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   <title>TheArse&apos;s Blog</title>
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   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2009:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073</id>
   <updated>2008-12-22T17:59:33Z</updated>
   
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<entry>
   <title>Detroit Will Fail Eventually (Gulp!  Don&apos;t Hate Me!)</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/detroit-will-fail-eventually-g.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.249154</id>
   
   <published>2008-12-22T17:22:30Z</published>
   <updated>2008-12-22T17:59:33Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[Now, don't hate me, I care as much about America's working middle class as the next guy/gal, but I have been looking for a reason to endorse the automotive bailout deal for a while now.&nbsp; The reasons are just not...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Cafe" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="5648" label="bailout" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="5474" label="detroit" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[Now, don't hate me, I care as much about America's working middle class as the next guy/gal, but I have been looking for a reason to endorse the automotive bailout deal for a while now.&nbsp; The reasons are just not there, Detroit will fail eventually anyway.&nbsp; <br /><br />Yes, as an environmentalist and a liberal I am angry at Detroit for "killing the electric car", ignoring market signals for more fuel efficient cars, and mass-producing the abominable hummer; but these are the wrong reasons to oppose the bailout<br /><br />Unless Detroit does something to drastically reduce its competitive disadvantage of labor, it will never be able to compete in a global society and it will fail.&nbsp; In order to make the bailout work, it will require nationalization and subsidization at the taxpayers expense or hefty and costly trade protections on our auto markets.&nbsp; Now, I am all for government intervention in markets to provide public goods.&nbsp; But Detroit, at best, only qualifies for intervention as a producer of an externality - and this warrants mere regulations and not nationalization.&nbsp; Furthermore, tarriffs on our auto-markets will make the global auto market less competitive and more expensive, set back trade relationships that took years to develop, and pose serious risks to diplomatic relationships with other auto-producing nations.<br /><br />Now there is one argument in support of the bailout with some validity:&nbsp; that there is some value to preventing further unemployment during the worst recession since the great depression.&nbsp; This argument may have some merit.&nbsp; Unemployment in the United States is bound reach over 15% in some parts of the country over the next year.&nbsp; Despite the fact that this recession is not a typical recession, it is important to know that recessions are <i>necessary.&nbsp; </i>They restore inflation to normal levels, they force firms with bad business models out of the market, they force firms with good business models to evolve to become even more efficient, and they clear the economy of wasteful practices.&nbsp; This recession is severe - to the point where government aid approaches justification on humanitarian grounds, but we must weigh the prinicpal that bad firms must fail with these humanitarian instincts.&nbsp; It would probably be more efficient to take that bailout money to use to expand unemployment benefits than to give it to firms that are doomed to fail anyway. &nbsp; <br /><br />Finally, the cliche "main street vs. wall st." debate should be addressed.&nbsp; The world must have a functioning financial system.&nbsp; A systemic failure in the financial system is an apocalyptic event.&nbsp; Without a financial system, well - you get it - everything stops - everything.&nbsp; The world can live with a few less auto companies. <br /><br />This recession will last at least two years - it sure would suck to get out of it, after having bailed out Detroit (probably multiple times)&nbsp; that we are sent right back into another when they finally do fail. <br /> ]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Definition of American Culture Finally Includes Black America</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/definition-of-american-culture.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.248482</id>
   
