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Week of April 20, 2008 - April 26, 2008

North Carolina Republicans pull anti-Obama ad


NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - North Carolina's Republican Party on Thursday withdrew an advertisement critical of Democrat Barack Obama's links to a controversial preacher, Republican John McCain's campaign said.

McCain senior adviser Charlie Black said he had been informed by the Republican National Committee's representative in North Carolina, that the state party had agreed to withdraw the ad.

McCain, the Republicans' presumptive presidential nominee, had appealed to the state party to withdraw the ad, saying he wanted to run a respectful campaign.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2429689820080424

Obama: 54,000 Donations in the 24 Hours Since the Primary was Called


I have been casually tracking Obama's contributions over the past 24 hours. Last night the count past through 1,375,000 mark. This evening at about 8:30 the count was 1,428,959. Obama's average donation is about $96. That's about 5 million in the past 24 hours. That doesn't include off-internet contributions. In the late afternoon, using the $96 per contribution estimate, he was clocking over 1/4 of a million per hour. It looks like Obama is doing fine.

Of course who knows what misspeaking Hillary's numbers really are.

Gallup Daily: Obama 50%, Clinton 42% Nationally


Gallup Daily: Obama 50%, Clinton 42% Nationally

69,000 Who Voted for Hilary Say They'll Vote for McCain in General - Why?


I posted this originally at 4 in the morning but am now reposted with some edits. From CNN's exit polls, it looks like 10% of voters who voted in this primary intend to vote for McCain in the general. It looks like they asked if the general was Clinton vs. McCain, then  81% would vote for Clinton, 10% McCain. 10% of primary voters equals 230,000 voters. 3 out of 10 of the 230,000, that is 69,000 voters, voted for Clinton. It looks like 69,000 of those who voted for Clinton are planning to vote for McCain in the general election. Does anyone have any ideas why?

Did some of them vote that way just because they like Hillary more? Would they prefer to have McCain run against Hillary? Have they been listening to Rush's operation Chaos. By helping Hillary win, they get a candidate that is likely to unit the Republican base.

Here are the numbers.
Vote for President in November
                         Clinton - Obama
Clinton (81%)      62%       38%
McCain (10%)    30%       70%

Did 69,000 Vote for Hilary in Order to Help McCain?


From CNN's exit polls, it looks like 10% of voters who voted in this primary intend to vote for McCain in the general. It looks like they asked if the general was Clinton vs. McCain, then  81% would vote for Clinton, 10% McCain. 10% of primary voters equals 230,000 voters. 3 out of 10 of the 230,000, that is 69,000 voters, voted for Clinton. It looks like 69,000 of those voters, voted for Clinton because they wanted to prolong the primary season and/or help Hillary win. By extending the primary season they keep the democrats fighting themselves. By helping Hillary win, they get a candidate that is likely to unit the Republican base. Did Rush Limbaugh succeed in getting voters to screw with the democratic primary?

Here are the numbers.
Vote for President in November
                         Clinton - Obama
Clinton (81%)      62%       38%
McCain (10%)    30%       70%

If true that the results of the primary would change significantly. Removing those 69,000 voters would change the vote totals to

Clinton - 1,189,245 - 53%
Obama - 1,042,297 - 47%

Obama Retakes Gallup Poll Lead


After losing an 11 point lead last week in Gallup's daily tracking poll Barack Obama has regained the lead over the past two days. Todays poll shows Obama ahead 49-42. The bulk of the loss occurred the day after the ABC debate where 9 of the first 14 questions where "gotcha" questions designed to test Obama's ability to withstand expected Republican attacks against him in the fall.

The poll consists of three days of interviews. The timing of the lead changes and Obama's quick recovery suggest the initial loss was due to the debate and that voters took 2 days to absorb and recover from the issues raised by it. The good news for Obama is that as voters are becoming more familiar with him their loyalty to him is solidifying in spite of the partisan talking points raised during the debate.

It also puts a crimp in Hillary's campaign argument that Obama is not electable.

Harrisburg: By 2:1, Democrats Not Offended By Obama Remarks


SurveyUSA’s Pennsylvania media clients in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton will be releasing our latest Democratic primary results today, but in the meantime, here’s a look at some data we collected yesterday in the Harrisburg area, exclusively for WHP-TV, on the topic of Barack Obama’s “bitter” comments.
  • 50% of those familiar with Obama’s words say they disagree with them; 43% agree.
    • Among Democrats, 51% agree.
    • Among Independents, 57% agree.
  • 56% say they did not find the comments to be offensive; 40% say they did find them offensive.
    • 53% of conservatives say they were personally offended by the remarks; 52% of Republicans say they were not offended.
    • By nearly 2:1, Democrats say they did not find the remarks offensive.
  • Potential fallout: 44% say the remarks will have no long-term impact on the Obama campaign; 42% say they will, in fact, have a negative impact.

Full results, crosstabs, and analysis are here.

Pittsburgh Tribune Review Endorses Clinton


"The Pittsburgh Tribune Review endorsed the presidential hopeful, saying she is a "smart choice" and brushing off the "rock star" appeal of Sen. Barack Obama -- pointing out his lack of experience. The endorsement is an especially big surprise since the paper is owned by billionaire Richard Scaife, a longtime foe of the Clintons. Scaife even personally funded many investigations that led to Bill Clinton's impeachment."
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tonnyb

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