Hillary went full bore trying to turn Obama's mangling of the bitter comments into a winning strategy. Of course, the media decided that it was in their best interest to follow her lead. So we've had a week of Hillary and the pundits telling us how offended small town Pennsylvanians would be to Obama's supposedly condescendings bitter statement. The following are a couple of observations and comments from different media sources. The first is from Zogby; it puts into perpective Obama's statements, Hillary's reaction and a little on ZOgby's miss in Ohio.

Interview with Zogby - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review - By Bill Steigerwald

Q: What fooled you about Ohio's primary? Your last poll had that as a tie as well, yet Clinton ended up winning by 10 percentage points.

A: There were some pollsters who did it better than I did. But I was a little too late catching the break. It was the last break of white voters, voting in substantial numbers, and voting against Obama if not for Hillary, for reasons of trade -- remember there were some questions about Obama's commitment to the opposition to trade -- and some of it clearly was race, and that's what the exit polls said.
...
Q: What has been happening to cut down Clinton's double-digit lead?

A: Generally speaking, it's negative campaigning. That's the broad stroke. There's plenty of evidence throughout the year that negative campaigning just isn't working anymore -- that in fact it backfires. That's broadly. Specifically, it doesn't work for Sen. Clinton. So it may be one thing to do damage to the opponent, or to have the opponent inflict wounds upon himself, but that doesn't make her more likable.

Q: Did Obama's comments about the "bitter voters" of the small towns of Pennsylvania end up hurting him significantly?

A: It's counterintuitive. It certainly hurt him among the punditry and hurt him deeply among Republicans. That's for sure. But in our poll we asked the following statement: "Recently in a speech before business leaders in California, Barack Obama said that many residents of small-town Pennsylvania are bitter about their economic circumstances and because of that they 'cling to guns and religion.' Critics of Obama say he is an elitist and does not understand working people and what they go through, while supporters say he is the only candidate telling the truth about how hard hit the middle class is because of economic policies of those in Washington, D.C." Then we asked, "Who are you more likely to agree with? The critics of Obama? Or supporters who say Obama is telling the truth and people are bitter?" Twenty-nine percent said they agree with critics of Obama and 60 percent said they agreed with supporters of Obama.

Q: So obviously, "bitter voters" didn't hurt him.

A: It did not hurt him. ... Catholics agreed with supporters of Obama, 56-32; whites, 55-33; it's across the board. We went over the question enough times. I think we worded the question fairly. I don't see anything. It doesn't seem to have hurt yet, anyway.

From a poll taken of North Carolina by Elon University.

But Elon polling director Hunter Bacot said that Obama's remarks factored very little into the voting and that more voters focused on his response to the remarks of his pastor.

"I don't think the bitter remark is resonating here at all," Bacot said.

The Washington Post.

Yes, the Jeanmenne brothers concede, they are somewhat "bitter," the word that Sen. Barack Obama used at a San Francisco fundraiser to describe small-town Pennsylvania, in a riff that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton seized on to cast him as elitist. The steel mill where Michael worked as a stenciler is slated to shut down this year; the GM parts manufacturer where Bob worked is also on its last legs. All eight of their children have left town. "There's an awful lot of resentment around here," said Bob Jeanmenne, 84.

And no, they do not agree with the rest of Obama's analysis: that voters in distressed towns "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment as a way to explain their frustration."

Yet they find it hard to get worked up about the comments -- as do other Pennsylvanians, judging by polls that so far show little damage from an episode Clinton has worked hard to exploit. Years of watching the decline of the town they have lived in since their family arrived from France in the 1920s has, they suggested, provided perspective that keeps them from getting caught up in 24-hour cable and Internet outrage.
...
"He overstepped his statement, and didn't realize what he was saying. It was a Freudian slip -- he said what's in his mind," said Bob Jeanmenne. "But I don't think it will make much difference."