   <published>2008-12-16T23:09:23Z</published>
   <updated>2008-12-17T00:12:19Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[You might not realize it from my blog, but my undergraduate work was not in economics, public policy or statistics.&nbsp; I did my undergraduate work in American History.&nbsp; I primarily studied the history of race and slavery in America.&nbsp; I...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Cafe" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="10693" label="American Dream" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[You might not realize it from my blog, but my undergraduate work was not in economics, public policy or statistics.&nbsp; I did my undergraduate work in American History.&nbsp; I primarily studied the history of race and slavery in America.&nbsp; I did my undergraduate thesis on Coalition Politics and Civil Rights in Atlanta, Georgia.&nbsp; <br /><br />Consequently, my early support for Barack Obama for President (which began precisely one minute after he walked off the convention stage in 2004) was derived from my deep seated belief that an African-American President could both unite the narrative of America with the narrative of Black America and provide incentives to African-Americans to embrace the American system as efficacious.&nbsp; Thus, the election of a Black president could at once affect white America's attitude toward the socioeconomic disadvantage of blacks and black America's attitude that they had no role to play in the American dream.&nbsp; In other words, that the election of a black President would mean that the bootstrapping American dream was finally <i>approaching </i>reality.&nbsp; <br /><br />I believe that we are beginning to see signs of this already.&nbsp; I just finished watching Kanye West perform "American Boy" with a waving American flag as his backdrop, fading to a picture of a smiling Barack Obama at the end.&nbsp; We have all seen videos of African-Americans celebrating on election night with uncontrollable tears flowing down their faces.&nbsp; We all saw the black elementary students singing "We Can Vote However We Like" to the tune of the famous T.I. song "You Can Have Whatever You Like" and saw one of them burst into tears after the election having finally realized that he could accomplish the same fate.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />The libertarian argument to this would be that it should not take the election of a black President for blacks to finally embrace the American dream.&nbsp; This argument can be dismissed with a simple rhetorical question.&nbsp; Put yourself in the shoes of an inner-city impoverished black student in a southern city (where a <i>majority</i> of black Americans live).&nbsp; What possible reason do they have to believe that they can achieve according to their ability and work ethic.&nbsp; They are surrounded by parents whose parents lived in the same housing projects and went to the same shit schools.&nbsp; The only African-American elected officials were elected from majority black districts.&nbsp; What evidence is there to believe that the opposite is possible?<br /><br />Wouldn't it be a beautiful thing if the narratives of black America and white America finally converged.&nbsp; Wouldn't it be wonderful if we finally became the nation that won the Cold War and World War II <i>and&nbsp; </i>oppressed an entire race of people in the forms of slavery and segregation.&nbsp; We <i>are</i> the nation of John Coltrane and Johnny Cash.&nbsp; We<i> are</i> the nation of Martin Luther King Jr. and Ronald Reagan; of Jay-Z and Garth Brooks; of Michael Jordan and Johnny Unitas; of inner-city slums and white picket fences; of <i>The Wire</i> and <i>24.&nbsp; </i>This is the true definition of America.<br /><br />We have always been capable of awesome accomplishments and nasty ugliness.&nbsp; We are the nation that won the Civil War, put a man on the moon, stormed the beach at Normandy, and outlasted the soviets.&nbsp; Now, we are the nation that elected Barack Obama.&nbsp; Hopefully he will live up to his promise, but his election is cause to reflect on our story.<br /><br />We live in a great country - be proud of it.<br /> ]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Healthcare Costs and the Myth of Long Waiting Lines, Cont.</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/healthcare-costs-and-the-myth-1.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.247383</id>
   
   <published>2008-12-09T15:33:43Z</published>
   <updated>2008-12-09T15:48:48Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[Exam week means blogging will be short, sweet, and intermittent.&nbsp; To completely understand the scope of this post, please review this post in which I argue that waiting times for health services is an inaccurate measure of a health system's...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Cafe" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="6184" label="Healthcare" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[Exam week means blogging will be short, sweet, and intermittent.&nbsp; <br /><br />To completely understand the scope of this post, please review this <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/healthcare-costs-and-the-myth.php">post</a> in which I argue that waiting times for health services is an inaccurate measure of a health system's efficiency because excessive costs keep people from joining the list in the first place.&nbsp; This is what statisticians and economists would call a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heckman_correction">Heckman selection bias</a> where the sample is biased by the dependent variable itself.&nbsp; <br /><br />The <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/business/09emergency.html?_r=1&amp;ref=business">New York Times today</a>:<br /><br /><blockquote>As increasing numbers of the unemployed and uninsured turn to the
nation's emergency rooms as a medical last resort, doctors warn that
the centers -- many already overburdened -- could have even more trouble
handling the heart attacks, broken bones and other traumas that define
their core mission.<br /><br />...The number of patients coming to emergency departments has been
steadily increasing. Helping push up that volume have been the growing
ranks of the uninsured, because emergency rooms are legally obliged to
see all patients who enter their doors, regardless of their ability to
pay.<br /><br /></blockquote>So, building off my previous post, Americans are foregoing preventative care because they cannot afford it, keeping waiting lists short.&nbsp; However, because they have not received preventative care, when their condition worsens they are forced to receive acute or emergency care.&nbsp; The large numbers of uninsured in America thus end up clogging up the nation's emergency rooms and hampering their response to life-threatening situtions.<br /><br />The argument that a recession is the wrong time for a healthcare bill is utter nonsense.&nbsp;&nbsp; The growing numbers of uninsured will further drive up health insurance costs due to adverse selection and will make our system even less efficient.&nbsp; We need everyone to have access to preventative care.<br /> ]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Exams</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/exams.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.247142</id>
   
