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Two Routes to a New Economy


Power and storage are the ideas that matter. They help each other, and need each other. They both need lots of labor, as well as lots of innovation, customized for local conditions, as well as benefiting from large-volume economies. And they make everything else, from health care to national security, easier to achieve.

I was doing some arithmetic and found that I consumed, in my high-demand months, about 20 Kwhr/day. If I have 4000 peak watts of solar and wind, and five hours of sun or equivalent wind, I'm there. That would cost about $20,000 for parts, plus a couple thousand more for batteries, not including labor, since I could in principle do my own work.

If we have a trillion bucks with which to stimulate our economy, that would provide $20,000 for every single-family home in the country. And the demand for solar panels would call for ramping up production hugely, which would invite lots of competitors into the market, so that the next generation of photovoltaics would be much less expensive.

The next generation of solar would cover the garages of those homes, and the parking lots of malls, or the Pentagon, and would sell power to cars that parked there. If I include my usual commute, in evenings for shows (daytime is light rail), I would need an additional 8 Kwhr or so per round trip in a Tesla running at about half its max efficiency. (Ads claim 4 Kwhr would yield the 20 miles I need.)

Covering a parking lot costs, but it also saves some maintenance costs for the pavement, and snow-clearing in winter. If a parking space of roughly fifteen by eight feet or 120 square feet is generating power you would get about 2500 watts peak output, and a few hours would yield enough for most personal-commute round trips.

I like thinking about the 3 square kilometers represented by the Pentagon and its parking. That is approximately 600 megawatts of peak output with existing solar. True that small-order prices imply it would cost 3 trillion dollars at $5/watt installed (I think, hoping I kept my zeros under control), but that is a pointless exercise, since a large installation would not likely use photovoltaics, but thermal-solar, and even if photovoltaic was used the huge dedicated order is going to be priced in a different way.

Now we come to the other half of the issue--storage. Essentially the entire biological world stores power, not depending on constant input. We have become good at managing the charge level in our phone or laptop batteries, just like we pay attention to the fuel level in our cars. It would be no problem to pay attention to the charge level in our home system, and defer doing the laundry until the sun rose tomorrow and brought our reserve back up.

But the ubiquitous lead-acid car battery is not suited to this kind of use. It is best at very slight discharge and recharge, maintaining the large capacity only for emergency use, when the engine is balky, or the generator failing. What is needed for houses is a system that doesn't mind full discharge. Fortunately, it need not be either compact or lightweight, only usefully priced. The best candidate is called the flow battery, a cousin to the fuel cell. One system is in use to power an entire town on King Island, Tasmania. It uses two chemicals that meet at a membrane, release electricity, and get stored as discharged. When charging the reaction runs backward. The chemicals do not get consumed or contaminated, and have indefinite lifetime. The system scales up or down easily, either in capacity, via tank size, or in output, via membrane size. Running a house for a week could be done with four 55-gallon drums, according to an engineer friend.

The task for cars is more demanding, and the lithium batteries in our cell phones are the leading design now. More practice in manufacture and use will improve reliability and safety. But advances are likely with the new market screaming for designs that offer lightweight, fast charging, and high capacity. Ultra-capacitors will probably be part of the newer systems, to allow fast charge at a filling station. But it may be that fast fill becomes less of a problem, if many places we park offer power, and fewer people travel long distances by car now. If we can get to a battery that allows driving for 8 hrs that will be enough for most, since we will want a motel by then. We can recharge from the motel's stored power overnight.

All the above would require labor as well as design and manufacture. While there are existing products from foreign companies like the large wind turbines from Denmark, what I am talking about is either domestic by nature, or better produced here, and much of it will be partially custom. Home installations, either power or battery, will be labor-intensive, and will call forth many small businesses or new hires at existing businesses. Manufacture of those systems will be domestic, in the way that home furnaces and central air conditioning are largely domestic manufacture.

And is there any question about the activity yielding actual value? Instead of jobs selling unhealthy hamburgers or imported products from China, these jobs would leave the purchaser better off, a producer instead of consumer of power. It would not be merely a temporary employment uptick, since all home systems need maintenance, and replacement or upgrading. But we would stop being the world's consumer, and become self-reliant producers, always seeking out efficiency improvements to get the most out of our systems.

42 Comments

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Great ideas Tom. Only negatives I'm envisioning are that we'll need a lot of copper just to transmit from panels/turbine to batteries to outlet. Hence environmental costs, particularly localized water resources in vicinity of mines. Also battery disposal issues, again environmental. Overall these environmental concerns are manageable, and would be more than offset by reduced carbon load to the atmosphere.

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everyone could turn in thier pennies...

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Bwak, I do not know why this comment is so funny.

I mean, what else can you do with pennies?

Fifty years ago I think there were penny drives although, you are probably too young, but it was dimes. I think it was for MS or MD but it is too long ago.

At any rate you got me laughing. There is bad copper shortage and every ten years someone starts asking for the end of the penny. Maybe every 5.

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Pennies are no longer made out of copper, but zinc. Since 1982, a penny contains only 2.5% copper.

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We'll just have to turn in all of them, then.

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I'm impressed by the ideas (and I'm an enthusiast of anything that wouldn't vitiate the necessity of a wholesale upgrade to the grid system), but I think the problems of maintenance and repair are rather serious. A lot of homeowners won't keep up the systems, and a trillion dollars is a lot of money to waste.

I'm more optimistic about subdivision or town-sized systems, portable nuclear, and so on. Solar is okay in certain climates, but in, say, Seattle it's a lot of expense for very little gain.

I bet it wouldn't be a bad idea for Pheonix, though.

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Town-sized, (or neighborhood sized), systems make sense. "a trillion dollars is a lot of money to waste". Just as apoint of reference here the US imports about $630 Billion in oil per year, (at $115/bbl). Add in the environmental costs of the carbon load, and a $ Trillion doesn't look so huge.

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Thanks Tom. I find it's worthwhile following the articles coming out of the Detroit Auto Show (e.g. at the NYT), as they provide a lot of info on the new batteries (as does Green Car Congress.)

One useful thing is that lithium-ion batteries can be used for household/cottage storage of solar power AFTER their useful vehicle life. The key is that once these batteries' performance falls below 80%-90%, they are retired from cars - BUT, they still have that remaining capacity available for other uses. With plug-in & EV batteries ranging from 10-40 kwh, having 80%-90% available is of real value.

Second, lithium-ion may well out-compete Redox Flow. A lot depends on whether lithium battery-building capacity outruns PHEV & EV vehicle building, or whether tight demand keeps prices high. California has, for example, just installed a 2 MW storage system from A123 here.

A 3rd thing worth looking at is how much of your home's electrical demand is from heating & air con. (Obviously, up here, where it's presently -36 F, that's a fair bit!) There are a range of heat pumps, including low-cost air/air units, which can give you 3-4 units of heat from the air/water/earth for every unit of electricity put in. And the Japanese have some stunning little air/air units to provide hot water - another big end use.

The aim is to minimize the electrical load, to the point where smaller and CHEAPER solar PV can handle the load. What we hope to see is a synergy with EV & PHEV cars, heat pumps, more efficiency (e.g. lighting, lower standby power), AND then solar on-site (or wind transmitted in.) The pieces then work together in interesting ways.

And when you look at the local labor and ongoing revenue streams, you reach your post's punchline --- a mix of local employment, in installations, laying lines & loops, retrofitting, rural wind, manufacturing, etc.

Cheers, and thanks Tom.

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Incremental change is essential. I like batteries first for hoses, since one starts immediately saving money through hourly rates, buying at night and using during day. Once a homeowner is noticing usage and monitoring level, it's an easier step to buying a couple of little 400W turbines, at $600 ea. Etc.

The southwest has plenty of sun, but little water. Here in the "temperate" Midwest we have copious groundwater for use as heat source/heat sink via heat pump/air conditioner. Heating costs drop by roughly 50%. But this is usually considered as a big job, with trenches dug and pipe laid.

As a renter, I'd like a window unit that used water, from a hose and pump bringing up live groundwater, not a heat exchanger. A water drill is cheap and sufficient for Chicago area, going down ten or twenty feet. A one-inch pipe would be plenty for a well, and if water is simply returned to ground there is no risk to water table. Drawing from one area and returning a hundred feet away allows some banking of heat/cold from one season to the opposite.

Right now zoning would prohibit that use, though.

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I enjoy these kinds of posts. I know so little about the actual engineering necessary to produce a real change in energy use for this country.

I do know, that even in locations where I reside (the northern tundra) the inside of a car gets so goddamn hot you cannot put your hands on the steering wheel, in the summer of course.

And if change occurs we will have other issues, like what the hell do we do with the old batteries.

It is fun to at least attempt to learn something new.

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I enjoy learning from these kinds of posts too, dd. I have spent so many years at the individual level looking at wind and solar power and how to utilize it just in my own home for my own benefit because until recently, there wasn't too serious of an effort for widespread alternative energy. Just pockets of R&D here and there. Some guy working over there on batteries. Another guy somewhere else working on solar.

I'm beginning to see a coalescence now, a gathering of the smartness, and it is very exciting.

I've got the perfect spot picked out for my personal wind turbine.

One that I can actually afford.

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Keep giving me hope Flower. Coalescence is good news. The media will pick up on the guy in his garage that runs his car on garbage and drops the entire discussion.

But Nova, Discovery and History Channels do delve into the real world from time to time.

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There was a huge effort in these issues in the 1970s under Jimmy Carter. It was dismantled because the country decided that Ronald Reagan was right about malaise.

The most disturbing room I was ever in was filled with old-timers from this era -- top researchers all -- telling everyone that people were trying to reinvent the wheel, and that the old-timers knew where it would lead. (Many of the techniques failed.)

What's the bottom line? Wasted resources, wasted time... all because knowledge was lost. Of course, the young ones in the room were certain that they would know better.

I've seen two of these "know better" efforts shut down because of lack of results -- just like predicted.

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Agree that most tech is known well enough that improvement is not expected to be large. But the inertia caused by the existing collection of inefficient AC appliances, the dominance of liquid-fuel distribution for transport, and the lack of choice in battery design means more offsetting incentives are needed.

Maybe you should be specific about the failed "know better" projects. I don't predict a single-source fossil-fuel replacement, e.g. fusion. I predict that if we are aggressive about skewing the market away from fossil fuels we can get there with less upset. Or we can watch things go to shit slowly.

Let the wealthy lead the way, give them tax breaks, they'll be helping everyone else by stimulating the market. I can't spend anything, myself, and most of the country is in my boat. Unless maybe the economic stimulus consists of me buying portable power storage or small turbines or a hybrid car from Ford, with assistance bucks from Uncle Sam.

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A few were photovoltaic projects, several were coal-style projects. Indeed, none of the strategies were pie-in-the-sky (e.g. fusion).

It was unnerving to see how the old timers shook their collective heads about things like clean-coal, sequestering, and the rest of it. Some of the issues had to do with the economics of it (e.g. too expensive for what it is, and therefore never will be practical). No matter what tact the young turks took, the old timers were ready with an answer. It was sobering. One thing is for certain, the old timers were well-versed in more than just the technology, but also the roll-out, the scaling up, and all the rest of it. And they could work the numbers out like fiends.

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You slipped some zeros: 600 MW at $5/W is $3 billion, not $3 trillion. (Easy to see: 600 x 5 = 3000, so 3000 M$ = 3 G$ = $3 trillion.)

Solar PV is the second most expensive form of commercially available power, though (right behind nuclear). (Note: although nuke power is slightly more expensive per watt, it has the advantage of running 24/7, which reduces the per-kWh cost substantially.)

I'd like to see concentrated-solar-power-Brayton-systems become commercial (see HelioFocus, an Israeli startup company). You can combine these with natural gas combustion to get 24/7 operation.

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All the better. I did think a large setup would not be PV. We had a poster here that was installing millions worth of solar-thermal. I like the HelioFocus designs, they look scalable.

Solar PV is expensive but need not remain so. Some places need compact size, so efficiency matters more than cost, but some apps will be not restricted that way, so low-efficiency but cheap will be preferred.

Some nuclear designs appeal, like fast-neutron, but all have some degree of waste issue, from merely nasty to scary over thousands of years. And none has a substantially longer design life than PV. PV material is recyclable, and the raw material is sand, if silicon-based. Polymer and protein PV is being explored.

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Gah, I typed "trillion" twice in the parentheses. Anyway, going from SI prefixes to (American) English, mega = million, giga = billion, tera = trillion. (And so on, for peta, exa, zetta, and yotta. Hopefully we won't have to worry about petadollar prices for a while yet. :-) )

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Wonderful post, Tom! There was a great article in the NY Times just recently about how houses can be built so that literally you don't need to heat them. If you use a small space (instead of big mansions... god, I feel for those poor saps who invested in a big mansion... and now have to pay for and heat it!)... so, small space, everything sealed, and air circulation coming from outdoors to keep things fresh with a heat exchanger from outdoors for very cold climates. Apparently only your body heat and the heat of a few appliances is enough!

But it's so helpful to see how easily we could become energy independent.

I was going to mention geothermal, but you did that in a comment.

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We go through this every so often. The whole problem with radon, for example, as that in the 1970's when people started to really insulate their homes for energy purposes, you didn't have the structure "breathe". There's no free lunch.

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CT. Just as a suggestion, that line, "There's no free lunch," may be an adequate way to describe "perpetual motion" machines and similar lunacies, but I'm sure you accept that there are better and worse cost/benefit ratios, efficiencies and so on amongst various technologies and systems.

For instance, on another blog, you support the expansion of rail to replace air travel/freight, local industry over big boxes, etc. I too support these projects, and neither of us would accept a generalized response from some bureaucrat in a meeting who simply told us "there's no free lunch."

Besides, humans can sometimes learn, and in the case you mentioned of too-tight homes, there has been a dramatic shift, industry-wide, toward recognizing the issue, and using heat/air exchangers and other methods to avoid the problem.

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Not "free", to be sure, but a good heat exchanger works wonders, in terms of fresh-air exchange.

(Nature has a good heat exchanger built into the nose: the "rete mirabile". It's basically a matter of doing counterflow and squeezing a lot of surface area into a relatively small volume. You must trade off the exchange flow rate with the thermal efficiency, especially if you go for passive rather than active airflow, i.e., if you want to avoid putting a fan in the system.)

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Is it possible to use your idea about overhead soloar panels for parking lots in urban areas very quickly? Wouldn't this reduce the "heat sink" problem in urban areas and at the same time generate solar energy?

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I have wondered if it might be beneficial for oceans, to be partially shadowed by some kind of solar collectors. Lower temps aid gas absorption, both CO2 and oxygen. And seawater can be used as a an electrolyte, for a low-efficiency flow battery, or as a source of hydrogen for power storage, whether gaseous or as peroxide. If peroxide, it could be shipped via low-pressure pipeline to shore, and it would have net zero effect if it leaked, with instant dilution.

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Not that what you're proposing is going to have a great impact on ocean temperature, but a slight problem with increasing the ocean's absorption of CO2: Ocean acidification. We're concerned with removing/reducing carbon in the atmosphere, but estimates of the lag or turnaround time of doing so in the ocean will be much longer than with our atmosphere.

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Is it possible to use your idea about overhead soloar panels for parking lots in urban areas very quickly? Wouldn't this reduce the "heat sink" problem in urban areas and at the same time generate solar energy?
It won't help the heat island effect, at least not the way you're thinking. If your solar panels were 100% efficient (which is not even possible in theory, I just use the number for thought-experiment purposes here), you would get zero solar heating of the panels, and of course likewise for the shaded areas underneath. Sounds like it would eliminate the heat island, right? But there's no getting around the thermodynamics: when that electricity is used—presumably somewhere nearby, or at least in the same city—all of the work performed by the electricity eventually turns into the low-grade form of the energy, i.e., heat.

Thus, even with a 100% efficient solar PV panel, all you have done is move the solar heating from the parking lot to some other (presumably nearby) location. Of course, it's possible the heat is desired there ... but more likely, it's been used to run air-conditioning to shift indoor heat outdoors. :-)

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Just as an odd-on fact, the urban "heat island" effect also penetrates downward, heating the ground, and groundwater, beneath our cities. the university here found that - in a smallish city of 700,000, with an industrial history of just 100 years - found an ENORMOUS pool of heated water beneath the city, often 5 or even 7 degrees C above background levels.

Which made our heat-pumping eyes gleam, when we worked out that the value of that "waste" heat was over $1 billion (if replacing natural gas.) It also made the Conservation & Water Stewardship people happy, as we would be slowly lowering the below-ground water temperatures back towards their natural levels.

For us though, we just realized that we possess - with no deliberate or intelligent action on our part - an enormous hot water storage tank, which our ancestors had happily filled for us. ;-)

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Tom,

Your article is completely predicated on the assumption that energy will roughly be as cheap in the future as it is today.

It won't be.

Not figured into your scenario, for example, is the cost of manufacturing the batteries and the disposal of them (environmentally and otherwise).

You talk of driving less as if less cheap energy simply means more efficient trips to the grocery store. In fact, you can expect to see the contraction of the exurbs as people can't afford to drive to work. (Let's not get into telecommuting -- that's like the pipedream of a paperless office.)

The fact is that there will be a radical alteration of our current lifestyle and living arrangements. As people move closer to places of work, expect to see the densities rise -- and you can't build up to the sky without cheap energy to pump water, run elevators, etc. Expect huge population movements (some areas will have more energy than others - sun, geothermal, hydroelectric - on the basis of geography and location) with attendant fights over that energy available.

People have yet to make the profound connection that we are in a dangerous overshoot situation and there is no tweaking of the technology to maintain what we currently recognize as a normal lifestyle.

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CT. I think Tom's scenario would actually be supported & accelerated by your main point - that energy prices will likely rise over the medium/long term (which I also believe.)

On some of the particulars, however, I believe you may not be correct. Tom noted battery costs likely in the "couple of thousand $" range, which is actually quite close to the estimates I have seen for used battery sets from vehicles. Also, lots of batteries are already recycled, with the cost of doing so included in their price, and I just saw an article where the new batteries for the Tesla vehicle had been successfully recycled.

I agree strongly with you on the likely decline of "Exurbia," and believe this could be one of the central spots for economic, social and familial distress in the coming years. It is not, however, clear that ALL of this movement will be toward city centers (some will move to mid-sized cities/towns) nor that many underpopulated city centers can't handle the influx.

As for the paperless office, far from being a pipe-dream, the paper industry globally is staggering as it becomes a reality. It turned out that the major delay in shifting from paper to electronics was a generational one, with old coots often printing everything out. It's only in the last 3 years that I've successfully shifted. The Economist recently had a story on this that you might be interested in.

Overshoot? Perhaps. My guess is as yours, that we have already overshot, and that we are increasingly going to have our demands on nature rejected. And while "tweaking" certainly won't save us, the question is more one of the speed at which we can make a transition (a 2% rate of change producing dramatically different doubling/halving times than 7%, as your exponential hero noted!); whether we can do this without social upheaval; the particular choices of lifestyle, system and consumption pattern; etc.

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International Paper stock has gone down the toilet. Must be as you say, quinn. Paper so passe.

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Almost all your posts in the last week have been predicated on the idea that in the future energy will be more expensive or that energy is viewed through the lens of currency, for-profit, rather than direct production.

It probably will not be.

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That is a bold claim and one that I have not seen espoused much. In fact, I have not seen it espoused at all. You really need to elaborate on it!

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Cost of manufacture for batteries is not trivial, but a lot of it goes to the labor force, so it comes back into the system. We are talking about lots of new battery application, not disposing of existing batteries, and if RedOx Flow, they don't even wear out.

On venting houses, there are heat exchanger systems that capture almost all (but not all, of course) of the needed internal heat.

Agree we are on the verge of overshoot, if not well past it. I expect fights over sun rights and wind channels.

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As a rough rule of thumb, it's been noted that the higher the energy density (per volume) of battery, the more toxic the material. Li-Ions are definitely not to be incinerated, for example.

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Just FYI, the newer lithium-ion batteries have moved away from the more hazardous materials, and toward phosphate etc. Tesla has up a page detailing their recycling trial worth checking out here.

It notes that their batteries do not contain any Lead, Mercury, Cadmium, Hexavalent chromium, Polybrominated biphenyls (PBB), or Polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE)...

As for the lithium, "soda ash is added to resulting process solution & precipitates out as lithium carbonate; the liquid is bled off after lithium salt recovery."

All in all, even their rough-and-ready recycling/reuse process recaptured 70% of the materials, with most of the remainder being "fluff" - largely plastic.

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What do you think of the vanadium redox battery concept? I understand some utility companies are testing them for energy flow balancing purposes.

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Google King Island, Tasmania. 750 Kwh system in use.

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An additional 2 cents...We moved to the Sacramento area to be close to our kids. One of our concerns was the cost of heating. We lived here 25+ years ago and remembered the heating bills being VERY high. We bought a new, energy efficient house and were thrilled w/ how little it cost to cool this past summer, and it's costing very little to heat this winter as well. So, progress is being made.

As to paperless offices...the attorney who prepared our trust has a paperless office. It was amazing. EVERYTHING is on computer. We got no paper from them, and everything in their office is on the computer...no paper files.

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A friend in southern Cal has heating cooling combined of about $800/yr. Single-story high ceiling. Their neighbor with two-story spends that much in a couple of months.

I had a gas bill of $150 last month, in my drafty rental 2-bdr, keeping thermostat at 63. A friend with rehabbed big three-story and plenty of insulation spent $100 total for the entire house.

The less you use the closer you are to independent. Once you have batteries you don't have to worry about sweating when everyone else loses power in a rolling blackout, or freezing. Your computer stays running, ditto fridge, cordless phone. All the advantages of civilization evaporate when the power goes out.

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That's an interesting notion, Tom. Is it possible to go "energy independent" while your neighbor has not?

I don't think it's possible. Our society is tightly woven and so we are all trapped in the Matrix. A simple example: a person may not have had high-tech stocks or may not have owned a home that foreclosed, but the cratering economy still was felt.

Therefore, individuals who go off the grid in a relatively dense area probably are not going to be able to experience the same sense of peace of mind unless their entire community goes off the grid as well. If you are remote, you can make more of a go of it... but even then foodstuffs and other energy-dependent things will probably be felt by you. Spatial wavelengths associated with wealth, especially in places like the suburbs, need to vary slowly to keep social order I should think.

It's little wonder that gun manufactures and locksmiths are presently having a field day in this economy.

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I don't see batteries for houses. Houses are already connected to the grid. Let the grid "store" the energy (pump water uphill, for instance). That way no capital costs for batteries, only inexpensive electronic grid interface circuits which will get a lot cheaper when being made at 100M qty. No battery maintenance or hazard costs. Transmission losses can be compared to battery losses for detailed evaluations.

$1T at once is silly. But $100B/yr could be quite sensible (and is far less than we spend on oil products now). And the goal shouldn't be to more houses off-grid, but to supplement centralized power plants.

I also like the idea of localized power plants. I don't see getting entirely away from petro products for electricity in 10 years, but putting a good dent in the oil budget is worthwhile.

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A trillion at once is impossible, actually, in that there are not suppliers and workers to deliver the goods.

As to batteries for houses, the plug-in hybrid is exactly that, which grid engineers want. The grid can't store, it can only shed excess. We can't dump all our spare power into a few reservoirs in the west. Most transmission is still via expensive transformer-coupled high-voltage lines. The solid-state switching is mainly at single house level.

Sending excess power down the line only to bring it back means substantial loss of energy in line resistance and magnetic eddy currents. This is only one problem with centralized power. Another is the big-business model, and another is the cozy relationship that typically ensues between state regulators and the utility.

If all are dependent on the grid then when it goes down so does civilization, locally. This is why engineers like batteries to buffer the grid. A live grid with no storage is brittle, and has to act super-fast when a portion fails, to prevent cascading failures, as we see regularly. Millions of batteries would be an electrical wetlands, absorbing the transients, and counteracting shutdowns with supplied power. Right now, one tree takes out a line and a whole neighborhood goes down.

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