The Incredibly Shrinking Paul Volcker, or: The White House Don't Need No Stinking Old-school Economics!
This photo shows Paul Volcker at the White House Economic Advisory Board, head in one hand, looking away from the President beside whom he is seated. He looks frustrated and dejected. He has a right to be.
Against the wall behind them sit Christina Romer and Larry Summers who looks like he is trying to suck an egg into his mouth through a hole in the top.
He served as Fed Chair from 1979-1987 under Carter and a time under Reagan, and apparently was effective at leading the nation out of some of the big crunches. Reagan fired him in 1987 and replaced him with Greenspan. He is the titular head of Obama's WHEAB, but has been reduced and sidelined to the point that he rarely comes to his office in D.C. any longer.
You will be able to guess why: He believes that regulation reform and oversight is going nowhere fast, and predicts that unless major changes are made in the way banking and Wall Street do business, the economy will likely crash again.
He apparently understands that the other advisors, including Austan Goolsbee, seem him as anachronism, a sentimental throw-back to Simpler Times. He would, no doubt, call them Saner Times. He wants Glsss-Steagall reinstated, or something akin to it, so that Commercial and Investment banking are heavily separated again. He wants the too-big-to fail banks broken up:
"The banks are there to serve the public," Mr. Volcker said, "and that is what they should concentrate on. These other activities create conflicts of interest. They create risks, and if you try to control the risks with supervision, that just creates friction and difficulties" and ultimately fails.
The only viable solution, in the Volcker view, is to break up the giants. JP Morgan would have to give up trading operations acquired from Bear Sterns. Bank of America and Merrill Lynch would go back to being separate companies. And Goldman Sachs could no longer be a bank holding company.
You probably already know that Goldman Sachs engaged in some might magic when, as an Investment Bank, it was permitted to become a holding company for Commercial Banking, therefore became eligible to receive FDIC coverage. Oy!
Joseph Stiglitz ,winner of a Nobel Prize in economics, agrees with Volcker, He was interviewed for this NY Times piece, and said that he agrees with Volcker, but knows that he is engaged in a Quixotic effort.
Even Alan Greenspan has called for the biggest banks to be made smaller, but certainly opposes re-instating anything like Glass-Steagall. Of course he would! Last night's Frontline described Greenspan as worshipping at the feet of Ayan Rand. There were interviews with Brooksley Born, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Board, who was an early alarm- sounder of credit default swaps. As we know, she was paid no heed. The Frontline is well worth watching.
As Fed Chair, Greenspan, appointed by Ronald Reagan of sainted memory, promoted de-regulation of banking as a cure-all for what ailed us. He must be proud that neither Congress nor the White House seems to want to do anything but tinker around the edges with reform even now. (Is there some keyboard combination that results in indicating "spitting" as you type someone's cursed name? No? Someone should invent one.) He said:
Taking issue implicitly with the Volcker proposal to split commercial and investment banking, he has said: "No form of economic organization can fully contain bouts of destructive speculative euphoria."
Translation? : So why even try???
The White House believes that their new regulations will fix it all, as do many other experts, and that the US needs big financial institutions to compete in the global market.
That contention seems to skirt the issue, though, doesn't it?
And meanwhile, while the White House continues to claim that Volcker has their ear, his advice and role have shrunk to a size that could fit on the head of a pin.
Mr. Volcker scoffs at the reports that he is losing clout. "I did not have influence to start with," he said.
The NY Times piece with the picture:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/21/business/21volcker.html?_r=2&hp
















Highly recommended, although I'd fix the part about Volcker serving as Fed Chair under Clinton in the eighties.
October 22, 2009 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, jeez, thank you, Ad! One article said it, and I never even thought to question it. That writer needed you for an editor, too. :-}
I literally had to google his bio to see where I went wrong.
October 22, 2009 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good post on an important topic.
I missed the Frontline last night. I'll have to catch it at pbs.org. As I understand it, Greenspan didn't just "worship at the feet" of Ayn Rand, but he actually slept with her. They were close, anyway.