   <published>2008-12-08T13:39:04Z</published>
   <updated>2008-12-08T13:39:39Z</updated>
   
   <summary>See you in a few weeks!...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="10186" label="exams" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      See you in a few weeks! 
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Healthcare Costs and the Myth of Long Waiting Lines</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/healthcare-costs-and-the-myth.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.247110</id>
   
   <published>2008-12-07T20:31:39Z</published>
   <updated>2008-12-07T21:30:14Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[As some of you may remember, I blogged about statistical analysis done at angry bear a few weeks back.&nbsp; For a lay interpretation of the statistics, review my post here.&nbsp; The analysis results showed a statistically significant relationship between health...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Cafe" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="6184" label="Healthcare" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[As some of you may remember, I blogged about statistical analysis done at <a href="http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2008/11/relative-efficiency-of-public-and.html">angry bear</a> a few weeks back.&nbsp; For a lay interpretation of the statistics, review my post <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/11/must-read-for-liberals-interes.php">here.</a>&nbsp; The analysis results showed a statistically significant relationship between health and public health expenditures.&nbsp; Contrastly, private health expenditures had no effect on health.&nbsp; <br /><br />In my post interpreting the results, I mentioned that Americans actually receive less health services than Canadians under their public system with a ratio of .71:1.&nbsp; That is to say that every Americans receives .71 health services for every health service recieved by a Canadian (per the highly reputable Victor Fuch's <u>Future of Health Policy</u>).&nbsp; This statistic seems to run counter to the conservative counter argument that Canadian's have to wait in long lines for health services and that is something worth paying much more to avoid.&nbsp; <br /><br />Ezra Klein explains <a href="http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=12&amp;year=2008&amp;base_name=notes_from_a_panel">why</a>: <br /><br /><blockquote><p>Waiting times: Here's how the dodge works: If you look at waiting
times, you'll see that relatively few Americans wait more than four
months for surgery, which helps folks claim that America doesn't ration
care, and makes our system look pretty good on the waiting times
metric. Here's what they don't tell you: When you look at who foregoes
care, the international comparisons reverse themselves. About 23% of
Americans report that they didn't receive care, or get a test due to
cost. In Canada, that number is 5.5%.</p>

<p>Worse, the American number is understated, as in order to know you
need a surgery or further care, you need to go for an initial
appointment, and as it happens, many Americans -- including 36 percent
below average income -- aren't even seeking that. And it's this group
-- which is largely low-income, and I'd guess, largely urban -- who
would, in another country, be experiencing terrific wait times. Here,
they never get care at all. We call that "no wait" rather than infinite
wait. The studies misleadingly write them out of the waiting
statistics, making it look like America has low wait times when the
relevant population is simply never getting care at all. But would you
rather be the urban poor in London, who wait a year for a hip
replacement, or the urban poor in America, who never get one?</p>

<p>So it's not good and it's not pleasant. Maybe it's cheap?<br />
 <br />
Canada: $3678<br />
France: $3449<br />
Germany: $3371<br />
UK: $2760<br />
USA: $6714</p>

<p>The difference between UK and America could buy every America 5.3 ounces of pure gold per year. </p>

<p>Value: Who has better outcomes is like Camry vs. Accord. Some things
are better on one car, some things are worse. But if you paid 15,000
for your Camry, and I paid $22,000 for my Accord, then in fact the
Camry is MUCH better. </p>

<p>So it's not cheap, and it's not pleasant, and it's not good. We may
not agree on what reform looks like, but we should be able to agree
that this is not acceptable. There is no defense for a system
delivering such poor value.</p></blockquote><p>Therefore, the reason wait times seem shorter in the United States is that many people can't afford the service in the first place and thus forego the procedure entirely.&nbsp; This is a perfect example of what statisticians would call a selection bias.&nbsp; This particular selection bias occurs when you are actually selecting on the dependent variable.&nbsp; That is to say that the sample (those in line for a health service) is not complete by the very nature of what your trying to measure (the number of people waiting for service).&nbsp; The number of people in line for health services and the amount of time on waiting lists would drastically increase if everyone were able to afford the procedure.&nbsp; Because costs keep people off the waiting lists, measuring waiting
times as indicator of a good health system will make the system look
more efficient than it actually is.</p><p>This is consistent with my previous post because it illustrates how a public system in which everyone could participate would represent an aggregate improvement in health.<br /></p><a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/11/must-read-for-liberals-interes.php"> </a>]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Multiple Sclerosis</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/multiple-sclerosis.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.246997</id>
   
