What is So Hard About This for Them?
Today, Andrew Alexander, the WaPo's brand new ombudsman took on Will's instantly infamous global warming denial column. Now Alexander is a big improvement over Deborah Howell. (Despite his prior involvement in the story, somehow, I didn't really get that Howell had been replaced until today.) In his column, Alexander distinguished between what he did before--pass on Fred Hiatt's horsedookie about the many layers of fact checking that WaPo editorials are subjected to--and what he was supposed to do as an ombudsman--check the facts and make a call. At least he got that, which is more than Debbie ever would have done--and then he did the craziest thing. He read Will's putative sources and, amazingly, came to the conclusion that George either misunderstood or willfully misrepresentated them and that there were any number of points at which it should have been obvious to Fred's "fact checkers" that they needed to call an expert. (Although, evidently, the idea that an expert might be needed in all cases involving the interpretation of complex scientific studies was too big a leap for him.)
Of course, we didn't get this without the obligatory MSM whine about how dirty fucking hippies were bombarding the WaPo in an "orchestrated" campaign or emails and letters, many (pass me my smelling salts) using the exact same words.
Still, he administered a mild, ineffectual, spanking to George, which was good. Was was bad, however, was his failure to identify the fundemental problem with both the column and the supposed fact-checking: both adhered to the the conservative theory of citation. In Conservative Lorld, if you state a proposition and footnote it and the footnote identifies a publication, then the propostion is valid because you have a source. In Conservative Land, however, whether that publication actually supports the proposition for which it is cited is irrelevant. The only relevant thing is that a source was cited: it is the citation that makes it true, not the content of the source.
Ann Coulter's entire career is built on this little trick. It is symptomatic of the post-modern intellectual nihilism that has pushed both conservatism and the United States to the brink of disaster. And its exactly what both Will, Will's assistant and Fred Hiatt's purported fact checkers work was based upon. It is a sad comment on the state of journalism that the ombudsman of the second most important paper in America failed to even notice it.
Instead, he had to go and ruin whatever good he'd done by saying this in his penultimate graph:
There is a disturbing if-you-don't-agree-with-me-you're-an-idiot tone to much of the global warming debate. Thoughtful discourse is noticeably absent in the current dispute. But that's where The Post could have helped, and can in the future.
And that's the part where I grabbed a double handful of my own hair and went "gaaaahhhh!"
I do not understand why this is so hard for people who call themselves journalists to understand. I really don't. I'd love for someone to explain it to me.
The Earth is round and revolves around the sun along with the other planets, There is no room for "debate" about that. If you, instead, believe that the Earth is flat and heavenly bodies are attached to crystalline spheres, some revolving in little epicycles as they move with their spheres, then you are, in fact, an idiot.
Regardless of whether you acknowledge the Copernican and Newtonian theories or whether you still cling to the Ptolomaic order, If you believe that the future can be predicted by studying heavenly bodies, you are an idiot. There is no room for debate about that.
If you do not agree with me that combustion is the result of rapid oxidation and, instead, believe that burning is the result of the release of a mysterious "fifth element" called "phlogiston," you are an idiot. No debate. Ditto evolution. Ditto the theory that the speed of light is constant.
All scientific truth is conditional and subject to change, but scientific truths are not subject to "debate" by laymen. It's not about what you "believe." The results of a dial-in instant poll on the germ theory of disease are quite irrelevant to the cause of illness. That's not how it works. If you think otherwise, well, you're an idiot. The "beliefs" of some guy on a barstool or of an oil executive who's worried about carbon caps are, quite literally, utterly irrelevant. And, for that matter, so are the "beliefs" of a handful of more or less credentialed kooks and whores who are paid to have different opinions. Even if I have a Ph.D in chemistry and a full professorship at Liberty University, there is no "debate" even though I insist that the phlogiston theory of burning has not been disproved.
