over Citigroup’s and Morgan Stanley’s buildings, make it the new bank and move the that stays with them to another location — or , floors in the same building.”

Uwe is exactly right as to how the new banks would be established operationally. First, a new good bank is created for each existing bank that is revealed (through the stress tests proposed by US Treasury Secretary TIm Geithner as part of his Financial Stability Plan for all banks with assets over $100 bn, or through some other financial forensic exercise) to be not viable without public financial support. The new good banks would be established as legal entitities and as FDIC-insured commercial banks. They would be capitalised using private and public money, with the state ensuring that the new entities are properly capitalised.

(( snip several paragraphs ))

Among the good assets I would have the new bank buy from the bad old bank would be as much of the franchises, branches, offices and other real estate and equipment as are necessary to perform the lending, deposit taking and other functions of a (narrow) bank. I would also hire many of the staff (all but the top management) of the old bank. As the old bad bank no longer has a banking license, will no longer hold or take deposits, and will not be allowed to invest in any new assets, it will require just a relatively small number of asset managers and funding specialists to manage its assets. The old or legacy bad bank would just require the expertise of fund managers managing a fund that is constrained not to invest in any new assets.As far as the banking customers (depositors and borrowers) are concerned, they would at first only notice the change in the name on the door (from Citi to New Citi or from Bank of America to New Bank of America). The legacy bad old bank fund management team could rent some space in the basement of the new bank. The whole exercise could be implemented over a weekend. The senior debt of many of the institutions that are likely to turn out to be bad banks is often held by institutional investors like pension funds and insurance companies. If and when the old bad banks default on that debt, the holders of the debt obviously get hurt. While that is regrettable, it is surely better that the burden of the losses incurred as a result of past bad lending and investment decisions fall on those who made these decisions rather than on the tax payer.

This way there is never one swell foop of nationalisation such as your M. de Roubini anticipates, today Citigroup . . . a week from tomorrow, BankAmerica . . . a month from Tuesday, ScroogeBank of Rancho Crawford TX . . . .

Festina lente really would apply rather better to Mr. Buiter's scheme, would it not?

Happy days.

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Roubini's point about the dangers of one-by-one nationalization is that nationalizing one megabank will cause a run on the stock of all the others and could bring down banks that may be otherwise healthy. Right now, it's not clear which banks are solvent and which aren't. His advice is to wait until we more or less know, then nationalize the insolvent ones "in one fell swoop."

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?run on the stock of a bank?

How does market price affect company solvency?? It doesn't.

A run on the deposits of a bank would be a liquidity problem for a bank. Unless a bank holds its own stock as an asset, you have cause and effect backwards.

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