   <published>2008-12-05T21:31:34Z</published>
   <updated>2008-12-05T21:55:10Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[For those of you, like me, whose lives have been impacted by this disease you will appreciate the stories from these 8 patients.&nbsp; Unfortunately, my family has recently been introduced to this disease.&nbsp; How this person has coped with his...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Cafe" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="6184" label="Healthcare" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="10109" label="Multiple Sclerosis" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[For those of you, like me, whose lives have been impacted by this disease you will appreciate the stories from these<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/12/03/health/healthguide/TE_MULTIPLESCLEROSIS.html"> 8 patients</a>.&nbsp; <br /><br />Unfortunately, my family has recently been introduced to this disease.&nbsp; How this person has coped with his diagnosis is nothing short of heroic.&nbsp; <br /><br />The drug costs for multiple sclerosis treatment are <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/14/us/14drug.html?scp=6&amp;sq=prescription%20drug%20costs%20multiple%20sclerosis&amp;st=cse">skyrocketing</a>.&nbsp; So much so that many insurance companies are no longer able to cover them.&nbsp; <br /><br />For those of you who know little about multiple sclerosis and are looking for a cause to crusade for, you should consider devoting some of your resources to multiple sclerosis research and awareness.&nbsp; Multiple sclerosis affects women at roughly 3 times the rate of men.<br /><br />If you feel so called, please visit the <a href="http://www.nationalmssociety.org/index.aspx">Multiple Sclerosis Society website.<br /><br /></a>.<br /> ]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Regulating the Mortgage Market, Part Deux.</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/regulating-the-mortgage-market-1.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.246917</id>
   
   <published>2008-12-05T15:59:59Z</published>
   <updated>2008-12-05T16:10:13Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[First, lets start with a link to calculated risk.&nbsp; Second, I would like to thank Atrios for linking to this yesterday.&nbsp; Now for a quote:I've heard from industry insiders (not confirmed) that Fannie Mae is putting a limit on the...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Cafe" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="6185" label="Housing" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="9186" label="Mortgage Market" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[First, lets start with a link to <a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/fannie-mae-limits-dti-regardless-of-aus.html">calculated risk</a>.&nbsp; Second, I would like to thank Atrios for linking to this yesterday.&nbsp; <br /><br />Now for a quote:<br /><br /><blockquote>I've heard from industry insiders (not confirmed) that Fannie Mae is putting a limit on the debt <i>service</i>-to-income
(DTI) ratio of borrowers regardless of the Automated Underwriting
System (AUS) decisions for loans requiring mortgage insurance
(Loan-to-value (LTV) &gt; 80%). This is apparently due to pressure from
the mortgage insurers (MIs).<br /></blockquote><br /><span class="story_comment_back_quote">I think regulating mortgage terms for the GSE's is a probably smart in the short term. <br /><br />Despite what many on the right claim, Fannie and Freddie had a very small percentage of subprime mortgages in their portfolios (see <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/mt-static/html/www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/htmudd041707.pdf">this congressional testimony</a>).&nbsp; </span><span class="story_comment_back_quote">The problems the GSEs came across had a lot to do with
automated underwriting which used statistical analysis to get a better
idea of default risk. </span><span class="story_comment_back_quote">During the bubble, this automated underwriting
system allowed some sketchy loans because the statistical indicators
weren't showing much default risk. However, the reason for this wasn't
a problem with the system - it was a problem with the market. The
reason it wasn't showing any risks of default was that no one was
defaulting! <br /><br />The GSEs should continue to gather data through
this collapse, get a better idea of risk, then let the automated
underwriting programs get back to work.</span>&nbsp; Statistical analysis means a better idea of risk, a better understanding of risk is always a good thing<br /> ]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Political Ideology and Public Policy; My Story</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/political-ideology-and-public.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.246872</id>
   