In lay terms, scientific truth is debatable if, and only if, there are significant observed data, or reproducible experimental results, that cannot possibly be explained by the prevailing theory. However, only other experts get to have a piece of that debate. Whether the Higgs bosun really exists is open to debate, but if you think George Will's opinion on this topic, or "thoughtful discourse" by people with no training in quantum physics, is meaningful and needful, well, you are an idiot.
The same principle applies to history and policy.
If you want to argue that we should let the economy collapse and recover on its own, rather than expand government spending and try to stop it, that's a legitimately debatable point. It's an argument about competing norms rather than one about facts. However, if you choose to bolster your argument by contending that the New Deal made the Depression worse, or, claiming that the fundementals of our economy are sound, then you are an either lying to yourself, and therefore an idiot, or lying to me and therefore unworthy of being heard.
If you want to argue that the economic cost of doing anything about global warming is so high that we should just run the risk that the most dire outcomes within the range of outcomes predicted by our current models will occur, that's a legitimate debate. I will question your common sense, and maybe your motives, but I will not say you' are not entitled to make the argument, if only because the argument will sharpen our understanding of our options. However, if you want to say we shouldn't risk doing anything because you don't believe anything bad is going to happen, well, you're an idiot. There is no debate, no reason to listen to you and, in particular, no reason to print your "side" in the paper so that the readers can make up their own minds. None.
I really don't get what's so hard about that for them.












Thank you Steve.
I'm working on my Masters in Geology and I think I can expand a bit on what makes for 'scientific debate'. Data that doesn't fit an existing model is insufficient to make it 'debate'. For starters, there has to be sufficient data that doesn't fit the existing model to rule out the possibility of researcher's bias, analytical inconsistency, or even just a good-old exception to the rule (which unless you work in chemistry, the most empirical of all the sciences, there always is).
So, the data that doesn't fit needs to be well-documented and have reproducibility, by multiple researchers (who are not affiliated with one another in any way. From there, before it qualifies as debate, someone has to present another, workable alternative, generally that both accommodates the data that doesn't fit, as well as the bulk of the data that does. If you simply sit back and say, 'no, it doesn't do that' you lose all credibility in the academic community, and are either considered
A) A fossil stuck in his/her antiquated ways
B) A lunatic (and many of these DO NOT prove to be right in the end, despite 'popular opinion)
or
C)An argumentative douchebag (these exist- I've heard of researchers being physically removed from conferences for acting like this)
Once someone has a credible alternative that covers the anomalous data as well as the bulk of the 'normal' data, thats the point at which you have scientific debate. Not, as the Climate change deniers would have us believe, when someone loud disagrees without an alternative.
February 28, 2009 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
As you pursue your scientific career, you must keep in mind that the scientific method is not the one that is usually understood or used by society at large in the United States (nor by university administrators, corporate managers, funding bureaucrats, etc).
Instead, the generally used method of determining the truth is modeled on English law, which in turn derives from trial by combat.
It assumes that the truth can be arrived at by dividing the house into two camps, which then assemble all the data (valid or not), reasoning (specious or not), and rhetoric (vacuuous or not) for their side. The argument between the sides is carried on until either one side is exhausted or a vote is taken.
In an actual legal trial, the sides are refereed by a judge and constrained by the rules of evidence. But if you sit as a juror, you will see that a trial does not resemble a search for truth by impartial collection and analysis of the data and facts, followed by a carefully reasoned argument to arrive at a consensus.
The argumentation/legal/democratic process, ugly and flawed as it is, has the salient advantage that it usually arrives at a verdict within a predictable time. The defendant is found guilty or not; the brick sidewalks are laid in the historic distric or not; the misbehaving country is bombed or not. The scientific process may leave one collecting more data and reexamining the math or logic.
March 1, 2009 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nicely done. You deserve a larger forum.
February 28, 2009 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess my latest idea of having a debate titled --
Gravity: Is it real, or are we all just kinda Magnetic? -- is off the table, eh?
