There is a certain pallor evident among my Republican neighbors these days. I live in a "red" area in a "blue" congressional district so my Republican neighbors usually tend to be more demonstrative of their candidate preferences.  My state representative lives in the same block so his signs are always everywhere but this year I'm seeing a reduced enthusiasm for posting McCain signs. It seems that only when someone feels bold enough to put up an Obama sign do my Republican neighbors feel they must react and put up a corresponding McCain sign. I guess they are afraid that if the Obama sign goes unanswered someone might get the wrong impression about their "redness". People seem to be allowed to put up signs for other Democratic candidates but if the Obama sign goes up there has to be a response. 

I've seen blog posts and heard statements about the possible demise of the Republican party if McCain takes a serious beating. I've even written one myself - but on further consideration I think that rumors of the GOP's death are premature. Don't forget the saying that all politics are local. My neighbors are still going to be Republicans.  Even if they don't have a viable national organization they will still have a strong local voice and push for local Republican candidates....maybe.

I suspect that the only thing that would really drive a stake in the GOP's heart is a rupturing along regional and/or ideological lines.  McCain will be the goat and catch the blame for a loss even though he is only partially responsible (exit McCain).  Sarah Palin is a schemer and back-stabber. She has already taken shots at McCain.  She seems to be driving a wedge into the GOP with the religious warriors and Kulture Kossacks lining up behind her. If there ends up being a "Palin wing" of the party I would expect a struggle to develop for party control.  Much of the rest of the GOP is appalled at Palin's selection and her mis-underperformances.  She is viewed as a disaster.  When McCain is tossed aside, Palin and George Bush will be the GOP's only shining stars.  At some point somebody (Romney, Thompson, Giuliani, Schwarzenegger, or who???) will try to start a parade of rational GOPers away from the Palin camp, tiptoe past the McCain debris and back to planet Earth.   Where Bush lands in all this rubble might be the key to holding things together but I don't see him as a big unifying presence. I'm really wondering what the individual state GOP organizations would do. There are some very loose cannons at that level. Things could get pretty unsettled in my neighborhood if the national GOP ruptures.    OK, I'll vote for that.

I was dozing through the world series (game 1) when an Obama commercial came on -- except it was an anti-Obama ad sponsored by "Democrats For Principle Before Party".  I'm not familiar with this group, which is apparently affiliated with "The Denver Group", whatever that is.  The ad manages to compare Obama to Richard Nixon and has a punch line of "Would you buy a used car from this man".   

Puzzled, I looked them up on the web....they want donations sent to  "The Denver Group 2118 Bancroft Place N.W. Washington, D.C. 20008."  Heidi Li Feldman, the doofus in charge, is apparently a disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporter out on a crusade to cripple Obama's campaign.

This ad was aired in Missouri but the web page says they are targeting Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

We are seeing a large segment of the voters casting their ballot early or by mail....maybe 25% will vote early (I'm guessing and I could be way off). What impact will that have on the exit polls that I'm sure the networks and polling organizations will be doing on election day? Even if the networks don't use exit poll data to project a winner, we would still like to have reliable information to use for election analysis after the election. Some states don't allow early voting. In my state I can't even get an absentee ballot without having a "good" reason.

I have to hope that this is taken into account and some statistical tools or models are applied on the major races. Models can't be created to fit every race. In states where early voting is permitted a close congressional race or a state-level race might be substatntially decided before election day and we won't know why the vote broke one way or the other if we just look at election day statistics..

I like early voting and I think we should re-think our election process and make it a multi-day election or move it to a weekend. Anything that we can do to get more people voting is a positive change. As an old statistician and researcher I just wish there was a good way to collect data as the vote was being cast by people who are actually voters. We could benefit from knowing how the demographics lined up on election day compared to the tracking polls.

Colin Powell is one of the few Republicans that seems to have some level of universal respect...maye not as much as before the UN-Iraq episode but I still think people will at least listen to what he has to say. His endorsement of Obama and the reasoned explanation of how he came to that decision will carry some weight with a certain group of undecided voters.

I think some people are fence-sitters and are looking for a reason to vote one way or another. McCain's campaign is trying to smear Obama by using race, religion, terrorism, inexperience and instability arguments. Powell took on some of the worst of these smear-campaign claims that are being passed around and dismissed them as absolute lies and as un-American. I think that is the first time I've heard anyone say that as strongly in a full public statement. 

The man is also a General and his assessment and military experience could also help with some voters. I'm glad he came off the sidelines because he had something significant to add to the debate.