wizinit's Blog

Pay the Bill and Keep the Change

2009-01-31T16:23:37Z

Let's be honest. We didn't really expect Congress to come up with a "bold" stimulus plan, did we? But do we agree that NO action will only aggravate our current crisis?

The GOP surprised us when it failed to respond more constructively to the bipartisan overture from Barack Obama. I personally witnessed the precedent-setting bipartisan dinner for his defeated opponent (my photo of the President-elect at the dinner honoring McCain, January 19) and noted the subsequent meetings with Congressional Republicans. And what did we get in the way of proposals from the loyal opposition? More of the dogma-driven, supply-side ideology that contributed to our current mess: tax cuts!

On the other hand, GOP critics have a point: the bill that passed the House and was embraced by Obama essentially is an accumulation of favorite Democratic spending proposals.

What is missing is CHANGE. The CHANGE Obama advocated in his campaign for the Presidency. The CHANGE that won him a resounding mandate to govern for four years. The CHANGE from policies that have worked to benefit few and imperil many. Where are the first steps toward affordable health care, a sustainable green economy and alternative energy? And why are we not moving boldly to address the systemic failures that underlie the current crisis in credit markets?

Obama asked for ideas. And Paul Krugman and Robert Reich, among others, obliged. But what these brilliant men offer is predictable: rationales for orthodox Keynesian solutions and concern about labor market distortions, respectively. More is needed, not just in additional spending, but in fresh ideas that advance the President's policy agenda. So, if suggestions are still welcomed, here is my two-cents worth. And please do keep the CHANGE.

Health Care

Obama has promised the nation affordable health care similar to his own Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHBP), to be available to all by the end of his first term. There is no need to back off this goal. Health care is one of the largest drags on our economy and the stimulus bill provides a real opportunity to begin managing its cost. In addition to the bill's provisions to help state governments fund Medicare and work projects, I suggest that the federal government reimburse all state and local governments for their employer's share of health care for the rest of this year. In exchange, recipients may not fire government workers and must commit to integrating their health care plans with the existing FEHBP starting in 2010. That provides additional and immediate financial assistance to state and local governments, while paving the way for the establishment of a Public Employees Health Benefits Program. By January 2010, the federal government's negotiated health care program would expand its base and economies of scale. The next step will be to apply the system to businesses, and subsequently to capture the un- and under-insured.

Energy Independence

Most honest leaders recognize that in due course government will have to produce the substantial additional revenue to pay for the stimulus. But good luck finding a politician willing to propose increasing taxes of any kind. So let me suggest instead a hefty tariff on imported oil to fund the "green economy." A tariff of 50 percent or more on the landed cost of all imported energy (probably with some form of accommodation for our NAFTA partners) can be justified because of national security as well as the external costs to our environment inherent in the use of fossil fuels. And such a levy would promote conservation, subsidize domestic production, and help to fund and protect our investments in alternative energy. This is a measure that should be welcomed by Republicans who advocate "drill, baby, drill" as well as environmentalists interested in promoting clean energy. The windfall earned by American producers could be invested domestically or taxed as profits. And while there may be a marginal increase of fuel cost at the pump, it will pale in comparison with the amounts we forked over to foreign potentates rather than our own Treasury these past few years, when oil was effectively 200% greater than its current price.

Reestablish a 'Risk-Free' Investment Benchmark

Explanations for our current credit crisis and financial market meltdown abound, including the Washington Post's excellent series. But absent from all the expert analyses is any mention of the Treasury Department's October 2001 decision to discontinue issuing 30-year Bonds. That decision, on the heels of 9/11 and the cusp of Bush's costly war on terror, both lowered mortgage yields and prompted increased sales of bundled mortgages marketed as alternative 'risk-free' instruments, which in turn fueled the housing bubble and distorted both government and corporate credit point spreads. Treasury Bond auctions have resumed, but a clear provision to finance America's recovery through borrowing would repair yield spreads - both between short and long term sovereign debt and in relation to all other debt instruments. Transparent budget financing will help re-establish more realistic risk pricing and global confidence in the US economy. But the 30-year Bond will not regain its position as a benchmark for 'risk-free' long-term investment if Fed meddling in the market, as it proposes to do with its planned purchase of Treasuries from troubled banks. In fact, this central-bankers-gone-wild approach will only create a greater Treasury bubble that will seriously aggravate our problems. Once markets are allowed to properly price the cost and risk of our recovery without Fed manipulation, global confidence in the US economy has a chance to be recover.