Thanks, NC Steve; I made a point about this when I noticed an internet poll asking what people thought about strange lights seen over Texas, which the military and weather people claimed not to know what they were. The survey was worded:
Do you believe the lights are:
1. Falling space debris
2. UFO's
3. Not Sure
When I clicked on #3 out of curiosity, I was surprised to see that around 39,000 people had responded and about 19,000 "believed" it was #1. The next most frequent was "not sure," which was a bit of a relief. But it advanced the idea that you should "believe" something based on absolutely NOTHING.
If a hunch is good enough for George Will, I guess it's good enough for many others as well. That doesn't mean the WAPO should encourage it.
Good post. Rec'd
February 28, 2009 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The only relevant thing is that a source was cited. "
Yes, I've noted this and similar syndromes on the right. Maybe they occur on the left too but those don't jump out at me. There is a large segment of the Republican/Conservative/Right (RCR) which clearly believes in lip service as sufficient. It's a kind of triumph, or would-be triumph, of image over idea, of superficial perception over deeper understanding, or of love of the icon over love of God.
Is it that they are shallow (when not outright liars)?
March 1, 2009 1:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cheney made this into an art form. First he would leak something to a media person, not for attribution. Once it was published, he would cite it as a reference to prove his point. What a sleaze-bag.
March 1, 2009 7:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was just at CNN's website following a posting on Iraqi leaders talking about Obama's withdrawal plan. There i saw a ad for CleanCoal. Maybe thats the problem. Its hard to state honest facts when you lose money when you do.
March 1, 2009 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Steve. Recommended.
Here's the thing: George Will isn't an idiot. He's a Cubs fan. Clinging grimly to a minority position in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary is woven deep in his genetic fiber. I should know.
Yes, there is a cabal of researchers clutching four-color charts demonstrating the myth of climate change. The fact that their paper, ink and billable hours are funded by Exxon Mobil shouldn't, I suppose, automatically discredit their position.
My question for George is this: is maintaining our oil-fueled energy gluttony worth the risk, given that climate change deniers represent a tiny minority of scientific opinion?
Further, given that petrodollars are a primary source of funding for geopolitical instability, doesn't an alternative for oil make good policy sense?
And finally, alternative energy technologies are exportable and a potential source of millions of domestic jobs, both skilled and unskilled. Why not make the investment?
Sure, climate change might turn out to be a myth. The Cubs might win the World Series. So what's your point, George? Maybe you've got 127 payments left on your H2. If so, from one Cubs fan to another, you've got my sympathy.
March 1, 2009 1:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
A perfect example of the mind set of the priests of the global warming church. Agree with us or you are an idiot. No facts to prove our case, just a demand to accept it or else. No thanks. You are the idiot if you think this is how science works. I have looked at lots of sources and have yet to see any proof of AGW. Most studies supporting this pseudo science are from grad students or those paid directly by the pro-warming cabal. Hansen has been predicting disasters for decades, only to be proven wrong continually. Most of the so called facts of AGW are simply wrong, like the claim CO2 is resident in the atmosphere for centuries, despite dozens of studies proving otherwise. So peddle your snake oil to some other sucker.
March 1, 2009 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, what, did you decide my point needed an example and decide to provide it? Well, thanks. Not talking to you anymore because you're not merely an idiot, you're an idiot in a tinfoil hat. However, I do appreciate your creating the opportunity for me to make a point to everyone else.
The the resemblence between wingnut science and Lysenkoism never fails to amaze me.
Like this guy, their political ideology is so all-consuming that they actually think it provides answers to scientific questions. Accordingly, they start with the answer that their ideology dictates, then work backwards to assemble "science" that supports the politically correct outcome. When someone does science in the other direction, drawing tentative and conditional conclusions from observed facts rather than starting with an immutable conclusion and then inventing "facts," they do one of two things. If they have the power, they suppress the offending work. If they don't have the power, they try to ignore it. In either case, they attack the scientist personally and, with no apparent sense of irony, accuse him or her of manufacturing results to satisfy a politial agenda.
