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Week of February 17, 2008 - February 23, 2008

Obamaniacs and Clintonistas: Putting Passion in Perspective


I know the candidate preferences of several people, and none exhibits the rudeness and paranoia I see here. Clinton partisans here sound dire Cassandra warnings that Obama has his supporters in thrall. Obama voters mutter darkly about Bill and connections, and raise the specter of the blue dress. Clinton voters moan about misogyny, gender bias, glass ceilings. Obama supporters shout "J’accuse!" at the slightest whiff of race-mention, much less actual racism.

This is explained if we think about the blogs as attracting the active or passionate. Add to the general intensity of this self-selected sample the actually different character of the two campaigns---Hillary’s is more the seasoned pros (if there really is such a thing) and Obama’s the more grass-roots style. So we will see those styles exaggerated in the blogosphere and media in general.

The second happens because it’s more of a story. There isn’t much interest in telling how most Obama volunteers are normal concerned citizens that enjoy being involved. These people help out in every election, and we often forget about them, but they dominate the population of volunteers and hired campaign workers. The exceptions are the starry-eyed young, the folks who talk like revolutionaries or evangelicals.

The first, extremes on the blogs, is obvious, because we see it on every topic. The setting allows and invites hyperbole, over-the-top pontificating, sneers, insults, etc. Without consequence some people take advantage of the freedom to escape social rules. The more angry or paranoid will look for every opportunity to post a comment, while those with lower-temperature feelings will comment here or there, but not everywhere. So the proportion of wild talk is not reflective of the population at large, or even here.

All this to say that I believe the poll result, from Texas, that showed both Obama and Clinton voters showing willingness to pull together in the fall. Although I’m an Obama supporter, I’m willing to vote for Hillary, and anyone who says otherwise is itching for a fight. And there are lots of those, it seems, but only here.

The Real Story


Combine two factors, the huge Democratic turnouts, and a result from pre-primary Texas polling, and the stage is set for a popular landslide. Current polls showing McCain staying close to either Clinton or Obama don’t easily measure the confidence behind the choice.

From Greg Sargent’s story on the Texas polls, "Poll: Hillary, Obama In Dead Heat In Texas":

Mirroring other recent polls in other states, Texas Dems supporting one candidate aren't acrimonious towards the other: A huge majority of 79% said they'd be happy with Hillary as the nominee, and an equal amount said the same about Obama.

Add that to the numbers showing Democratic turnouts twice as large as Republican ones in Red states as well as Blue. This can’t be dismissed as Republican voters assuming McCain as the frontrunner, since the disparity was present at the start. Nor is it simply passionate Democratic voters, as the above numbers show. Democratic partisans will mostly vote for the other candidate.

Patton famously encouraged his soldiers to make sure it was the German soldiers that died for their country. We should try to make sure it is Republican voters that lose heart and stay home as they have been up to now.

We Just Love A Fight


I note an absence of any complaining about horse-race coverage lately. Posts here are either on who's going to do better in some technical circumstance, or they are about cults vs. sleazy pols. There are occasional exceptions, looking at policy details, but since those policies are so similar, at least in comparison to the opposition, I guess we can be forgiven for just having some fun and rooting for our respective teams.

But what is there really to be said on the contest? It will happen, it is happening, there will be a winner. In the meantime, those deadly serious issues of executive usurpation, willful lawbreaking, shameless politicization of justice, human rights violations and inhumane treatment of prisoners, utter failure to address pressing needs like infrastructure and energy innovation, and damn it all, bringing Osama Bin Laden to justice (yeah, right!) are being ignored here.

More items to forget: Valerie Plame, Sibel Edmonds, the climate, internet neutrality, the surveillance state, martial-law enabling acts, detention centers in the U.S. built by Halliburton, stupid drug laws, stupid agricultural subsidies, stupid monetary policy, stupid financial market policies, insanely huge personal wealth for a few, incredbly low literacy rates for the supposed leader of the free world, beggarly wages for the low-end worker, and there is New Orleans.

Let the election go, it'll be fun, the GOP is toast, likely. But there is much to do, and we can't wait until January 2008 to start planning.
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Tom Wright

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