So Pay the Bill, and Keep the CHANGE

Barack Obama attended his last inaugural event, the Staff Ball, at the DC Armory on January 21. But he arrived after a performance by the opening act, Arcade Fire. So here are some insightful lysircs from their "Intervention":

You say it's money that we need
As if we're only mouths to feed
I know no matter what you say
There are some debts you'll never pay

I believe, the message is relevant to the stimulus bill now before Congress. So let's act responsibly and cautiously:

Pay the Bill and Keep the CHANGE.

In Dreams I Wander Nameless Streets in Search of Faceless Voters

2008-11-11T19:22:35Z

Dear Friends:

To those of you who so kindly congratulated me for Tuesday's election outcome, as if Barack Obama's victory resulted from my personal and deeply committed efforts. I thank you for your generous comments.

To those who may have wondered how I fared in "radio silence" for six weeks on the Ohio battleground. Be assured that I survived.

To those who do not know me or are unfamiliar with my previous descriptions of the realities and ironies of the 2008 election. What follows is the final chapter of my life as a political activist, a missionary for democracy, an apostle of Change. Hopefully you will also understand how it is that for the first three nights after I returned home I woke up from the same dream in which I wander nameless streets in search of faceless voters.

The Buckeye State

On September 23 I joined the Ohio Campaign for Change as a member of its newly created Vote Corps. The invitation had warned of 14-hour days, seven days a week, right up through Election Day. I accepted because the Obama campaign considered this important enough to make it a paid position and because it was in the one state McCain had to win to become President.

I left home certain that my life experiences -- in retail sales, as diplomat and political officer, and Obama volunteer in seven states - would be useful in the Buckeye State. Stopping at Starbucks on the way out of Burlington that Sunday morning, I noticed the first trace of red on the outer edge of a leaf on a small maple tree in the parking lot. I realized that by the time I returned to Vermont the leaf peepers would have come and gone. Fortunately, it turned out to be a mild autumn in Ohio that showcased the Buckeye State's own colorful foliage.

The Akron Vote Corps

A hundred of us reported to Columbus for Vote Corps training and by the first night we were already deployed across the state. I was assigned to the city of Akron, birthplace of Cleveland Cavaliers star LeBron James and Pretenders' singer-songwriter Chrissie Hynde, who wrote about her birthplace in "My City Was Gone". The Akron Campaign for Change Office was headed by Regional Field Director Max Lesko. In charge of Summit and Portage Counties, he proved himself a very capable and genial manager. My hosts, Cathy and David, and their daughter Nicky, lived in a northwest suburb. Their friendship and cozy accommodations would be my home for the next six weeks.

At first the Akron Vote Corps consisted of six whites, from metropolitan DC, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Texas and California. Like most of the Obama staff and volunteers I met during the primaries, they were young and well-educated. In fact, I was two-and-a-half times their average age. By the end of the second week we lost one and gained five new members. Our new team-mates were all African Americans, from California, Texas and Georgia. Their average age was early forties and many had worked on Kerry campaign. One of my first initiatives was to buy half a dozen fingerless gloves for our new friends from the warm weather states. Our Vote Corps was rounded out by a "Lead," a young lawyer from Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown's Washington staff.

The Vote Corps' mission was to register voters, identify supporters and get out the vote for Barack Obama. Our primary targets were "Sporadics," first time voters and people who voted Democratic in the past, but did not always turn out. For a while we were also instructed to knock on every single door in a targeted neighborhood. I successfully resisted attempts to create competition within our group for most doors knocked, "Doors" being the campaign's primary measure for the work accomplished by staff and volunteers. My feeling was that competition focused on this imperfect metric would distort our effort, demoralize some members of our group, and sacrifice quality for quantity. For in the end, the real measure of our success would be the vote count on Election Day. And to that end, it was would be our diligence after the "knock" that would impact the outcome.