The only real difference I see between wingnuts and Stalinists is that the wingnuts were tossed out of power before they had time to build GULAGs and assemble firing squads for people who publish inconvenient truths.
March 1, 2009 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like you are referring to yourself and the AGW nuts. You believe in AGW, so you look for data to prove it, while ignoring all data that does not support your belief. You don't have to believe me or talk to me, I don't care, but I am not going to let your ridiculous claims go unchallenged. Interesting you provide no actual proof to support your beliefs, just an attack on others. Typical.
March 1, 2009 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
How ironic that in the AGW 'debate', the people with the 'The End is Near' placards screaming that the sky is falling are the 'scientists', while those that ask for some proof of this impending disaster are 'deniers'. The Deniers is a very interesting book, which documents many of the scientists and studies that refute AGW, maybe you should read it if you can.
March 1, 2009 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Bulldog, you seem like the kind of dog who would like to join me in my gravity debate (above^). Don'tcha think that whole "gravity thing" is just a plot to make people actually PAY for riding in airplanes?
March 1, 2009 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
And this mindless rejection of the obvious truth of alchemy is clearly just a plot to keep Republicans from making their own gold out of base metals. (Because gold has intrinsic value, you know.)
March 1, 2009 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bulldog, if you want to make scientific claims then maybe you ought to act like a scientist, and cite some references. Specifically, I'd like to see citations for
Until you can show the evidence for this claim and the others you make like
you have little credibility. (For example, aren't temperature results for the last hundred years facts?) When you buck the overwhelming majority of climate scientists, then the burden is on you.
Try this little thought experiment: suppose global warming is real, but the solution to it involves giving trillions of dollars in grants to energy companies and southern states. Do you think there would be as many deniers in the politically conservative community as there are now? The scientific debate about global warming has been hijacked by those who politically oppose doing something about it because it runs against their Business Is Really God philosophy.
March 1, 2009 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Temperature results are indeed facts. Do they show clear evidence of a trend? Is 100 years long enough to prove a trend? From the temp data I have seen, only ground measurements show any increase, which is explainable by the urban heat island effect. Why is Mars so damn cold, with an atmosphere nearly 100% CO2? Why does the IPCC 'estimate' that CO2 is resident for 200 years, when numerous studies prove it is less than 10 years? Why is a tax the answer? If it's so urgent, shouldn't you be demanding a complete shutdown of all power plants, cars, and planes? Try reading some research not from Gore, as I suggested to others, read "the Deniers" By Solomon.
March 1, 2009 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is Mars so cold despite its atmosphere? If you think about it, its easy to explain. It is much further from the sun than is earth and obviously doesn't get as much energy input. If you're looking for some real greenhouse effect, the atmosphere of Venus is nearly all CO2 and it is HOT (>400 C). Of course it is much closer to the sun.
March 1, 2009 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly! In truth, Venutian atmosphere is mostly methane and sulphuric acid, but it is hot. Martian atmosphere is also a total greenhouse gas atmosphere, but it is very cold. Hansen used Venus to explain his run away global warming theory, but conveniently ignored Mars. If his theory was correct, they both would be very hot.
March 1, 2009 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Atmosphere of Venus:
Surface pressure 9.3 MPa
Composition ~96.5% Carbon dioxide
~3.5% Nitrogen
0.015% Sulfur dioxide
0.007% Argon
0.002% Water vapor
0.001 7% Carbon monoxide
0.001 2% Helium
0.000 7% Neon
trace Carbonyl sulfide
trace Hydrogen chloride
trace Hydrogen fluoride
See, this is a big part of what makes you, and the other global warming deniers, idiots. You don't just get to make up your own goddamned facts. No, methane, trace amounts of sulfer dioxide, 96% CO2.
Oh, why is Mars so cold? a) its atmosphere is so thin that on Earth we would call it a good laboratory vacuum and b) its further from the sun than us. The wonder isn't how cold it is. The wonder is how warm it is. And that would be because what atmoshphere it has is C02.