Andrea Mitchel of NBC News is married to Alan Greenspan. Everybody knows that, right? (Fox News isn't the only source with a right wing bias problem.)
Volker is likely right. Nothing has changed, fundamentally, since we looked over the edge into the abyss last October. I expect we will have that crash again, and pretty soon. And the next time might not work out so well.
-- ARG
October 22, 2009 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't know Alan worshipped at her other parts! Oh, my. I didn't know until a few years ago Andrea was married to him. Ugh.
Frontline was grisly at watch by this point. A few people see so clearly what needs to happen; but the Chicago Boys rule. Too bad, maybe, Obama is from Chicago.
There were lots of photos on the Frontline with Rand in them. Shiver...
October 22, 2009 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good post, Wendy. Spot on.
I agree with Volcker. He has understood the American financial system since Carter appointed him to kill the stagflation that grew up under Nixon and Ford.
Remember Ford's WIN buttons, designed to influence the economic decision-makers not to raise prices in advance of expected inflation? WIN was Whip Inflation Now. Moral suasion didn't work. So Volcker took over the Fed and raised interest rates until no one was left who believed the Fed was going to permit inflation to get back. The recession Volcker created in the early 80's was at that time the worst since the Great Depression.
Sadly, Volcker let up on interest rates in 1983 so that the economy bounced back in 1984. That allowed Reagan to win reelection. The state of the economy during the year before the Presidential election is the most certain predictor of whether the current party holding the Presidency will retain it or not.
But Volcker does understand the American economy, unlike Greenspan, Laffer and the free market boys.
October 23, 2009 1:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I also read that Volker's high interest rates cause hardship for farmers, and that's why the tractor march on Washington happened, and discussions of "parity for farmers."
October 23, 2009 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and Wendy,
I really like that bird picture you have.
October 23, 2009 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
He is a Western Tanager, a cousin of Scarlet Tanager. One of my faves. I lure them in with grapes. They travel from Central America to Canada, and soometimes stop for some good fruit. This year only this one (I think this is he) stopped, disappointingly. Some songbirds' numbers are decreasing alarmingly.
October 23, 2009 8:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great post Wendy. It shows what a real fiscal conservative is. The GOP seems to think that endless tax cuts and increased spending represent fiscal conservatism. Nothing could be further from the truth.
FYI, as a serious birder for over 30 years, I can tell you for sure that your Western Tanager is a he.
October 23, 2009 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
What's the tree the bird is sitting in? It looks like a northern evergreen of some kind. I recall seeing something similar but I don't recognize this one.
October 23, 2009 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wendy, did you remove your blog about requesting some help? I ask because I had a dialog going with another member where we were conversing about that and it has now disappeared. It is fine with me if you removed it. I just want to know if that is the case as opposed to it having disappeared for some unknown reason.
What I find a little odd about this is if someone deletes a blog post it is my thinking that comment posts that are logically linked to that blog should also go away. This includes the idea they should no longer show up on a dashboard.
In database speak, comment posts, in the absence of the blog which they are child records of, become orphan records in the system because their parent record no longer exists. This is atypical behavior.
October 23, 2009 4:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, dear. I thought I was doing the right thing unpublishing it. I had said initially that I would, and once my problem was solved, I told a would-be new blogger I would leave it up until his questions were answere satisfactorily. It took me awhile because of Slow Brain Syndrome to Unpublish, rather than delete. I was trying to make room for more blogs, as I thought people said there was only so much room available.
I didn't mean to behave badly. I'll check, but it all should still be there. My apologies.
October 23, 2009 7:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here it is, it was still on my blog:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/cgi-bin/mt-current/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&id=297501&blog_id=9453
Had you looked and not seen it there? I am not sure how all this works, but I would have assumed you could have clicked on it to read it. Would you like me to re-publish it to further your discussions, or is that a no-no?
October 23, 2009 7:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Wendy. I really wanted to read the last response from kgb666 because it contained some pertinent information.
And yes. A blog can only be viewed if the owner / author publishes it. Nobody can read or otherwise access the blog of another that is not published to the public area. To republish is not a problem at all. I do wonder though that when you do it if the comments previously posted to the particular blog will reconnect themselves as child records belonging to that parent record blog. I suspect that will in fact be the behavior.