   <published>2008-12-05T03:45:55Z</published>
   <updated>2008-12-05T04:25:28Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[Since I'm a relative newbie here, I would like to take some time out from my tedious policy discussions to let you know what I'm all about.&nbsp; Before digging in, I have really enjoyed becoming a member of the TPM...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Cafe" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="10040" label="Political Ideology" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="10041" label="Public Policy" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[Since I'm a relative newbie here, I would like to take some time out from my tedious policy discussions to let you know what I'm all about.&nbsp; Before digging in, I have really enjoyed becoming a member of the TPM community and have appreciated all the blogs that I have read and the comments others have made on mine.&nbsp; <br /><br />Now, I am under no grand illusions that what I have to say will garner a large readership or a lot traffic, but I do believe that my experience with government and my chosen profession as a policy analyst has inspired me to take a rather unique approach to political blogging.&nbsp; If your willing to read on, I'd like to tell you about it.<br /><br />I believe in numbers.&nbsp; And I believe that Political Ideology can destroy the process with which you gather and interpret numbers.&nbsp; Unfortunately there a lot of cynics that would tell you that you can make numbers tell you what you want to know.&nbsp; Even more unfortunately, those cynics are right.&nbsp; Numbers in the hands of someone with an agenda can make them tell you whatever they want to tell you.<br /><br />However, that is why public policy must be approached from a scientific and analytical perspective.&nbsp; Formulate hypotheses, test those hypotheses using your statistical tools, then rigorously analyze the story those statistics tell you. Look at the distribution of your data to determine the effect on the entire population (the poor, the rich, minorities, etc.) and not just the mean; then test the same model using different tools to figure out exactly how robust your findings are. <br /><br />Political Ideology precludes people from specifying and interpreting data correctly and thus leads to poor public policy decisions and failed policies.&nbsp; I think that the TANF post I wrote earlier today is prime example of this.&nbsp; Bill Clinton, seeking to triangulate between ideologies on the left and the right designed a policy that was completely ineffectual.&nbsp; The President allowed the states and localities to continue to play the chief role in determining eligibility and benefits to satisfy conservatives on the right, completely overlooking the fact that the decentralized system was designed to keep African Americans off of the roles by 1935 southern Democrats.&nbsp; This fractured the risk pool and crippled the program.<br /><br />I am a Democrat because the numbers take me there.&nbsp; This is not because Democrats do not let their ideology skew their analysis.&nbsp; It is because Republican conservative ideology has become nothing but mere ideology that cannot be supported by any rigorous analysis.&nbsp; <br /><br />Thus, I will continue to bore you with tedious discussions on complicated issues that are critically important.&nbsp; I hope that you will take the time to read along and comment on the way with your input.&nbsp; Thanks.<br /> ]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>America&apos;s Safety Net will not Catch The Poor This Time Around</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/americas-safety-net-will-not-c.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.246755</id>
   
   <published>2008-12-04T15:08:51Z</published>
   <updated>2008-12-05T05:58:59Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Warning: Policy Wonkish post below.I have been meaning to blog about this NYT article on the recession and America&apos;s safety net for quite some time: Unemployment insurance is not as generous now. Yet the unemployment rate is at 6.5 percent...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Cafe" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="9966" label="Welfare Reform" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[Warning: Policy Wonkish post below.<br /><br />I have been meaning to blog about this <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/16/weekinreview/16greenhouse.html?_r=1&amp;scp=2&amp;sq=safety%20net&amp;st=cse">NYT article on the recession and America's safety net</a> for quite some time: <br /><br /><blockquote><p>Unemployment insurance is not as generous now. Yet the unemployment
rate is at 6.5 percent and some forecasters say it could top 8 percent
next year. It hit 10.8 percent in the early 1980s. </p></blockquote><blockquote>This is also the first severe economic slump since President <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/c/bill_clinton/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Bill Clinton.">Bill Clinton</a>
overhauled the welfare system and made it tougher to qualify for, and
keep receiving, benefits. Many people who lose their jobs now and fall
into poverty may not qualify for public assistance. Other programs
designed in part to counter hard times -- like job training and housing
subsidies -- have also been cut back.<br /></blockquote>If you are a follower of my blog or know me personally, you have probably picked up on some anti-Bill Clinton sentiment.&nbsp; The primary reason for my President Clinton hate is the 1996 PRWORA welfare-reform bill which should serve as primary example as to how triangulated policies result in very bad policies.&nbsp; I will get to the NYT article, but first let me point out TANF's&nbsp; (welfare) failures:<br /><br /><ol><li>By establishing welfare as a maintenance-of-effort grant, states are tasked with setting benefit levels themselves.&nbsp; This has the effect of fracturing the risk pool.&nbsp; By doing so, it is impossible for high poverty risk states (poor states like Mississippi) to be subsidized by the low poverty risk states (wealthy states like Connecticut).&nbsp; This has made it impossible for TANF to actually reduce poverty rates as the states where poverty is concentrated cannot afford to payout enough benefits to the impoverished.</li><li>Because 54% of African Americans live in the South, where conservative ideology, racial stereotypes of welfare recipients, and poverty are concentrated, TANF has perpetuated the wage differentials between races.</li><li>It is economically inefficient - the argument behind unemployment insurance is that substantial time is required to match our labor resources with our employment opportunities.&nbsp; If someone has to settle on the first job available to them, it is an inefficient allocation of the nation's labor resources.&nbsp; However, if someone loses their job but does not qualify for&nbsp; Unemployment, they are forced to take TANF which mandates that they be employed to receive benefits.&nbsp; Thus they are incentivized to take the first job offered to them no matter if they are overqualified or not.</li><li>By capping the number of months that can be spent on benefits, recipients must go off TANF every month that they possibly can.&nbsp; Thus many recipients live in constant flux between the TANF rolls and living around the poverty line.</li></ol>The function of an effective welfare system should be to cycle people out of poverty and into stable jobs.&nbsp; However, TANF, by forcing recipients to take the first job available to them, often with little prospect for advancement, and then forcing them to live floating between the rolls and barely scraping by capping the number of months benefits are available, we have created a system that is economically inefficient and does not reduce poverty.&nbsp; <br /><br />Now, to bring it back around to the NYT article.&nbsp; The next few years will drastically test TANF's ability to serve the poor during this recession.&nbsp; It has been 12 years since welfare reform, 12 years of recipients floating on and off the rolls.&nbsp; As unemployment continues to skyrocket, many of these current and past recipients will be cycled off the payrolls and forced to find menial work in order to receive TANF benefits.&nbsp; Given the severity of this recession, it is likely that&nbsp; the labor market will take 2-3 years to recover.&nbsp; It is thus likely that we will begin to see the first round of TANF recipients that exhaust their benefits.&nbsp; They will not have any more benefits available to them for the rest of their life.&nbsp; If this happens, poverty rates will begin to rise again and we will be forced to revisit welfare reform.<br /><br />UPDATE - This was cross-posted to a Daily Kos diary, where I was honored by its mention in the <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/12/4/22339/0603/710/669495">Diary Rescue</a>&nbsp; <br /> ]]>
      