Finally, Bill Maher had Jeremy Scahill, the author who exposed Blackwater, present a video segment showing interviews with white rural Pennsylvanians in the Allentown and Norristown areas. Most of the people he interviewed said they were voting for Obama. One mentioned that he knew Obama apologized, but he didn't think he had to because what he said was true. Another man said that if you read the whole text and read between the lines, what Obama said is true.

PHILADELPHIA — Barack Obama was greeted by the largest crowd of his campaign Friday night in Philadelphia. Some 35,000 people jammed into Independence Park to see the Democratic presidential candidate, four days before this state's crucial April 22 primary.

Frank Friel, director of security at the Independence Visitor Center, made the official estimate.

The crowd exceed the 30,000 who greeted Obama and Oprah Winfrey in December in Columbia, S.C.

Obama told the crowd the United States is at a crucial moment in its history, much like what the founding fathers faced in Philadelphia.

"It was over 200 years ago that a group of patriots gathered in this city to do something that no one in the world believed they could do," Obama said. "After years of a government that didn't listen to them, or speak for them, or represent their hopes and their dreams, a few humble colonists came to Philadelphia to declare their independence from the tyranny of the British throne."

The Illinois senator called Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton a "tenacious" opponent but said it was time to move beyond the politics of the 1990s.

"Her message comes down to this: We can't really change the say-anything, do-anything, special interest-driven game in Washington, so we might as well choose a candidate who really knows how to play it," Obama said.

There is is a three day Gallup poll from Tuesday to Thursday showing a 7 point drop in Obama's lead over the past 4 days. I think the big effect is from the debate. From Tueday to Friday, his lead dropped from 11, 8, 7 and finally 3. You could say that between Wednesday and Thursday, he lost only one point in the lead. That was probably a flattening out of the effect of the bitter controversy. It is likely that he would regained his larger lead within days without the debate.
The polling from Thursday must have been really bad, and ABC, who has a larger audience can replay all those clips from the debate until the American public gets tired of it. While this is may be good news for the coming general election it may be not so good for tuesday's primary. A number of news items are being vetted. It would have been better for Obama if these things came out several weeks ago. It would have given voters time for the gotcha's effects to fade. The American public got feed a gluttonous diet of bitters, can obama win, Wright, Wright/patriotism, flag pins/patriotism, Ayers, Ayers/patriotism with a side order of Chelsea Clinton cheering her mom. Most polls are showing the race tightening in Pennsylvania. The effect on the national poll may end up running contrary to the Pennsylvanian polls if Clinton suffers a backlash from all the negative campaigning and Pennsylvanian dissatisfaction with the debate.

Looks like Obama has been hurt by the debate.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows a tightening of the national Democratic race, with Barack Obama now holding just a 3-percentage point advantage over Hillary Clinton, 47% to 44%. These results are based on interviewing conducted April 15-17, with Thursday night's interviewing the first conducted following the April 16 debate in Philadelphia.

I expect that the effect will be temporary. Pennsylvanians complained that the debate didn't speak to their needs. Nationally, this was the first time most voters heard of Ayers. It is likely it will take some time for them to process the information. Obama is still not well known, and each revalation of this type are likely to lead to significant bounces in the polls.

Tom Rooney was the man-on-the-street who asked Hillary about the Bosnia lie at the Philadelphia debate. But Mr. Rooney is not your average man-on-the-street.

Tom Rooney is the former executive vice president and COO of the Pittsburgh Penguins. He is the cousin of Pittsburgh Steeler owner Dan Rooney, who recently endorsed Barack Obama.