October 23, 2009 8:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Should I put it up again, and explain? I am confused! (she whined.) Did you access it from the above link? Were the comments there? I'll click, too.
October 23, 2009 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you republish it with the same old time-stamp, it shouldn't reappear up top of the reader page, but it should be visible to people trying to access old comments.
October 23, 2009 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okey-doky, Obey-wan. And thank you sooo much for trying to help me. I aplogize that my brain couldn't do what you show me. One problem was that i mistook your instructions about the parenteses needing to be replaced with pointy ones. I thought you meant the pointy brackets, not the > thingies.
By the by, do you pronounce Obey as Oh-bee, or Oh-bay? I was going with the former in my mind.
I will wait to repost it if TPC wants me too.
Plus, would you like bird pictures for your help?
I don't know what you would DO with them, but it's what I have.
October 23, 2009 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Wendy, - how'd you get the pic into this blog?
Sorry if my explanations weren't too clear - I'm no techie, but I can sympathize with your troubles. People tried to help me when I was learning this stuff and it took me ages just to understand what they meant by 'disable rich text', etc.
I'd love some bird pics - my email is
sextusempiricus@live.com, if you can't get them up in a blog...
(But, if you can do Volcker pictures, you can do birds, no?)
October 23, 2009 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here is what finally did it for me:
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2009-10-21-ObamaVolker-thumb.jpg
Start with a new blog, click on the little icon at the far right of the tool bar that looks like ... paste the above HTML code in the empty box. Then click on the underlined "A" icon on the tool bar to get back to the WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get) view. You should have your picture with a blank line above and below the image that you can use to proceed to fill in text around it. One note, I sometimes have to push the "Tab" key to get my cursor to appear when switching back to the WYSIWYG mode (that might just be a Firefox thing).
You can use that snippit for other pictures by simply replacing the URL of the "src=" attribute. I know your original question was about WinWord ... I can't help you there, but that should at least get the thing into your blog. If you want to change the size of the image, just change the % value in the "height=" and "width=" attributes (note: make sure not to accidentally delete the "%"). Obviously, change the "alt=" text to whatever you want.
Geek Note: The MovableType platform really sucks out of the box. I'm not sure where Josh got the idea it's "state of the art" ... TPM could probably make it much better by simply installing a plugin or two but don't seem to feel the need.
Posted by kgb999
October 22, 2009 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
And:
I see you already posted the blog ... in that case, you should be able to just edit it and following the directions above, paste the snippit at the very top of the text in the HTML view (the icon switches to HTML view). Of course you could paste it anywhere in the text, but it kind of looks like you wanted it at the top.
Maybe I should repost the thing incase others could use the help?
October 23, 2009 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
That looks alot easier than my painful method!
Could you just tell me me what comes after the three little dots in
"the little icon at the far right of the tool bar that looks like..."
;0)
October 23, 2009 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Wendy, - how'd you get the pic into this blog?
Sorry if my explanations weren't too clear - I'm no techie, but I can sympathize with your troubles. People tried to help me when I was learning this stuff and it took me ages just to understand what they meant by 'disable rich text', etc.
I'd love some bird pics - my email is
sextusempiricus@live.com, if you can't get them up in a blog...
(But, if you can do Volcker pictures, you can do birds, no?)
October 23, 2009 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, it can't be accessed it unless you republish.
October 23, 2009 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, there was a button to the right of it: Comments. They seem to all be there. Let me know what you'd like me to do.
October 23, 2009 8:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hi Wendy, good to see some talk of this financial reform stuff coming back.
Reinstating Glass-Steagal comes pretty far down my list of priorities.
I get the basic reasoning behind it - you don't want to have a government-funded insurance program, like we currently do, for investment banks who are simply 'gambling' on asset prices. For such an insurance program ensures that they get the upside and the tax-payer pays for any losses.
My problem is just that I don't think you can get a clean distinction between who is 'gambling' and who is 'investing'. ALL banks - commercial and investment - are in the business of borrowing money - through deposits or otherwise - to buy financial assets, whether these are straight loans or something more complex. And commercial banks were no safer in their 'investments' than investment banks were in their 'gambles'.
