In other words I predict Obama will win by 6.5% to 9.5%, with my best bet being 8%. This prediction is based closely on what I consider to be the strongest election prediction tool: the RCP poll average, which right now it stands at 7.5% but I moved it up a bit to 8% to account for possible underestimation of the African American vote.

In this post I will only mention by name those battleground states whose outcomes I feel certain about.

Obama will not lose any states won by Kerry, obviously. He will flip several red states, including IA, VA and CO and others.

IN, GA and AZ will go for McCain, contrary to the opinion of some.

I just don't see him beating the Republican in his red home state, regardless of the victory margin.

Admittedly, Indiana is on its way to turn blue, but not yet. It goes to McCain.