He is also the uncle of Thomas Rooney, a Republican candidate for the 16th congressional district in Florida (Mark Foley's old stomping grounds), who used to work in Attorney General Charlie Crist's office.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhCxcjon19A">Youtube Video of that portion of the debate.</a>

<a href="http://www.trseg.com/0204news.htm">Image of Tom Rooney at Rooney Sports and Entertainment Center site.</a>

Tom Rooney former executive vice president and COO of the Pittsburgh Penguins. hE is the cousin of Pittsburgh Steeler owner Dan Rooney, who recently endorsed Barack Obama. He is also the uncle of Thomas Rooney, a Republican candidate for the 16th congressional district in Florida, Mark Foley's old stomping grounds. Thomas Rooney used to work Attorney General Charlie Crist's office.
<a href="http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.trseg.com/rooney_whirl.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.trseg.com/0204news.htm&h=305&w=181&sz=14&hl=en&start=3&sig2=6cVQoVFf-H-an5ECrsqZWQ&um=1&tbnid=85o5MygxPsjdUM:&tbnh=116&tbnw=69&ei=lYwISPHnDZ-OecvW0NEN&prev=/images%3Fq%3D%2522Tom%2BRooney%2522%2Bhockey%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dcom.google:en-US:official%26sa%3DN"> Rooney Sports and Entertainment Center</a>
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhCxcjon19A">At the Debate. </a>

Why? Why were we repeatedly privy to Chelsea Clinton's reactions to the debate? Why wasn't a Obama surrogate likewise availabe for us see?

I'd like to share some observations about your April 16th commentary on Barack Obama's bitter comments. You start your commentary with

I am not bitter.

I’m not writing this just because I grew up in a house with a gun, a strong Catholic faith, an immigrant father, brothers with anti-illegal immigrant sentiments and a passion for bowling. (My bowling trophy was one of my most cherished possessions.) My family morphed from Kennedy Democrats into Reagan Republicans not because they were angry, but because they felt more comfortable with conservative values. Members of my clan sometimes were overly cloistered. But they weren’t bitter; they were bonding.

I am not sure how your lack of bitterness, the gun in your childhood home (father was a police investigator), your family conversion from Kennedy Democrats into Reagan Republicans and the rest are germane to the issue.

You were born, raised and college-educated in D.C. You have been working in journalism since 1974, first with the Washington Star and then with the New York Times covering two presidential elections, serving as a White House correspondent, and writing a column called "On Washington." In fact, You've lived your entire life in Washington D.C. I don't see how that qualifies you to credibly speak on this issue. Your commentary is just one in a slew of commentaries by individuals who are not part of the demographic Obama was speaking of, that is small town Pennsylvanians who have lost there jobs to free trade with little or no opportunity for future substantial employment. That certainly does not reflect your status. Although you came from a working class background, you are now a member of the Washington millionaire pundit elite and are ill-equipped to speak for them.

Later in your commentary you said,

Behind closed doors in San Francisco, elitism’s epicenter, Barack Obama showed his elitism, attributing the emotional, spiritual and cultural values of working-class, “lunch pail” Pennsylvanians to economic woes.

Obama did not say that the values of working-class-people are attributed to their economic woes, but that small-town-working-class-people-who-have-lost-there-jobs-to-free-trade cling to their values, and vote those values, ignoring economics considerations in their voting decision, since their economic problems have been ignored by politicians for the past 25 years. Why you have chosen to distort in this manner is beyond me, but IMO, it has certainly given new meaning to the value of you column.

Obama outraised Clinton $250,000 to $220,000 from non-urban zip codes with a population under 30,000. Likewise in non-urban zip codes with populations under 20,000, Obama outraised Clinton by $200,000 to $170,000. His advantage may in fact be stronger since the data does not include donors whose total  contributions were under $200.

This is TPM heading on the Main page.

Piling on "Small Town" Hit, Hillary Rolls Out 100 PA Mayors

This is from the Philly Inquirer

HARRISBURG, Pa. - Turnout at a "100 Mayors for Hillary" rally in Harrisburg was a little under 20 percent.


Only 19 mayors of small and medium-sized Pennsylvania cities showed up
for Tuesday's rally in the rotunda of the Pennsylvania Capitol. Other
mayors' names were listed on placards supporting Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton of New York for the Democratic presidential nomination.


Harrisburg Mayor Stephen Reed spoke for the group.


Reed criticized Clinton's rival, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, for
saying at a San Francisco fundraiser last week that some voters in
small towns in Pennsylvania cling to guns or religion because of their
frustration over their economic circumstances.