The problem with the current setup is that no one knows how to evaluate any bank's risk profile - because so many assets are so hard to value, and so many balance sheets are so opaque that we don't really know what kind of risks they are exposed to. We had to bail out the whole system last year not because we knew all these banks were in trouble, but precisely because no one knew who - if anyone - would take an outsized loss when AIG or Lehman went down. Because every bank's derivatives exposure is a big black box, anyone and everyone might have imploded.
So basically, you need some way to make the whole system more transparent. And the banks are fighting that whole idea tooth and nail because they would lose this precious government-subsidized insurance scheme they've had for the last 30 years.
People forget - before the 'Bernanke put' (the 'all means necessary to save big banks'), there was the Greenspan put, and before that there was the Volcker put. Volcker was the one who started the whole bail-out culture when there was a problem with Latin-American sovereign bonds in 82. So it's nice to hear him slamming the current inaction on the financial regs front, just as it is nice to hear Greenspan arguing for more serious measures. But he's really not all that credible, nor is he making sense on this.
October 23, 2009 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
The key to Glass-Steagall is that for some banks the government insures deposits against loss. That's what the FDIC does. It protects the deposits we all place in banks, but unfortunately it also insures the banks when they fail.
The bank takes investor money, reinvests it in other investments, and pays the investor interest out of the profit they make. The bank's profit is skimmed off the top. That's the basic business model of banking and has been for centuries.
Depositors/Investors come in two flavors. Most have comparatively small amounts and simply have to take whatever services the bank offers. They are storing their money for later and do not have the time or expertise needed to evaluate the danger of putting money into a bank. Banks are in big solid buildings. They will be there forever. The other flavor is the big money investor who wants to buy the investment expertise of the bankers. These investors compare banks for the largest and safest return, always recognizing that larger returns are inherently less safe. Those two different classes of investor require different services and need very different banking institutions.
Depositors are just small "investors" who have money they want to store for later, and they don't have the expertise or the total amount of money avail needed to do what the bankers do in investing that money. Similarly, a lot of the investments are like small business loans, car and appliance loans, personal loans, and so on. These are small and not highly profitable transactions, but they make up a great deal of the economy. That's especially true for the middle class. They are also routine transactions that occur in a money economy and require no real banking expertise. But they keep the economy working.
So the government provided FDIC to guarantee the deposits if the bank fails. This lowered the interest banks had to pay for the deposits because the risk premium was removed from the transaction. Glass-Steagall limited the risks banks could take with the government insured deposits so that commercial banks had less risk of failure. Commercial banks had both the protection for depositors and regulation that made the banks themselves less risky. Without the regulation, FDIC was actually insuring the banks against the risk they took to make their profits.
Banks want to use the low-cost insured deposits as a base from which to make very risky and extremely profitable investments. That means keeping the FDIC insurance, but stripping out the bank regulation. That's what Phil Graham's removal of Glass-Steagall did, and it set up the financial collapse and the rape of the taxpayer we have witnessed and suffered from over the last decade.
And yes, making the investment banks like Goldman Sachs into government insured banks to save them as was done last year did exactly what the banks wanted. The banks now have low-cost insured deposits to supply the money they invest in risky and high profit investments. It puts the taxpayers on the hook for bank losses because they are now government insured, while the bankers collect all the profits when their risky investments work.
It works because the banks involved are so large that their failure is very likely to take the entire economy down with them. That's the "Too Big to Fail" business. The government can't renege on the insurance they have guaranteed, no matter how idiotic the bank investments turn out to be. The entire economy is held hostage to the predations of the Wall Street Bankers. This situation is the great banking the bankers are getting record bonuses for conducting.
We need Glass-Steagall back again. It takes that kind of regulation and supervision to keep commercial banks from using low-cost insured deposits for high-risk, high-return gambles.
Investment banks will not do the job done by commercial banks. It's not profitable enough. So the commercial banks are essential to keeping the routine financial transactions that make economy work going. Glass-Steagall is what creates a separate class of commercial banks. That law or something like it is absolutely required to take the banking risk out of the entire economy and limit it to the big money investments where it belongs.
