Quinipiac polls have Obama leading McCain by 52-40 percent in Pennsylvania, 48-42 percent in Ohio and by 47-43 percent in Florida.

You remember Rudy's "9/11" mantra repeated ad nauseum? It looks like McCain has got one of his own.

McCain has had it easy. He won one highly contested congressional primary race in 1982. That's it! Since then McCain has won 1 congressional and 4 Senate Races by margins ranging from 20 to 52%. His curent performance on the campaign trail is, in my opinion, sophmorish, and likely the result of 5 easy elections over the past 24 years.

During his first primary election the issue of carpetbagger came up as he had just moved to Arizona the year before. When confronted, McCain responded with

Listen, pal. I spent 22 years in the Navy. My father was in the Navy.
My grandfather was in the Navy. We in the military service tend to move
a lot. We have to live in all parts of the country, all parts of the
world. I wish I could have had the luxury, like you, of growing up and
living and spending my entire life in a nice place like the First
District of Arizona, but I was doing other things. As a matter of fact,
when I think about it now, the place I lived longest in my life was
Hanoi.

His defense du jour "I'm a POW ..." a replay of what has worked for him in the past, has already been used several times, in one form or another. during the past weeks in defending himself against Obama. I was surprised to see him use it so soon as it is his strongest suit. When responding to Obama's criticism of McCain's lack of support for the GI bill, McCain responded 

"And I will not accept from Senator Obama, who did not feel it was his responsibility to serve our country in uniform, any lectures on my regard for those who did ... "

pushing the "inexperienced" moniker on Obama. McCain's implication that Obama's lack of lack of service, disqualifies him from questioning his judgment on military issues, is silly, elitist, reveals a disdain for Obama's candidacy and does nothing to forward the discussion. I'm sure that some in his base agree with McCain's assertions of superiority in all things military. While McCain's service is admirable, it does not entitle him to the Presidency, which he seems to think, against Obama, it does.

According to MCain, casualties are important but when we leave isn't. Why, is one important and not the other?

It seems to me that McCain attaches importance to casualities not only for obvious humanitarian reasons, but politically because low casualities reduce media resources and coverage of Iraq; out of site, out of mind so to speak. He has injected the idea that with low or no casualities, it ok for us to stay indefinitely as long as necessary, maybe even 100 years. Missing from this calculation is the effect that this occupation, agreed upon or not by the current Iraqi government, helps to raise a new generation of anti-US jihadist, as well as an economic and stateside toll of maintaining troops indefinitely. We are effectively paying off Iraqi not to fight against us, and the large national guard deployments have left us vulnerable in the case of a national disaster. This underscores why tying the US economy to Iraq makes sense for Democrats.

Using Hillary's metric, if Florida and Michigan are counted fully the delegate needed to win increases to 2210. Here is how the number change if the FL/MI delegates were fully seated.

...... Total Delegates
..........Obama.......Clinton
Delegates 2156 ....... 1923
From FL ... 39 ......... 52
From MI ... 29 ......... 35
===========================
Total ... 2224 ....... 2010

Obama is over the top with 14 extra votes. According to politico there are 117 uncommitted delegates. If Hillary got 100% percent of the remaining SD she would end up with 2127 or is 83 delegates short of the winning total.

Over the past 4 weeks, since the NC and IN primaries, Obama got a net gain of 76 new delegates, not counting yesterday's flood, and Hillary's net gain was 16. That is almost a 5 to 1 margin in Obama's favor. Yesterday Obama gained 63 new delegates, 8 of which swithced form Clinton to Obama.

The Delegates were not buying Hillary's arguments, that she should be the nominee even while she was winning West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico in a landslide.

Someone please show me

How hard working whites won't support Obama?

How Hillary won the popular vote?

How she became the "every vote must count" advocate of FL/MI voters who before her South Carolina loss, she had agreed wouldn't count?

How not acknowledging a primary loss is a good strategy.

How using Republican talking points against your democratic colleague enhances the democratic party

How slicing up the democratic demographics to divide and exploit democrats is a good thing for the party and the country.

How losing to Barack, makes her the better general election candidate?

How Barack, who foresaw 6 years ago the Iraq fiasco, hasn't pass the commander-in-chief threshold?

How her so-called non-support of NAFTA isn't an example of Clintonian "having it both ways?"

How giving Americans a gas tax holiday worth as much as $28 and more likely $0 is a good idea?

How voting for a congressional bill entitled "Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002"
isn't voting for an authorization to go to war?

How voting for that bill without reading it entitles her to be taken seriously?

How a poorly run primary campaign speaks well of her ability to run the country?

Please someone show me how Hillary won 18 million?

McCain asks, "Why is Obama repeating over and over again that McCain is running for President Bush's third term?" His response is that "because it is very difficult to get the american public to believe something that is not true."

Straight talk? Obama's attack have put McCain on the defensive, and his addressing of Obama's "third term" comments prove that Obama has drawn blood.

In McCain's speech tonight, McCains underlying theme is Obama's special interest, position on taxes and military inexperience, "is not change we can believe in." He claims that Obama's does not have the judgement to run the country.  The MSNBC punditry is excited about McCain's speech tonight. They claim it was his best speech yet. But in the background you could hear a small crowd, and the voices of operatives in the audience who are cheering the audience on in responding to his McCain's comments. I think it comes off phoney. Sure, a large percentage of the electorate will believe McCain's political comments. But I don't it will play well with the majority of the electorate.

So far, McCain seems weak and unable to effectively respond to Obama's repeated jabs. And consider McCain's verbal gaffes that Obama has yet to take advantage of. Finally, McCains repeated use of his war experience so early in the campaign seems desperate. It is as if his war experience entitles him to something that Obama doesn't deserve.

Obama's SD today

Connecticut Democratic State Party Chairwoman Nancy DiNardo
-Virginia DNC member Jerome Wiley Segovia of Virginia.
-Michigan Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence.
-Michigan Education Association President Lu Battaglieri.
-Jerome Wiley Segovia of Fairfax County, a member of the Democratic party's Rules and Bylaws Committee
-DNC member and Florida Democratic Party Secretary Janee Murphy
-Washington state superdelegate David McDonald
-House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn will endorse tommorow

Obama needs 41.5 delegates to clinch.

Clinton received two endorsements today.
-Louisiana Democratic State Party Chair Chris Whittington
-Irene Stein, the chair of the Democratic party in Tompkins County, New York

There are 163 uncommitted delegates.

Before Rules and Bylaws Committee delegate counts.
Obama - 1984
Clinton - 1783

27 voted yes for Florida delegates being seated with 1/2 a vote each - unanimous

27 voted. 19 yes and 8 no to reinstate all Michigan delegates being seated with 1/2 a vote each. Additionally Clinton is given 69 delegates and Obama 59 delegates.

Delegate counts after Rules and Bylaws Committee.
Obama - 2050
Clinton - 1877

PR Primary - assuming Clinton win of 56%/44%
Clinton gains 31 delegates
Obama gains 24 delegates

Clinton - 1877 + 31 = 1908  
Obama 2050 + 24 = 2074

South Dakota and Montana Primary - split would give Obama 17 and Clinton 16 more delegates.

Clinton 1908 + 17 = 1925
Obama 2074 + 16 = 2090

So assuming no delegate endorsements before the last Primary, Obama would need 28 delegates to clinch. That is 17% of the remaining uncommitted delegates.

While 13 RBC members were declared Clinton supporters, she did not get all of them to support her position on FL/MI.

Improved title. We have no idea if and when Hillary will quit. Super delegates are the only ones who can bring it to an end. If inclined, here is a link to a contact list of elected SDs. Please recommend.

<a href="www.ucsdelegates.com">Uncommitted elected super delegates contact list.</a>

In case the link doesn't work. it's www.ucsdelegates.com

We have no idea if and when Hillary will quit. Super delegates are the only ones who can bring it to an end. If inclined, here is a link to a contact list of elected SDs. Please recommend.

<a href="www.ucsdelegates.com">Uncommitted elected super delegates contact list.</a>

In case the link doesn't work. it's www.ucsdelegates.com

Clinton also talked about John Kennedy's death earlier in the campaign, in reflecting on other inspirational leaders who didn't make it. At best this is a horrible gaff by an extremely calculating and skilled politician. The "harding working whites" and "Bobby Kennedy's death" is more than ample reason to end this now.

There are 64 uncommitted super delegates who are elected officials. 49 of them are congressmen or women. Perhaps those of you who are inclined, could contact uncommitted super delegates and ask them to put this baby to bed. Pressure, especially from their own constituents, might move some to endorse sooner. Please recommend even if you are not inclined to contact your representative.

Alabama - Rep. Bud Cramer, DNC Joe Turnham, DNC Nancy Worley

Alaska - American Samoa - Arizona - DNC Donald Bivens, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Add. Terry Goddard

Arkansas - DNC Lottie Shackleford

California - DNC Steven Alari, Rep. Xavier Becerra, Rep. Howard Berman, DNC Jeremy Bernard, Rep. Lois Capps, Rep. Dennis Cardoza, Rep. Jim Costa, DNC Mary Ellen Early, Rep. Anna Eshoo, DNC Edward Espinoza, DNC Alexandra Gallardo-Rooker, DNC Eric Garcetti, DNC Inola Henry, Rep. Barbara Lee, Rep. Zoe Lofgren, Rep. George Miller, Rep. Linda Sanchez, Rep. Adam Schiff, Rep. Pete Stark, DNC Crystal Strait, DNC Norma J. Torres, DNC Vernon Watkins, Rep. Henry Waxman

Colorado - Gov. Bill Ritter, Rep. John Salazar, Sen. Ken Salazar, Rep. Mark Udall, DNC Pat Waak

Connecticut - DNC Nancy DiNardo

Delaware - Sen. Joe Biden, Sen. Tom Carper, DNC John Daniello, DNC Harriet Smith-Windsor

Democrats Abroad - District of Columbia - DNC Donna Brazile, DNC Christine Warnke

Florida - DNC Jon Ausman, Rep. Allen Boyd, DNC Terrie Brady, Rep. Kathy Castor, DNC Mitchell Ceasar, DNC Diane Glasser, Rep. Ron Klein, Rep. Tim Mahoney, DNC Janee Murphy, DNC Rudolph Parker, DNC Karen Thurman, DNC Andrew Tobias

Georgia - Ldr. Jimmy Carter, Rep. Jim Marshall, DNC Richard Ray

Guam - DNC Vacancy (DNC)

Hawaii - DNC Joshua Wisch, DNC Beverly Withington

Idaho - Illinois - Rep. Rahm Emanuel, DNC Edward Smith, DNC (Stroger) Vacant

Indiana - Rep. Brad Ellsworth

Iowa - Sen. Tom Harkin

Kansas - Rep. Nancy Boyda, DNC Helen Knetzer, Rep. Dennis Moore

Kentucky - Gov. Steve Beshear, DNC Jennifer Moore, DNC Nathan Smith

Louisiana - Rep. William Jefferson, Sen. Mary Landrieu, DNC Claude "Buddy" Leach, Rep. Charlie Melancon, DNC Chris Whittington, Rep. Don Cazayoux

Maine - DNC Jennifer DeChant, Rep. Michael Michaud, DNC Sam Spencer

Maryland - Sen. Ben Cardin, Rep. Steny Hoyer, DNC Belkis Leong-Hong, DNC Heather Mizeur, Rep. John Sarbanes, DNC John Sweeney, DNC Susan Turnbull, Rep. Chris Van Hollen

Massachusetts - DNC Debra Kozikowski, Rep. Edward Markey, Rep. John Olver, DNC James Roosevelt Jr, Rep. John Tierney, Rep. Niki Tsongas

Michigan - DNC Arthenia Abbott, DNC Lu Battaglieri, DNC Mark Brewer, DNC Elizabeth Bunn, DNC Debbie Dingell, DNC Kwame Kilpatrick, Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick, DNC Joyce Lalonde, Sen. Carl Levin, DNC Jeffrey Radjewski, DNC Richard Shoemaker, Rep. Bart Stupak, DNC Michael Tardiff, DNC Richard Wiener, DNC Brenda  Lawrence

Minnesota - Rep. Collin Peterson

Mississippi - DNC Carnelia Pettis Fondren, Rep. Gene Taylor, Rep. Travis Childers

Missouri - DNC Robin Carnahan, DNC Maria Chappelle-Nadal, DNC Leila Medley, DNC John Temporiti, DNC Yolanda Wheat, Add. Jay Nixon

Montana - Sen. Max Baucus, DNC Margaret Campbell, DNC Dennis McDonald, Gov. Brian Schweitzer, Sen. John Tester

Nebraska - Nevada - DNC Yvonne Gates, DNC Sam Lieberman, Sen. Harry Reid, Add. Rusty McAllister, Add. Rusty McAllister, DNC Catherine Cortez Masto

New Hampshire - DNC Raymond Buckley, Gov. John Lynch

New Jersey - Rep. Rush Holt, Sen. Frank Lautenberg, DNC Phil Murphy

New Mexico - Rep. Tom Udall

New York - Ldr. George Mitchell, DNC Ralph Dawson, DNC Irene Stein

North Carolina - Rep. Bob Etheridge, Rep. Mike McIntyre, DNC Muriel Offerman, DNC David Parker, DNC Carol Peterson

North Dakota - DNC David Strauss

Ohio - DNC Joyce Beatty, Sen. Sherrod Brown, DNC William Burga, Rep. Marcia Kaptur, Rep. Dennis Kucinich, DNC Ronald Malone, DNC Chris Redfern, Rep. Zack Space, Rep. Charlie Wilson

Oklahoma - Rep. Dan Boren, DNC Jim Frasier, DNC Ivan Holmes, DNC Jay Parmley

Oregon - DNC Bill Bradbury, DNC Frank Dixon, DNC Wayne Kinney, DNC Gail Rasmussen, DNC Meredith Wood Smith, Sen. Ron Wyden

Pennsylvania - Rep. Jason Altmire, Rep. Bob Brady, Rep. Mike Doyle, Rep. Tim Holden

Puerto Rico - DNC Eliseo Roques-Arroyo

Rhode Island - Sen. Jack Reed

South Carolina - Rep. Jim Clyburn, DNC Gilda Cobb-Hunter, Rep. John Spratt

South Dakota - DNC Cheryl Chapman

Tennessee - Gov. Phil Bredesen, DNC Inez Crutchfield, Rep. Lincoln Davis, Rep. Bart Gordon, VP Al Gore, DNC Gray Sasser, Add. Jerry Lee

Texas - DNC Linda Chavez-Thompson, DNC David Hardt, Rep. Nick Lampson, DNC Robert Martinez, DNC Boyd Richie, DNC Betty Richie, Ldr. Bob Strauss

Utah - DNC Helen Langan, Rep. Jim Matheson

Vermont - DNC Howard Dean

Virgin Islands - DNC Marylyn Stapleton

Virginia - DNC C Richard Cranwell, DNC Alexis Herman, DNC Jim Leaman, DNC Jerome Wiley Segovia, Sen. Jim Webb

Washington - DNC Ed Cote, DNC Eileen Macoll, DNC Sharon Mast, DNC David McDonald

West Virginia - DNC G. Nick Casey Jr., DNC Alice Germond, Gov. Joe Manchin, Rep. Alan Mollohan

Wisconsin - Sen. Herb Kohl, DNC Paula Zellner

Wyoming - DNC Nancy Drummond, DNC Cynthia Nunley

Now its three. I know its just a snapshot, but in Survey USA's first three VP swing state matchups, Obama comes out
ahead of McCain. In Obama vs. McCain (no VP) polls put Obama ahead by 9 points in Ohio, 8
points in Pennsylvania  and 7 points in Virginia. But when different
VP are added Edwards provides the greatest win margins. 18 in Ohio, 17 in
Pennsylvania and 18 in Virginia. Huckabee appears to be McCain's best
running mate.

Congressman Dennis Cardoza of California
California congressman, Jim Costa.
State Senator Peter Burling of Cornish and Deborah Nelson of Hanover, NH announce their switch from Edwards to Obama this morning.

According to Obama's campaign, they need 59 more delegates to reach 2026. He is likely to get approximately 40 delegates and 6 add-on delegates the remaining primaries and from state conventions that convene between now and June 3rd. That would leave needing approximately 13 super delegates to clinch the nomination. 

In Survey USA first two VP swing state matchup surveys, Obama comes out ahead of McCain. In Obama vs. McCain (no VP) put Obama ahead by 8 points Pennsylvania  and 7 points ahead in Virginia. But when different VP are added Edwards provides the greatest win margins. 17 in Pennsylvania and 18 in Virginia. Huckabee appears to be McCain's best running mate.

I wish they would include Webb. He helps with Virginia and could help in other Appalachian swing states, like Ohio. As a former Secretary of the Navy, he would also help with the National Security debate.

Today in Florida, according to the Huffington Post <blockquote>Hillary Rodham Clinton says she is willing to take her fight to seat Florida and Michigan delegates to the convention if the two states want to go that far. In an interview with The Associated Press, Clinton was asked whether she would support the states if they continue the fight.</blockquote> She went to Florida to rally Floridians to take the fight to the convention floor. It maybe just a threat designed to maximize her yields at the May 31st, Rules Committee meeting. In any event, I don't trust her.

What will happen on May 31st? Clinton wants to seat Florida and Michigan regardless of whether they broke the party rules. She agreed that FL/MI should not count when she believed that she was going to win by Super Tuesday. After her devastating loss in North Carolina, she turned into a champion for FL/MI voters, assuring them that she would fight to the end so that every vote would count. I have heard Wolfson suggest that since Obama got zero votes in Michigan then he should not get any percentage of the Michigan uncommitted vote or delegates. Obama and Edwards took their names off the ballot when all decided that those states wouldn't count.

Only 8 members of the Rules Committee are Obama supporters. The remaining 9 are undeclared. Seating FL/MI as if nothing had occurred is fantasyland and Hillary's stated goal. I am tired of Hillary's propaganda, It is her intention to put the rules committee in the position where not including FL and MI according to her will, will damage the ability of the party to unite after the primaries end.   

Clinton wants delegates to reverse the will of the voters because she has won applachia. (her latest rationale) She wants superdelegates to dismiss the will of the voters and ignore delegate counts. By racking up these high percentage wins, she is hoping to get the rules committee to reinstate the votes and delegates in Michigan and Florida. She hopes that by getting close enough in delegates and perhaps winning the popular vote, she can get enough super delegates to hand her the nomination.

Apparently, whatever overtures she has made by toning down the inflammatory rhetoric (hard working whites) were not directed at Obama or the god of the party but meant to appease her on-the-fence supporters concerned about their own reputations, hanging with Clinton even as it looks like it is over.