Registration

Our first task was registering new voters and re-registering people who had moved before the deadline of October 6. We knocked on doors and scoured bus stops and other public places to register as many people as possible. Most people were already registered, as they clearly understood the importance of this election. Those who had not yet done so enthusiastically signed up, particularly in the African-American community. My first Saturday in Akron, I missed my first grandchild's first birthday party back in Virginia. But my reward on that day was registering many first-time voters, including former felons who had recently regained the rights of other free men and women.

Many of our Sporadics were transients who frequently moved from one run-down Akron neighborhood to another. This city was in decline for a long time, and the recent economic downturn just aggravated conditions. In older residential neighborhoods there are a growing number of abandoned homes or houses soon to be vacated due to lost jobs or foreclosure. Many porches are marked by hand-painted signs announcing "Copper Already Stolen" or littered with trash by people who have given up. It is in this environment that we spread our message of Hope and Change.

Starting on September 30, we entered "golden week" when voters could both register and vote early. Ohio's new rules allowed "no fault" early voting by absentee ballot or in person. A single polling place was created for Summit County at the Job Center in northeast Akron. The Job Center is well-known, because job losses here have been ongoing there for many years. The building, also known by locals as "the old library," is next to another landmark, the County's Auto Title Office. For those without cars, bus number 12 took people there from downtown in 15 minutes.

Early Voting

Registration and early voting at the Job Center was very convenient. Open every day, including Saturday and Sunday, there were 50 polling booths and seating for voters waiting for their paper ballots. But many Ohioans, especially African Americans disenfranchised in previous elections were suspicious. They worried that ballots were going to "disappear," as reportedly happened in 2004 in Cuyahoga County. Overcoming these legitimate concerns required some persuasion. Our most important argument was: "Barack Obama wants his supporters to vote early." That usually did it. We helped to spread the word that this the process would protect, not suppress voting rights. And by November 3, the early vote turnout had grown from hundreds to thousands, the wait from 15 minutes to three hours.

By my third week I had developed a routine for creating a multiplier effect in conversation with early voters. Once they had made an Early Vote Commit, I introduced community organizing techniques to build on the widespread desire to help Obama get elected. Within the family, a grandparent or parent, or maybe the principal driver would agree to take responsibility for getting the entire household to vote early. I also encouraged that voters take along a relative or friend, or a neighbor who needed a ride.

Finally, I would make the following pitch:

"I'm working for Obama and I want you to work for him too. So I'm going to deputize you. No badge, no pay, just the satisfaction of knowing you helped to elect Barack Obama."

That always earned a smile. Then I continued:

"Now I'm sure you know someone who wouldn't vote unless you drag their lazy a-- to the Job Center to vote. Do you know anyone like that?"

I could tell when they were hooked. Eyes turned skyward. Faces revealed minds thinking of who they would get to early vote. A knowing smile indicated they knew exactly who they would take along. In closing I urged them to let everyone know how easy it was to vote at the Job Center and that Obama wanted them to do so. By the time I left their door, the early voter had been empowered and had taken ownership of the Obama campaign. Now it was their campaign too.

Get Out The Vote

During our last week in Ohio, the Vote Corps was dissolved. We were detailed to assist Field Organizers with their neighborhood teams of volunteers, which were part of the Ohio get out the vote (GOTV) strategy at the precinct level.

I was assigned to Barberton to work for Sol, an energetic field organizer from Texas. My main "turf" was the south Akron neighborhood of Kenmore. Unlike my earlier work with Sporadics in largely African American neighborhoods, I was instructed to "persuade" and "motivate" the remaining "Undecided" voters. But with Election Day closing in fast, there would only be minutes to talk to any single voter.