October 23, 2009 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hi Richard. Thorough as always!
I still don't see how Glass-Steagall would have (i) prevented the bubble from occuring, and/or (ii) prevented the crisis when the bubble popped.
October 23, 2009 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good questions. Here's what I think happened. The problem was not just the removal of Glass-Steagall. It was a lot of other things also, the biggest single problem being Alan Greenspan and Ayn Rand.
The thing is that there are routine commercial transactions and then there are big money and more risky investments. The two need to be separated.
Besides the commercial - investment bank split, we also have the process of collecting individual mortgages and bundling them into massive big money investment vehicles. That caused the money itself to jump between the two kinds of banks. When the commercial banks bought bundled mortgage obligations, they were entering investment bank territory and investing low-price insured deposits to do it.
A big part of the problem was the fraudulent ratings that the bundled mortgage packages were being given by the rating agencies. Again, the difficulty was the lack of transparency and failure to regulate the rating agencies. That's in addition to the free market idiocy espoused by Greenspan, of course. But with the lack of public data, no one could build a case to show he was full of shit.
A lot of people knew there was a bubble, and they knew that mortgage lenders and their banks were issuing and bundling bad mortgages. But mortgage lenders were not and are not regulated, and the mortgage banks were using secrecy and paying off the rating agencies to pass the crap into the investment bank realm.
Once there was a bubble, it was going to bust. But the "sophisticated" investors themselves did not have enough data to see what they were getting into. So they trusted the sales-turkeys who were pushing the products, and they trusted the academics who convinced them that the derivatives were providing insurance that protected them. Only what was happening was that the risky stuff was being shunted off into dark closets that grew to rather amazing size because there was no overall regulator and no system-level data being collected by anyone. Frankly it could be made into a very funny comedy movie, with the final bursting of the closets and the spread of the crap all over everyone being the climax of the movie.
Glass-Steagall is the beginning. Greater regulation over the system is at least equally critical, but without a Glass-Steagall separation between commercial and investment banks, the high-profits of the big money investments will contaminate the entire financial system and make routine commercial transactions more risky than they have to be. But once the bubble does exist, it has to be burst. The sooner the better.
Frankly I always thought that Greenspan created the dot com bubble in the late 1990's by trying to artificially inflate the US economy to keep the Asian financial collapse from taking the world economy down. It may have worked. But then he had to protect the Bush administration from the collapse of the dot com bubble he had created, so he lowered interest rates to a ridiculous level and created the mortgage bubble. He got Bush reelected in 2004 with his low interest rates and the growing housing bubble.
Then he started raising interest rates in February 2005 and choked off the housing bubble. That brought on the Great Recession which has exposed all the other failures in the economy. The absence of Glass-Stegall, the frauds by the mortgage lenders and the rating agencies, the frequent frauds by financial sales people selling risky investments to pension plans and others who needed secure investments, the idiocies of the products sold by AIG and others, all this was exposed when Greenspan shut down his easy money strategy and ended the housing bubble.
The problem was the total lack of regulation of the entire financial industry. Glass-Steagall was just one element of the problem, though it was a big element.
I'd also suggest that no one could be Fed chair for more than eight to ten years. Greenspan's 18 years were simply too long.
October 23, 2009 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I certainly will cede expertise on your part, Obey. I am a nubie on anything financial. I only started a cram course when it was apparent that things were about to fall apart.
From what many have said, I thought that transparency on the commercial banks was easier, and that with FDIC backstopping, regulators could be more useful in requiring them to use sound practices and capitalization. Since the de-regulators seem to be winning the reform argument so far, and the opaque financial instruments are so difficult to find or understand, at least separating the two would have strong merit. I thought that Goldman Sach (and Maybe Merrill?)being allowed by the Fed to become a holding company for commercial banking was a severe blow to the taxpayer, so when I heard Volker and Kuttner and Elizabeth Warren and Reich and Simon Johnson calling for re-instating the firewalls between the two, it made total sense to me. Most of the same people want investigations a la Pecora, too.
