A week from today the election will be over. Most people, even McCain supporters, think that Obama will win and maybe by a huge margin. That remains to be seen and I hope it is true. But even if Obama loses a squeaker election it is amazing to me what he has accomplished. Who would have thought that he had much of a chance even to win the Democratic nomination? Maybe in 2012 or later but not really in 2008. Most people, even Republican strategists, thought Hillary Clinton was going to be the nominee. I think that is part of what went wrong with McCain's campaign...they were geared up and ready to face the wrong nominee. But Senator Obama came on in a relentless campaign. He pushed when he needed to push and pulled when he needed to pull. This was like a political martial arts performance. When your opponent is falling, get out of his way.
But the quality and content of his message is a key factor. He was criticized early in the campaign for not going into detail on some of his proposals. He revealed details as he saw fit...on his own time. He didn't do it when most people were not paying attention, He stayed on topic and waited until it got to be a critical message because that is when more people are listening and you can tie it to what is happening in the economy or Iraq or whatever. Your opponent also can't criticize something that you haven't said.
The timing was important but the clarity of the message seemed to be there as well. This was in contrast to what McCain was doing and Sarah Palin didn't help him at all. Her effect was to dilute McCain's message. Instead of talking about the merits of McCain's message everyone was debating Sarah Palin's abilities. Everyone except Obama, that is, who stayed on topic and kept hammering away at McCain. A lesser candidate would have been pulled into the Palin tarpit and would have looked worse as a result.
Obama also gives the impression of steady leadership, something that McCain was unable to counter. The whole Maverick thing worked against McCain because it made him look unstable and unpredictable. The label only worked against Bush but if the voters were already going to repudiate Bush (a sub-plot in McCain's own campaign) the Maverick label carried little weight. It only made them look toward Obama...for real change.
Obama has made inroads with voter groups and geographic regions that I never thought was possible. I don't think it is all the economy. North Carolina and Virginia might both go for Obama. Places like Georgia and Montana will probably still go for McCain but I'm stunned at how well Obama is doing. He has become so familiar that he seems like somebody they know. He has stopped being a threat to most people who first might have seen him as a threat. That is why the Republicans and right-wingers are coming unglued with the wild charges and insane rumors. They are trying to reinsert the threat factor that seems to be fading away.
It is common to hear pundits and even Colin Powell say that Obama is a "transformational" candidate. That might be setting the bar too high...this is the United States but we don't seem very united most of the time. His actual abilities will become apparent as time and events play out. Obama has come a long way and we have come with him. He has gotten past the "foot in the door" stage....he is sitting in the living room and about to drink a cup of coffee out of the good china.