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</entry>

<entry>
   <title>How the National Debt Could Screw the Poor</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/how-the-national-debt-could-sc.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.246576</id>
   
   <published>2008-12-03T05:25:15Z</published>
   <updated>2008-12-03T05:58:33Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[President Obama will run huge deficits in the coming years.&nbsp; This is a necessary response to a desperate economy.&nbsp; However, those of us concerned with equity must beware how the United States goes about repaying this debt in the future.&nbsp;...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
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      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="9935" label="National Debt" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[President Obama will run huge deficits in the coming years.&nbsp; This is a necessary response to a desperate economy.&nbsp; However, those of us concerned with equity must beware how the United States goes about repaying this debt in the future.&nbsp; Roughly 45% of the debt is owned by the <a href="http://www.optimist123.com/optimist/2007/03/updated_pie_cha.html">federal government itself</a>.&nbsp; A lesser observer may claim that a practical response would be to let the government default on the debt it owns itself.&nbsp; We must not let this happen.<br /><br />That debt is owned by entitlements savings accounts that are funded by the regressive payroll tax. That is to say that low-income earners pay a greater percentage of their income towards the tax.&nbsp; The payroll tax is a 15% tax levied on all earnings up to $97,000 dollars.&nbsp; Every dollar earned on top of this amount is not taxed.&nbsp; Consider the person earning $35K.&nbsp; This person will pay 15% of his income towards the payroll tax.&nbsp; Now consider the person earning $200K.&nbsp; This person will pay roughly 7% of his income towards the payroll tax.&nbsp; This is justified (not making judgement just stating the rationale) by the fact that benefits for entitlements are funded in a progressive manner in that lower income households benefit much more from entitlements (ie. the progressivity of the Social Security benefit formula).<br /><br />These funds are being borrowed from these savings accounts to pay for discretionary general fund expenditures.&nbsp; The general fund is funded by the progressive income tax.&nbsp; That is to say that higher income taxpayers pay a greater percentage of their income.&nbsp; Therefore, as of now, the federal government is borrowing from low-income families to pay for expenditures that should be funded by higher income families.&nbsp; <br /><br />If the federal government were to default on this debt, it would effectively be a transfer from low-income families to high-income families.&nbsp; Thus, it is absolutely essential that the federal government not default on its debt to entitlement programs.&nbsp; <br /> ]]>
      
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</entry>

<entry>
   <title>We Want Joe</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/12/we-want-joe.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.246571</id>
   
