Hong Kong Holding Its Breath
Not because of smoggy marine-layer haze---one of the world's largest ports is at Dead Slow, almost Full Stop.
I was first here in 1986, and was amazed at the immense fixed cranes for off-loading, which were so large that a container ship simply pulled inside one. Ships typically stacked up outside the harbor, waiting their turn. But as my airplane from Tokyo approached the airport I looked down at nearly empty highways. It was quieter than New Year's day morning, and the expected 90-min. bus ride to our hotel took 40 minutes.
A tour guide chatted on the bus PA, emphasizing the shopping opportunities, and finishing up by encouraging us to help their economy. He was perhaps not clear that we were there to earn, not spend. A forgivable mistake, when US tourists expected bargains and came prepared to buy, in all the good times leading up to now. But I saw a story in the newspaper here that listed the reduction in value of several billionaires' holdings, such as the Kwok family, down from US $ 23 billion in 2008, to only $ 10.9 billion now. Quelle dommage!
I am reminded that the entire world of trade is suspended,
not only the US. But is there a cause? Is there something all of us are doing
wrong, or rather, is there something we should do that is different? Is it just the boom-and-bust cycle?
The biggest dispute here might be spending vs. tax cuts, but the protection fight is beginning to dominate, which we saw coming. It is of a piece with the populist revolt, which follows the public ridicule of formerly worshipped Wall Street titans. Arguments swing back and forth about the damage caused by Smoot-Hawley in 1930 and on. I wonder about a deeper question, not Obama's "is perfect an enemy of good?", but "is perfect better than good in the first place?"
Most arguments in favor of free trade point to resulting efficiencies, which lead to lower purchase prices for us. Not persuasive if it inherently lowers wages here. There are some appeals to our business helping other countries, as my bus guide appealed. But why are they dependent on us?
There are several examples of the need to be imperfect, a bit inefficient, not entirely open to all inputs. There is the ship that lacks compartments, liable to sink with a small hole in it. There is the electric grid, which takes down thousands of homes when one substation melts down after a tree fall. There are animals too perfectly adapted to their niche, who become extinct as that niche vanishes. And I argue that economies should not seek the ultimate bottom-line profitability of specialization.
Don't most of us agree that cash-crop agriculture risks poverty if the weather is bad, or the export markets dry up? Single-commodity wealth is wholly dependent on everybody else wanting your product, and you can't simply keep it and feed your country with oil, copper, coffee, etc. Diversification is always said to be sound policy in agriculture, and in investing, too. But that is inherently hedging, which means less-than-perfect efficiency.
I know that trade barriers seem old-fashioned, but I'm in an old-fashioned business, where we don't outsource our performances, we can't replace ourselves with robots, and we do it better than just about anybody, anyway. And our bodies are still the same as when modern humans left Africa, so it may be wise to slow down the rush to perfect production and consumption.
Hong Kong is where I saw more Rolls-Royces in one place than anywhere, in front of the Peninsula Hotel. Only one this time, although the skyline is still astonishing, like Times Square spread along an entire waterfront. But a cruise ship coming in from the gambling oasis of Macau was almost empty, just a couple of people out on deck in the mild shirt-sleeve breeze.





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tAiEFhNHZk
February 6, 2009 4:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for this, Tom. It is good to remember that it isn't just America that Americans need to worry about.
We're ALL in this together.
February 6, 2009 8:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tom - A well written piece and as Bwakfat says good to remember that our economic problems are global problems. However, I came away from reading it wondering if you were saying trade barriers, protectionism is a good thing.
February 6, 2009 8:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I do think they are, and would be OK with other countries protecting their various important economic sectors. Most do to some extent, anyway.
I don't think it is helpful to impose suddenly---a schedule would be good for all.
February 6, 2009 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I love getting letters from abroad.
February 6, 2009 8:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Me too.
Only thing better is letters from a broad.
February 6, 2009 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.instantrimshot.com/
February 6, 2009 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I said that someone would have claimed sexism.
Double standards rule!!!
February 6, 2009 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you have to work hard at being this much of a pain in the ass or does it come naturally?
February 6, 2009 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because you are old, I think your ass pains are due to hemorrhoids. Don't blame me, please.
Apology accepted.
February 6, 2009 11:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
A View from A Broad
http://ginmar.livejournal.com/
She's a feminist, a veteran, and doesn't tolerate crap. She's an excellent writer when she puts her mind to it. Wrote some of the best stuff to come out of the Iraq War.
February 7, 2009 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a skinny feminist who really really abhors the anti-fat-people prejudice in our current culture (really pisses me off, because it's so often so "Puritan,") I too have always had a fondness for the term "broad." We could use a little more pre-1960's appreciation of women who are "broad where a broad should be broad" as being capable of being physically attractive, without keeping the damage of the more sexist baggage that went along with it.
February 7, 2009 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tom, goes along with your report, blurb with photo from the front page of today's NYT Business section:
February 6, 2009 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, judging from your comments above on trade barriers, I thought you might find Floyd Norris' column today of interest.
And thanks so much for taking the time to share your impressions during your tour.
February 6, 2009 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link. Even Rogoff admits that, absent global regulation (dream on) countries should protect themselves, even though he calls it anarchy in a different quote.
I don't call trade controls a cure; they are prevention for the next time.
February 6, 2009 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
A story like this, Tom, really puts a face on global recession. Thanks for this.
February 6, 2009 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Most arguments in favor of free trade point to resulting efficiencies, which lead to lower purchase prices for us. Not persuasive if it inherently lowers wages here."
If wages go down less, net, than prices go down, that's okay.
But it's pretty clear that free trade mostly helps the export/import businesses (discounting smuggling which it hurts) and the capitalists who invest across borders and do so wisely (know the local risks and customs). It also can help the low wage labor pool, but that's problematic and unless the pool is powerful, they usually get exploited in the pejorative sense.
February 7, 2009 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nicely put.
Best if wages don't go down at all, and even if they go down less than goods prices, one's choices narrow as to how to spend the wages. At higher prices the higher wages are not necessarily spent on those goods. If all numbers go down in proportion it means nothing of course until you compare to elsewhere, exactly the problem now.
As I said elsewhere, it is not either/or, but the proportion. Unlike those who argue that all taxes are bad, I don't claim all are good. But the trend of recent decades does not persuade me it needs to continue.
February 7, 2009 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, my comment was terribly brief.
Wages go to savings, immediate needs, and discretionary spending. Some are necessarily domestic, such as housing. Very few domestic wage earners don't live here! So imports driving down prices applies to only some areas. And some things like oil derivatives are now pretty much not related to external labor, so they are also not in the simplistic equation.
It's more of a slope thing than an absolute relation. The problem is that as domestic wages are driven down by offshoring, not all goods go down with that even if some imports are dirt cheap. And that's what we've had, I think.
Housing prices are dropping, commodities are fluctuating but in the short term down. There is growing downward pressure on wages, domestically (recession unemployment is up and likely to go higher), in addition to the offshoring effects. Deflationary pressures are about to drive many prices further down as demand continues to decline, both for immediate needs and discretionary spending. I wonder how well stocks which are ordinarily considered recession-proof or at least resistant, will do this time.
February 7, 2009 2:42 AM | Reply | Permalink