Volcker perhaps IS responding now to errors he was part of; Greenspan's comments have been so ironic from where I sit (which is admittedly in the Naiive NOvice chair). (Gotta get me an Eames, instead.)
I will re-read your comments, as you know sooo much more about all this than I do.
Your comment about how inscrutable the investment records are is a hugely important key to increased regulation. None of us wants to keep paying for profit-games of selling and re-selling bundles of crap loans and calling it Success.
October 23, 2009 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with everything you say. It's just that reinstating Glass-Steagall solves nothing. My usual question for any reform-policy is, would it have helped mitigate the crisis we just had and/or prevent any future one? And that particular suggestion does nothing in my book. Wamu, Wachovia and other straight commercial banks would have gone down. Straight investment banks that got in trouble would have posed as much of a systemic risk.
What if you limit the size of Ibanks? Well, they'll be just as systemically important individually if they all stay as interconnected through opaque OTC derivatives as they presently are.
What if you up the capital requirements on Ibanks? Well, they'll just up their risk-profile through OTC derivatives (as GS is currently doing).
What if you put derivatives on an exchange? It just isn't viable unless margin requirements are upped to the point where derivative products aren't viable themselves.
The only serious option is to regulate derivatives to the point where the whole market for them pretty much gets choked off. And no one seriously expects that to happen because of industry resistance.
Which means all of the reforms likely to happen just amount to window-dressing. And I suspect that all this talk of leverage ratios and Glass-Steagall is just a manufactured diversion to make people think 'Something Serious Is Being Done'.
October 23, 2009 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I made my case for the reinstatement of Glass-Steagall or something like it to recreate two classes of banks again. I agree with your objections to the extent that a Glass-Steagall law simply isn't enough.
Derivatives are not themselves the problem. Ask any farmer who buys futures before planting their crop to guarantee they can make a profit. The problem is "derivatives" which are actually private gambling contracts with no basis in the real economy and which are hidden from the public. Every bet in that market is a secret contract (guaranteed by law) between two parties using idiosyncratic language and standards so that it can't be compared with and aggregated with others that are similar. A structured market with regulation regarding the allowable terms and demanding publication of the details immediately would have clearly shown the risks that AIG was taking.
Hell, Goldman-Sachs knew what those risks were and bought all kinds of contracts because they were nearly sure bets against AIG. It was only a matter of time until they collected and they knew it. So they hid the whole damned market from the public and the analysts.
Derivatives are just insurance. That's all they are. And they have to be regulated like insurance. It'll never be perfect. How many "insurance companies" sell insurance they can't pay off? With regulation, there are still some every year, but not enough to totally destroy the market.
Without enforced regulation there is very little mass market for insurance at all. That's any and every kind of insurance. Health, life, auto and property, whatever. Mass markets in those products exist only because of government regulation. Anyone who says otherwise simply doesn't understand the markets or the products. We are all paying today for a promise later on. Why do we trust the company to pay off? At the margin, it is because the salesman is regulated and licensed and the companies are regulated and inspected. When they aren't you get the scams like burial insurance that people pay for for years and then the funeral home goes out of business.
Capital requirements? Those are the amounts of money that have to be saved to protect against anticipated losses. Insurance companies exist to measure historical losses, estimate the required capital needed to protect the system and then sell memberships in the system. The margin between the capital required the the cost of joining the system is enough to create a reason for insurance companies to exist. But unless you are an actuary, that margin is literally invisible. And the whole damned system exists because there is enough data on losses to model the risks mathematically. A better argument for transparency and against the risks of financial secrecy would be hard to make.
The real problem is that all those things that can be made to work require an overall system manager who is not profiting off the system. That's the government. And as we know, the government can be captured by the industry itself. That's what happened when Phil Gramm removed Glass-Steagall. Other than extreme transparency and criminalizing most financial secrecy I don't really know what to do about that. It's impossible to develop a system that an idiot operator can't screw up.
October 23, 2009 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me add that while you can't stop an idiot operator from screwing up any system, you CAN collect enough data to see how often it happens and insure against it. Which only works if the losses are not catastrophic and capable to taking the whole system down, of course.
