The Machine Stops
Said by the main character in E. M. Forster's short story of that name. He is not believed, not even understood, by the pampered people of a future time, including his mother, when he says he has seen indications of the failure of the interlocking computers and machinery system called Machine.
The fall of Rome was at first a trickle of rare problems, as I understand it. (Time to read Gibbon, I guess.) Interruptions in the supply of grain started happening, leading Rome to organize its agriculture, making it a command economy with assigned acreage. Every territory was conscripted to the job. (Discussed in "The Upside of Down", by Thomas Homer Dixon )
We are similarly dedicated to providing oil. But along with the on-the-edge supply situation we share with Rome is the lack of discretionary funds to keep stuff running. This was probably the case with Rome, where drydock repairs of supply ships was likely put off, and new ships were not commissioned. One storm and the fleet is reduced to inadequate.
We've had the levee failure in New Orleans, and now we have Minneapolis. We have supply failures from our Chinese vendors, with contaminated goods. We are seeing shutdowns of gasoline refineries these days, and we had a major grid failure in Ohio not long ago.
We also share, with Rome, the militarization of the state. Areas of weakness will be explored by the barbarians (read, other folks) and we'll lose bits of territory or influence, incrementally.
Doesn't have to happen, but without a major reversal of direction, it will.
