Off the rader, but important
After years of Republican control, Democrats were ecstatic to win back both Houses in 2006. Unfortunately, we have found that we are blocked at every turn by a Republican majority that is unshakeable in its dedication to doing nothing and bad-mouthing everything. Well, what did we expect?
But the last two years, if nothing else, should have taught us that there is no unimportant seat in either the House or the Senate. Unfortunately, one of the best chances of Democrats stealing a seat seems to be falling off of the radar. Despite the designation as a Red-to-Blue state, there doesn't seem to be much interest in New Mexico's Second District.
The first thing you should know about the district is that it's huge. The entire state of Pennsylvania could fit within its borders and have room for squeezing in a few Rhode Islands around the edges. If you think it isn't big, buddy, spend a day driving from Hobbs to Los Cruces and then up to Los Lomas.
But despite it's size, fewer than a quarter of a million votes will be cast here in November. When you spread that few votes over that big an area, you are challenging your candidate to get his or her message out. This is especially true when you consider there are probably half a dozen media centers that <i>have</i> to be coordinated and half a dozen more that <i>should</i> be worked to be successful.
History is against a Democrat here. Republican Joe Skeen won 58-42 in 2000 and Republican Steve Pearce won it 60-40 in 2004. But Steve Pearce is running for the NM-Senate this year, and trailing badly behind popular Democratic candidate Tom Udall. Obama is leading the polls in New Mexico with a steady margin and Big Bill Richardson is on the stump for every Democrat in the state.
In other words, this district is ready for a change. Plus the history isn't as bad as it seems at first blush. Democrat Harold Runnels held the seat when I was a child there. His death in 1980 led to a horrendous election where his wife split the Democratic vote with the nephew of the Governor (who also just moved into the district to run for office). That allowed moderate Republican Joe Skeen to take the office on a write-in campaign. When he died in office in 2003, Steve Pearce picked up the seat.
Think about the years - 1981-2 and 2003-4. The first rise of Ronny Reagan and the second coming of George W. Bush. This was a district that turned on the Republican brand (and, in the 1981 election, Democratic stupidity and arrogance). With the Republican brand hovering somewhere around the popularity levels of Satan and Osama bin Laden, it looks like a chance for Democrats to take back a seat they never should have lost.
Republicans have put up slick-talking <a href="http://www.nmfbihop.com/userDiary.do;jsessionid=B1B8A540F8D591F4C5E14C5E23EE9AD8?personId=195">Ed Tinsley</a> to run against <a href="http://www.harryforcongress.com/">Harry Teague</a>. The contrast could not be greater.
As a restauranteer, Tinsley has crusaded against higher minimum wages and backs a healthcare plan that is roughly analagous to a healthcare savings account that depends entirely upon his employees reporting higher tips. Teague, on the other hand, runs an oilfield service company, backs universal healthcare, and has generously run an employee tuition-assistance program for years.
While Tinsley has been able to call on his friends in the restaurant business - he served for years as an executive for the National Restaurant Association - Teague has been scrambling hard to raise money locally. Teague has managed to outraise Tinsley by <a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=NM02&cycle=2008">half a million dollars</a>, but that kind of money isn't going to last in this race. Plus, half of the money is from Teague's own pocket. That's unsustainable, and Tinsley actually has deep pockets as well. If you take all of the self-financing out of it, the fundraising has been almost steady at around $800K each.
There is no unimportant seat in the House this year. This district is an example of why Howard Dean has demanded a fifty-state effort. New Mexico stands on the verge of being completely blue this year - but <a href="http://www.actblue.com/page/reenchanttheland">Harry Teague and the New Mexico Democrats</a> aren't going to be able to do it alone.