   <published>2008-12-03T03:10:55Z</published>
   <updated>2008-12-03T03:27:55Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[I am a JoeManiac.&nbsp; I looooovve me some Biden. Always have.&nbsp; Always will.&nbsp; I was excited when then Senator Obama chose then Senator Biden as his running mate.&nbsp; On top of the obvious political advantages of having someone with a...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
      <category term="Cafe" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="3668" label="Biden" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[I am a JoeManiac.&nbsp; I looooovve me some Biden. Always have.&nbsp; Always will.&nbsp; I was excited when then Senator Obama chose then Senator Biden as his running mate.&nbsp; On top of the obvious political advantages of having someone with a blue collar background and ties to Pennsylvania, the pick really solidified my belief that Barack Obama cared about the nuances of public and foreign policy.&nbsp; <br /><br />For all of Vice President-Elect Biden's shortcomings (which often make him more appealing to a guy like myself), he has very attractive credentials that Barack Obama should avail himself of.&nbsp; The first is obvious: foreign policy.&nbsp; Anyone trolling through tpm blogs at 10pm probably already know about Mr. Biden's credentials in this area so I don't see any need to dwell on them.&nbsp; The second is that he would be a very useful liason to the senate where he has many powerful connections on both sides of the aisle.&nbsp; Thirdly, his time in Washington should make him a go to guy on all matters political, from the intricate process of policy development and implementation, to agenda setting.&nbsp; <br /><br />JoeManiacs like myself are feeling pretty concerned that Obama will not use Mr. Biden efficiently.&nbsp; This concern is probably wholly without merit, as all of my intuition about the President-Elect tell me that he is a man that values smart people and their opinions.&nbsp; However, I guess we were hoping that Mr. Biden would play a large role in the administration.&nbsp; As it looks right now, the roles that he would be most suited for seem to be getting crowded out by larger personalities like Senator Clinton and Rep. Rahm Emmanuel.&nbsp; So I guess the point of this posting is thus - how bout letting us know what Joe is going to do?&nbsp; <br /> ]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Must Read for Liberals Interested in Healthcare Reform:  Public Healthcare Expenditure has a Demonstrated Effect on Health.  </title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/11/must-read-for-liberals-interes.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.245938</id>
   
   <published>2008-11-26T15:25:02Z</published>
   <updated>2008-11-26T15:32:44Z</updated>
   
   <summary>EVERYONE should review this post and these numbers. The regression results are consistent with the facts that free-market health care results in adverse selection in insurance, moral hazard, and fails to price externalities. The regression results show a statistically significant...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
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   <category term="6209" label="Health Insurance" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="6184" label="Healthcare" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="8837" label="reform" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[<span class="story_comment_back_quote">EVERYONE should review this <a href="http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2008/11/relative-efficiency-of-public-and.html">post
and these numbers</a>. The regression results are consistent with the facts
that free-market health care results in adverse selection in insurance,
moral hazard, and fails to price externalities. <br /><br />The regression
results show a statistically significant negative relationship (as
public health care expenditures go up, health improves) between public
health care expenditures and infant mortality rates, while showing a
statistically insignificant positive relationship between private
expenditures and infant mortality (the amount of private expenditures
is not correlated with health).</span><br /><br />The fact that the number of private health care dollars has no
significant effect on health is consistent with theory. Consider the
United States, health care services and insurance are provided privately
and they are much more expensive as a result (US health care
expenditures: Canada health care expenditures = 1.71:1) but we do not
receive more services (US healthcare services received: Canada
health care services received .71:1).&nbsp; <br /><br />For those of you who do not speak econometrics - this means that public health care systems are more efficient and result in healthier nations, while market based systems are inherently inefficient due to market failures and reduce a nation's health.<br /> ]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Green Mortgages</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/11/green-mortgages.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.245471</id>
   
   <published>2008-11-21T23:54:28Z</published>
   <updated>2008-11-21T23:57:39Z</updated>
   