October 23, 2009 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
A lot in your comments Richard. Here's my counterfactual scenario. Glass-Steagall remains in place and the US financial system stays divided up between commercial banks and investment banks. Yet, in the interests of market efficiency, we let commercial banks use derivatives in the interests of pushing risk off their balance sheet, and investment banks are allowed to lever up 30-40x equity. The bubble grows as the same dodgy residential and commercial RE loans and consumer credit is extended by commercial banks who then use derivatives to off-set the increased risk and thereby stay within risk-adjusted capital ratio limits. THen the crisis hits, and a few commercial banks go down - which is no big problem. But then the derivative exposure concentrated in big investment banks threaten to bring down the whole system as the 'safe' commercial banks find themselves with possibly insolvent derivative counterparties. So the government has to move in and save the Ibanks.
The overall problem was the unbelievable amount of debt in the system relative to capital, and even those slim equity levels inflated by the debt money in the system. And the whole financial system ends up operating like one big bank in large part because they become so interrelated through the derivative market, but also because a significant fall in asset prices - which is what would happen if a big player goes under - puts them all into insolvency.
Derivatives do not function as 'insurance'. As currently used, they serve to hide risk in the system. Which is a kind of meta-insurance, since when the risk is hidden and people get fearful, it is seen as being everywhere. No bank is regarded as safe.
There is a good use derivatives can be put to. But it would involve a market about 1/1000 the size of the present one. Which is what I mean by killing off the present derivatives market.
October 24, 2009 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I completely agree. You make very good points.
The building up of debt on debt is much like what was done in the 1920's. And the derivative market in which derivatives are sold on derivatives and the whole thing is pyramided on top of leveraged debt in some ways resembles the pyramiding of holding companies in the 1920's.
It was compounded by the lack of oversight and total absence of reporting standards, again resembling the economy in the 1920's. And as long as I am comparing to the 20's, there was also a massive drive to cut taxes on the wealthy and replace them with regressive sales taxes during the 1920's, too.
Speaking of the lack of accounting standards, the Financial Accounting Standards Board still has not done a very good job of dealing with the off the books subsidiaries such as those that both built Enron, Worldcom, etc and also that brought them down. But it was a political deregulation world by people in politics who didn't want to know the facts and both concealed and ignored them when possible.
I think the fed policies of inflating the money supply were similar also, although I haven't dug into that subject yet. It inflated the stock market in the 1920's just as it did when Greenspan kept the interest rates low and created the dot come and the housing bubbles. The Florida real estate bubble (and scams) back then was very similar to the recent bubble, just more geographically localized.
You are right that derivatives have not functioned as insurance, although they were sold to be such. The reason they were not is that there were no capital reserves to support losses, a complete absence of standardized products, no financial reporting standards at all, and no regulation. Also, it seems unreasonable to me that you could have an insurance market offering real insurance against losses in the real market and have the total market for the insurance to be many times larger than the market that is supposedly being insured.
As I say, instead of being insurance it was a massive casino, and most of the players didn't have the stake to cover their potential losses. That kind of gambling is bad news in a five person poker game, let alone a world-wide financial market.
The existing mass insurance markets cannot exist without those elements (reserves, tight regulation on both sales processes and on products sold, adequate financial reporting standards, etc.) The derivative market was not insurance.
It was instead a massive casino for gambling, with no established rules for the games. We don't allow that in the casinos we permit to operate. Ask the Nevada Gaming Commission. They work to remove the Mafia, too. That's another element of regulation that needs to be considered on Wall Street.
Essentially the Wall Street banks convinced the politicians to let them run wild, and a lot of politicians became millionaires as a result. The many resemblances to the 1920's have surprised me.
And finally, there is the clear resemblance between the administrations of Coolidge and Hoover and that of George Bush. Let the bankers run free, to Hell with the average Americans and pick up as much money as you can on the way through and after holding political office. And whatever you do, don't even consider government action to protect the economy. Adam Smith's magic hand will do that automatically. But I'm just ranting in this paragraph. We all know this is true.
Thanks for this very informative discussion.
October 24, 2009 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink