Dennis Overbye, in the New York Times, says we did not conquer space 40 years ago when we landed on the Moon, we just learned how hard it is. We also learned how expensive it is.  Scientific and manned-mission efforts will continue as prestige markers for a while yet, and commercial activity will increase slowly. The main driver for space exploration will continue to be military, as has been the case for government support of astronomy since its birth as astrology. It became astronomy when precise measurement allowed navigation and surveying accuracy, which meant substantial advantages for the more accurately piloted naval force, or the efficiently deployed land forces.

Isaac Asimov, who was a leader in making speculative fiction scientific, imagined (among others) a future where robots' installed morals, his Three Laws, would invite a more basic Law, that of promoting the health and future of the human race. One particular robot, who has deduced this new Law, acts to enforce it, by starting a nuclear reaction intended to make Earth eventually uninhabitable. This forces humanity out of its sleepy satisfied state, which comprises a handful of planets colonized by wealthy explorers, and the hugely overpopulated home planet.

Read more »