Reed called Obama's comments "divisive and condescending" and said small-town values are the bedrock of American values.

Someone tell me what is going on with TPM. I have been following TPM for five years now. I beginning to have my doubts.

Johnson cites race in Obama surge

http://www.charlotte.com/171/story/581394.html

Wading back into the Democratic presidential race, billionaire businessman Bob Johnson said Monday that Sen. Barack Obama would not be his party's leading candidate if he were white.

Johnson's comments to the Observer echoed those of former vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro. She stepped down as an adviser to Sen. Hillary Clinton last month after saying Obama wouldn't be where he is if he were white.

"What I believe Geraldine Ferraro meant is that if you take a freshman senator from Illinois called `Jerry Smith' and he says I'm going to run for president, would he start off with 90 percent of the black vote?" Johnson said. "And the answer is, probably not... ."

Well, not necessarily so. If a white candidate spoke and thought like Obama he might be doing even better. I think the majority of the attraction is to Obama's candor and meassage and not his color. Would he start offf with 90% of the black vote? Probably not. But where he might lose out on the black vote, he would gain in the white vote and then some.

Hope the video is available soon and someone will put it up. Obama responds by saying "that's Osama bin Laden." THe announcer apologized. Obama was gracious and said "that ok" and that it was what he has "been going through for the last 15 months." The audience applauded him. He then takes a long pause and bite on the his lower lip. It was an emotional moment for him. After 20 seconds or so, while he is still regaining his composure, the audience spontaneously begins to applaud him again.

Twenty-one elected officials and community leaders from small towns and rural areas throughout Pennsylvania wrote the following letter concerning the recent flap over Senator Obama's "bitter" comments.

<blockquote>Dear Fellow Pennsylvanian,

We live in small towns and rural areas throughout Pennsylvania and we support Barack Obama for President.

A few days ago, Sen. Obama made some comments that his opponents are now using to make him appear as if he is something he is not.  Instead of speaking to us honestly about how they intend to solve the problems we are facing, they are playing the same old Washington games that accomplish nothing.

What Sen. Obama said is that over the last 25-30 years, working class people in places like Pennsylvania have been falling behind, and that politicians in Washington haven’t been looking out for them.  He also said that, as a result, many people have become frustrated, angry and even bitter about all the broken promises.

He was right.

The politicians who are now saying that we shouldn’t be frustrated are the ones who are out of touch.

People in the towns and communities we live in have seen their jobs shipped overseas.  We’ve seen our pensions disappear.  We’ve seen our health care costs skyrocket.  We’ve seen everything from the cost of gasoline to a gallon of milk go through the roof.

As our families have struggled to make ends meet and our communities fought to stay intact, how has Washington responded?  By giving tax breaks to the wealthy, rewarding corporations who ship jobs overseas, and turning the levers of power over to the lobbyists and special interests.

It’s easy to feel a little frustrated when you see these Washington politicians continue to ignore you.  But it’s not the only emotion we feel.  When someone comes along who is untainted by the system in Washington, who doesn’t take money from federal lobbyists or special interests and who promises that things can be different, we feel something else—hope.

That’s why we’re supporting Barack Obama.  Others have come along and promised change, but failed to deliver.  Sen. Obama is different than the rest.  He doesn’t take money from the special interests, and he speaks honestly about the issues we are facing.

In addition to supporting his plans for jobs, health care and education, we believe that he can deliver on his promises to ensure economic opportunity for family farmers, to provide support for rural economic development, to promote renewable energy in rural America, to protect the rights of hunters and other law-abiding Americans to purchase, own, transport, and use guns for the purposes of hunting and target shooting, and to preserve open land for hunting and fishing.

Unlike his opponents who have been part of the Washington establishment for decades, Barack Obama understands the struggles we are going through.  We welcomed him with open arms as he made his way through small towns and rural areas on his recent bus tour across the state.  And we will work day and night from now until the primary on his behalf not only because he has heard our frustrations, but because he speaks to our hope that Washington can actually work for people like us.