March 1, 2009 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gee, I thought you didn't want to talk to me! How nice to hear from you, and to see that you can use wikipedia. I was in error, I had been thinking about the clouds on Venus being sulphuric acid, I was reading some of Hansen's stuff.
March 1, 2009 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
What if I told you that I have a way where the idiots (oops...I mean people) don't have to "believe" anything, but can still decide with certainty what to do about it?
Check this out and pass it along to all of the idiots you cited.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mF_anaVcCXg
March 1, 2009 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
"f you do not agree with me that combustion is the result of rapid oxidation and, instead, believe that burning is the result of the release of a mysterious "fifth element" called "phlogiston," you are an idiot. No debate. Ditto evolution. Ditto the theory that the speed of light is constant."
Doesn't drive you nuts? You ever start a conversation with somebody and then you discover they are from a parallel universe and you wished you had known that prior to speaking with them?
Will is experiencing a breakdown of some sort. He has seen everything he holds near and dear to him evaporate. He was screaming and yelling (in his head obviously because people with bow ties do not normally do these things out loud) about w
from the beginning. It was like nobody would listen to him.
Now his party is down the pooper, so to speak, and I think he experiencing angst and this brings him to some real congnitive dissonance. To me it is hilarious. I have noted that if people were dying of hunger outside his office, he would look down and immediately begin to recite some Federalist Paper.
March 1, 2009 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you about Will.
I agree with most of what you have to say regarding scientific evidence--"if you don't believe x causes y, which 95% of the scientific community has proven, and instead you believe pigs singing the national anthem causes y, then you're a complete idiot.
And in too many cases where political ideology replaces rational thought, this holds true.
But I wouldn't want people to get the idea that we humans know what we know and therefore, it cannot be any other way.
You seem to know a bit about science and with that knowledge comes humility.
March 1, 2009 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh Gary, I am the lowliest of the low. But I had a good education and I like to read and now write.
I do not know the answer to this banking crisis.
But I do know that the earth is not 6,000 or 8,000 years old. And stars were not thrown into the heavens from earth.
I do hope that my mind is clear enough, at least sometimes to hear a different tune, or a different take.
George Will is nuts.
March 1, 2009 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes, your mind is clear enough.
My only point is not to create a false continuum--the party that knows nothing and lies to obscure truth on one end, and the party that knows everything and never distorts truth at the other.
An inflexible mind on either end is dangerous.
March 1, 2009 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your cosmology is correct, but it would be even more accurate to say that the world is actually an imperfect ellipsoid, and it travels in a straight line on space curved by the sun's mass, a path which from our Euclidean perspective, is elliptical.
There is always room for debate and elaboration. Of course, that is not what George Will does. He is all out lying or distorting a la Lysenko, which is what the right frequently does, as you astutely point out. Our problem is that we on the left oversimplify as Malthus did, and on the global warming debate, it is all about making predictions on chaotic systems.
The evidence pointing toward warming is powerful, but please, should someone show up with intelligent arguments and valid data pointing in the opposite direction, let us not dismiss her with name-calling and bullying. That would make idiots of us, whether we are scientists or laypersons.
There are debates going on on many subjects which mainstream science considers resolved, and no, I do not mean disputing germ theory. However, very intelligent and reputable scientists question the causative role of cholesterol in heart disease, the big bang theory, the reliability of HIV testing, and myriads of other textbook "truths."
Our scientific culture leaves much to be desired. Anyone who's been in graduate school has encountered primadonnas, worse than George Will himself, with inflated egos who would and do stamp any dissent like a cockroach when it dares show its face, whether or not there is any truth. The brightest fear losing their grants for their lab work. The stupidest gain bureaucratic power. Female scientists confront sexism. The most corrupt guide the research along government supported corporate interests. The doctors join in on the bonanza. The air is fetid in our scientific community, and it is oftentimes the layperson who gets to play the scientific dirty fucking hippie because the scientist would ruin her carreer were she to speak up.