In Barberton and Kenmore, the Undecideds were predominantly white, working class Democrats. Most did not want to vote for McCain, but were not yet sure about Barack Obama. I understood their concern. Not only was Obama a relatively new and unknown political personality. Most of these voters had supported Hillary in the March primary. And like voters elsewhere, they were being bombarded with smear emails, Republican mailings about Ayers and NRA propaganda warning Obama would take away their guns.

With openly racist voters there was the curt "Thanks for your time." But it was not difficult to pull the other undecided voters off the fence, especially with the credibility of being an older white man with a knowledge of history and 23 years of federal service under five US Presidents. These voters knew that Obama and Hillary shared a common policy agenda and that she was campaigning hard for the Democratic ticket. They also recognized Rove tactics and our argument that: "They can't win with the truth, so they are attacking him with lies." Second amendment concerns were easily neutralized with Biden's quote: "No one's taking away my Beretta." But the simplest most effective argument was "Are you happy with the way things are going or do you want change?" And Change is what voters wanted more than anything this year.

Election Day

November 3rd and 4th were taken up with the final GOTV effort, primarily distributing door hangers and reminding voters of their polling places. From 3:30 pm on Election Day until it was too dark to read house numbers, I scoured for remaining undecided voters who had yet to cast their ballots. I actually found several and they agreed to go to their local poll station, which by then was no longer crowded.

I was at the Barberton volunteers' party at Lake Anna Hall when MSNBC announced Ohio for Obama. Having already won Pennsylvania, I knew it was all over except for reaching 270 electoral votes. While happy, I was so physically and mentally exhausted that the victory did not seem real. I headed back to my host family home and watched the candidates' speeches before turning in and resting for the long drive home. Now as my dreams of knocking on doors in Ohio recede, the enormity of our achievement and the challenges facing Barack Obama are coming into better focus. I have no idea what my next step will be, but I will continue to do what I can to get our country back on the right track.

Epilogue

After 40 days of walking the streets of Summit County, I had knocked on or distributed campaign literature at over 4000 doors.

More importantly, I had in-person conversations with more than 1500 voters and obtained about 1000 Early Vote Commits, which probably understates the number of people who were convinced to go to the Job Center. Along the way I also helped remove several hundred bad addresses from our "Turf," easing the task of later attempts by volunteers to find our voters.

The Akron Vote Corps' effort over five weeks contributed greatly to the early vote turnout, which by Election Day totaled 90,000, or fully one-third of the 272,000 ballots cast in Summit County. And while he won Ohio's 20 electoral votes with 51% of the state's popular vote, Barack Obama won Summit County with 57.45%.

Part II: Obama Roadmap to the White House

2008-06-16T01:23:06Z

The Candidate-Nominee Crossover

The first article in this series described how some of the most astute political observers were “blindsided by Hope” and Barack Obama’s historic victory, convinced America would continue to be ruled by Freak Show politics. Eleven organizational principles guided Obama’s campaign for the nomination, which relied heavily on grass roots and community organizing tactics. The successful “early states” strategy provided enough momentum to carry Obama over the finish line, a race he won by the only measure that counted: delegates.

This article offers a candid assessment of the campaign’s challenges as Obama goes from being a candidate to the nominee. Obama will adapt his management approach to the general election campaign, internalizing electoral strategy as an important part of the corporate culture. The internal challenge is melding a grass roots movement with the Democratic Party establishment and limiting expenditures on paid political ads and services. The external challenge is to avoid inevitable distractions and stay on message. Obama can reassure voters it is "safe" to vote for him by convincing them he can best promote their enlightened self-interest and through his selection of a running mate and naming a shadow cabinet. The result could be an historic and major pendulum swing in American politics.

You can read the full post at www.onemillionstrong.us.

Clinton's Sequel to the Willing Suspension of Disbelief

2008-06-06T23:44:23Z

Hillary the Inevitable

Like the rest of us, Barack Obama learned from the media that Hillary Clinton will announce the suspension of her campaign for the Democratic Party's nomination for President this Saturday. And while there is all sorts of gossip about what will happen next, for now the drama continues.