Sincerely,

Ted Alter, State College

Westmoreland County Commissioner Tom Bayla, Greensburg

Mayor John Brenner, York

Lloyd Casey, West Chester – President, Pennsylvania Forestry Association

Mayor John Fetterman, Braddock

Mayor Rick Gray, Lancaster

Scott Harrison, Warriors Mark

State Representative Bryan Lentz, Swarthmore

State Senator Sean Logan, Monroeville

Carl Majji, Claysville – Corporal, U.S. Army

Mayor Thomas McMahon, Reading

State Senator Bob Mellow – Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Leader

U.S. Representative Patrick Murphy, Doylestown – U.S. Congressman (PA-08)

Perry County Commissioner Steve Naylor, New Bloomfield

Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien, Dunmore

Fran Rodriquez, Lancaster

State Representative Josh Shapiro, Abington – Deputy Speaker, Pennsylvania House of Representatives

Major General Walter Stewart, Berks County – Former Commander, 28th Infantry Division, Pennsylvania Army National Guard

State Representative Dan Surra, St. Marys

State Representative Thomas Tangretti, Greensburg

Lackawanna County Commissioner Michael Washo, Scranton</blockquote>

Clinton was applauded once after she entered the arena. She refused to speak personally about her experience. Obama was applauded 15+ times. What kind of crowd was that? I would assume a religious crowd. Does that bode well for Obama as a democratic nominee in the general election? He really seem to connect with them on almost every issue he discussed.

After Dick Cheney challeged to a hunting contest, Hillary decided to back off from her earlier claim that she had hunting experience. She said "I fired a gun once, but I didn't like it, and I didn't recoil,"

So Obama's comments have now exposed the wound. I would direct you to Confessions of a Pennsylvania expat by workingclasszero

Perhaps it is time for another speech. I think he could pull this off.

Obama said. "You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them, and they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

As expected, Clinton, McCain, Republicans and the press are having a field day with Obama's comments. There is a large number of voters who are going to vote for Hillary no matter what. Obama's bitter comments could be seen as a further justification for supporting Hillary or as of no consequence. Another large group of voters are going to vote for Obama no matter what. Believing in Obama, they may see Obama's bitter comments as sympathetic and accurate. In either case, these voters will see their candidates in the most positive light and forgive their candidates gaffes in whatever manner necessary.

Politically, a third group of voters, the swing voters, are the ones that really matter. It is their perception of what these comments mean that will effect the Pennsylvania primary outcome. What will they take from this controversy?

First of all, part of Obama's comment was a generalization. Campaigns and candidates make generalized comments on a regular basis, like "American need better jobs." Obama specifies "some of these towns" but generalizes with "And it's not surprising then they get bitter." While non-controversial generalizations are accepted and favorable interpreted, controversial statements are subject to criticism, misunderstanding and can be distorted purposely to misrepresent a candidates position.

For instance, this evening Clinton supporter Ed Rendell, said that Obama said 1) Pennsylvanians are religious and love guns because of their bitterness and 2) the state wasn't doing well economically. Both claims are refuted by a clear reading of Obama's comments. Since Rendell is a "typical" politician, it is not surprising that he would twist Obama's comment to benefit his candidate.

A Oakdale, Pa voter commenting on the controversy said "It's a right to own a gun. You have every right in the world to own a gun," said Oakdale resident Mike Smith. "He's got no right to take that away from anybody," a sentiment shared by Obama, but somehow in this voter's mind and probably others the opposite is being attributed to him.

Obama later clarified his comments by stating that small town voters, have abandoned the idea that Washington will help them with their economic problems and choose to vote based on other issues that are important to them, like gun rights and value issues. I suspect that this clarification will generally play well in Pennsylvania.

But there is another problem. Is it true that small-town midwesterners, neglected by washington politicians have "antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations?" I'm not sure what he really means here. Is any of this true?