   <summary>A green mortgage is essentially a new mortgage underwriting technique which a borrower can qualify for if the house is energy efficient, healthy, and durable.Green mortgages require a larger initial investment and a larger loan (up to 15%). This investment...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
   <category term="9346" label="Green Mortgage" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
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      <![CDATA[A green mortgage is essentially a new mortgage underwriting technique
which a borrower can qualify for if the house is energy efficient,
healthy, and durable.<br /><br />Green mortgages require a larger initial
investment and a larger loan (up to 15%). This investment will finance
green improvements to an existing home or finance the additional costs
of building a new home to green standards. However, over the life of a
mortgage (15-30 years) the savings from energy and health costs will be
substantially more than the increase in your PITI, thus yielding
returns that could reach tens of thousands of dollars. Furthermore,
since the initial improvement was financed by your mortgage, the
returns of your investment are felt immediately as you will be paying
less energy+PITI.<br /><br />Green houses can cut energy costs by up to 50%.  It is unknown how much health costs will be reduced by improved air quality.<br /><br />By
factoring in these savings into mortgage underwriting formulas,
borrowers can qualify for larger loans. On a macro level, this means
that more people can qualify for home loans, that the marginal borrower is
going to need less total income, and that access to homeownership will
improve.<br /><br />Because mortgage default is so costly to the lender,
underwriters must allow a good deal of type II error (false negatives)
to make up for the risk of a type I error (false positive - so
basically banks deny a lot of applications that would have turned out
to be solid investments to overcompensate for the uncertainty of risk).
By factoring in energy and health savings into mortgage underwriting,
underwriters get a more accurate estimate of a borrowers risk of
default and are thus more confident in their assessment. Improved
confidence in risk assessment means that more loans will be accepted at
the margin, which will primarily benefit low-income households and
underserved populations.<br /><br />Lastly, mainstreaming green mortgages
could be useful in the housing climate today. By allowing more people
to take out loans, this will shift the demand for housing upwards,
driving up price and quantity. By investing in the quality of our
homes, houses will be worth more, further driving up price.<br /><br />Notice I haven't made an
environmental argument? Thats because it is a good policy even without
the added bonus of saving the planet.<br /><br />So basically Green
Mortgages are fucking cool as shit. They literally have zero down-side.
Good for lenders, borrowers, good for the economy.&nbsp; Some may say that this isn't the time to invest in this stuff, but I'd argue that this is the perfect time. ]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>We All live in a Yellow Submarine...</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/11/we-all-live-in-a-yellow-submar.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.245469</id>
   
   <published>2008-11-21T23:36:52Z</published>
   <updated>2008-11-21T23:45:26Z</updated>
   
   <summary>...and its sinking very rapidly....</summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
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      <category term="Muckraker" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   <category term="5787" label="unemployment" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[...and its <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm">sinking</a> very rapidly. ]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Regulating the Mortgage Market</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/2008/11/regulating-the-mortgage-market.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/thearse//5073.245112</id>
   
   <published>2008-11-19T21:59:01Z</published>
   <updated>2008-11-19T22:16:39Z</updated>
   
   <summary><![CDATA[After this mess is over, the federal government should not begin regulating the mortgage market where the rubber meets the road.&nbsp; That is to say, the federal government should not dictate the terms of mortgages to private entities.&nbsp; This would...]]></summary>
   <author>
      <name>TheArse</name>
      
   </author>
   
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   <category term="9184" label="Housing Crisis" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="9186" label="Mortgage Market" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   <category term="9187" label="Regulation" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thearse/">
      <![CDATA[After this mess is over, the federal government should not begin regulating the mortgage market where the rubber meets the road.&nbsp; That is to say, the federal government should not dictate the terms of mortgages to private entities.&nbsp; This would handcuff the financial system to regulations that would have to be adjusted almost constantly.&nbsp; Furthermore, regulations would create distortions in the marketplace as actors seek to find ways around them, which given the complexity of the mortgage market across income levels and geography, they would be certain to do.&nbsp; Any attempt to regulate mortgage terms would be futile and would do much more harm than good.<br /><br />However, there are two policy changes that the federal government should address:<br /><br />1)&nbsp; Use Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to encourage better lending practices.&nbsp; The GSEs buy up roughly 40% of the nation's mortgages.&nbsp; Though most of their products are relatively safe and their subprime portfolio was minuscule - they will almost certainly gobble up a larger share of the market now after the takeover and the failures of several investment banks.<br /><br />2)&nbsp; Regulate Capital:Leverage ratios.&nbsp; Had the banks not been so capital constrained, they would not have all had to offload assets simultaneously, creating a "run on the bank" and driving prices down.&nbsp; <br /><br />This 2nd policy is essential.&nbsp; Since we are not likely to see another housing bubble such as this one, policies directed specifically at the housing market are likely to simply create barriers to market transactions.&nbsp; Policies aimed at maintaining a level of liquidity will protect against unforeseen problems in the future.<br /> ]]>
      
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