Just last week, Bill Clinton complained that he'd "never seen a candidate treated so disrespectfully just for running." Well look again, Bill. Because your wife just succeeded in performing a 10-point-perfect double-dis against Barack Obama. First she stiff-armed his historic claim to the party's nomination with her "victory" speech on Tuesday night. Then the next day she ignores the most basic courtesy of telling her party's nominee she is dropping out of the race. She even passed up the opportunity to do so in person at the AIPAC conference. What a class act!

All's not well in Hillarywood. The problem with this picture show is the "suspension of disbelief":

"In the world of fiction you are often required to believe a premise which you would never accept in the real world. Especially in genres such as fantasy and science fiction, things happen in the story which you would not believe if they were presented in a newspaper as fact. Even in more real-world genres such as action movies, the action routinely goes beyond the boundaries of what you think could really happen.

In order to enjoy such stories, the audience engages in a phenomenon known as "suspension of disbelief". This is a semi-conscious decision in which you put aside your disbelief and accept the premise as being real for the duration of the story.

Suspension of disbelief only works to a point. It is important that the story maintains its own form of believability and doesn't push the limits too far."

Hillary Clinton herself introduced the concept last September when told General Petreus that his Iraq progress report required "a willing suspension of disbelief." But then so did much of her production of "Hillary the Inevitable", which regularly stretched the imagination to convince the media and public that she really had earned the nomination.

For example, her suggestion that party caucuses are undemocratic, that caucus state voters don't count, or that popular votes including the unsanctioned primaries in Florida and Michigan determines the winner. For five months we almost forgot that the story was all about delegates. So we have to concede she put on a fine show.

Sure, there were those plot lines that just did not seem to work because the evidence was so obvious. Like landing under sniper fire at Tuzla, or the policy on drivers licenses for non-resident foreigners, or the gasoline tax holiday. But as always, the talented Clinton Producer-Director-Acting team gave us a performance that spanned the spectrum of emotions. In fact, those scenes, from tears in NH to that distinctive laughter at the debates, will live on in memory long after show is over.

Sequel: Dream Ticket

Before we have even seen the last episode of their previous production, here comes the sequel, in which Bill and Hillary decide she would make the ideal Vice President. But now the suspension of disbelief is really to be tested.

First item is the casting. We don't yet know what part if any Geraldine Ferraro, who in the original production effectively portrayed the angry-older-white-woman with a hint of racist rage, will be allowed to play this time around. It looks like Bill Clinton, who previously as the male lead pretentiously suggested Barack take the minor part as her running mate even though he was ahead by every measure, will have fewer lines and be assigned a far smaller role at best. This is bound to make the entire story far less exciting.

BET founder Bob Johnson has already proven himself entirely miscast as the supplicant to the Congressional Black Caucus for Hillary-as-running-mate, which was just plain unconvincing. And everyone will miss Terry McAuliffe (last seen doing shots of Bacardi with Mika Brzezinski, presumably on their way to rehab) and Howard Wolfson, both of whom should be way too busy selling their tell-nothing books in the months ahead.

However, the greatest challenge to the suspension of disbelief will be those plot lines we just skimmed over the last time around. There is that little matter of being "fully vetted" and 35 years of experience. For a start, the new script-writing team of Johnson, Kennedy and Holder will have to struggle with Hillary's first radical law work in San Francisco and the performance review of her part in the Watergate investigation. And of course there are all those comments she made about Barack Obama over the past several months.

It's also not clear how the next episode will treat the problems hinted at by Vanity Fair. Forget about undocumented sexual innuendo. After Sex in the City and Larry Craig in the Minneapolis airport, that part is probably a sleeper. No, I'm thinking of Bill's high-flying friends and library donors. And those hints of influence peddling disguised as speaking and consulting fees on the joint tax returns. Now those issues could be a real problem reconciling with Obama's political themes. And if Obama adheres to the "no-drama" genre of inspiring documentary, the Clinton sequel could well be scrapped for a lack of both political and financial support. Just stay tuned.

wizinit is the nom de guerre of a veteran diplomat who is a fan of the late columnist Art Buchwald and comedian Andy Borowitz. If you would like to be notified whenever wizinit posts serious analysis or political satire, click here to join.