So I applaud your calling out George Will for being the hack that he is. However, nothing is ever resolved in science except in the textbook.
March 1, 2009 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great comment, Ad.
Interested in running a Science Faculty (or two?) ;-)
March 1, 2009 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
We need only look at qui bono? The scientists do get some mileage out of dire threats, thus funding grants. But patents are an equally attractive goal for funding, so that's a wash. Mainly, it matters not to the scientists' livelihood whether industrial CO2 is warming us. But it matters terribly to the owners of businesses, most of which depend on unrestrained consumption.
So when quibbles come from the business-allied right wing we can immediately discount them, and accept the overwhelming consensus of peer-reviewed science. There is no conspiracy to ruin the business world with chicken-little warnings, it's just the facts, guys. Get over it and grow up.
March 1, 2009 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Steve. :)
March 1, 2009 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem is not that those who deny anthropogenic climate change are all idiots. Some are merely ignorant of the topic, while others are more generally deficient in reading comprehension due to poor education; a few show signs of psychotic delusional conditions.
While it isn't usually worth the trouble of making such exacting distinctions only in one's own mind, it's worthwhile if you intend persuasive public discourse.
March 1, 2009 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
You said that one is an idiot if he questions the theory that the speed of light is a constant. Well, there happens to be some quality research that does question that assumption. It may very well be that the speed of light is declining and that gravity is increasing. And yes, Einstein's theories remain intact even if the speed of light is not a constant. Although, even his theory of Relativity is being reexamined - maybe it is not the last word, just as Newtonian Physics was not the final answer.
March 1, 2009 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really, what do any of us know for sure?
I'll always ask questions and let the truth decide.
March 1, 2009 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
It does not alter C as constant for all observers, the main statement of Special Relativity. This is what is meant by C being constant.
March 1, 2009 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
what is the speed of light from the perspective of light itself?
March 1, 2009 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Einstein's most famous thought experiment:
Not actually obvious how it leads to his conclusion, see :
http://www.pitt.edu/~jdnorton/Goodies/Chasing_the_light/index.html
March 1, 2009 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought that a human observer traveling at any speed, even, hypothetically, the speed of light, is still limited to human perspective. One perspective maybe standing still, another traveling, regardless, humans process the concept of light by projecting in space time dimensions. If you're traveling at x speed, you're covering x distance.
Light's perspective. What is it?
March 2, 2009 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why would light have a perspective? Who is "light"? A photon, a bunch of them? If it's a photon, it's paradoxical to think of perspective without a perceiver.
Here's a paradox: if Lorentz-Fitzgerald contraction reaches 100% at C, would signals be possible in that direction? Would life be possible at C? The contraction is not "felt" by masses at less-than-C, since signals are facing the same compression, but if it were total from an outside POV, is it still existent from "inside"?
We are theoretically "moving" faster than C in respect to distant galaxies, but this is explained by invoking expansion of space, not velocity through a space with mass. It is moot, since no mass can reach C without infinite acceleration. Only massless entities, like photons, can travel at C. They can be slowed, but
automatically regain C once let loose from laser traps.
Those of us, like myself, who only read about physics, but don't practice it, have to stand back and let the mathematically adept have the field, when it comes to relativistic calculations. Even Maxwell is headache-inducing at first, I hear.
March 2, 2009 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who is "light"?
I don't think you realize how profound a scientific inquiry that is.
I'm not smart enough to understand the relationship between physics and quantum physics to talk with any authority on the matter.
But this was an interesting lecture series.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCLK2WwxIQU
March 2, 2009 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
And, you said that the layman cannot "debate" the truths of Science. Only the scientists are allowed in that debate? Nonesense. The layman can read both sides and decide who to believe.
Don't take my post wrong. I am not making any point about the truth or falsity of the global warming. I just think your profanity laden diatribe is rediculous.
Don't tell me what I have to believe. And, don't use language when you are sitting annonymously behind a computer that you wouldn't use to ones face.
March 1, 2009 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, I've examined the evidence and listened to the experts and, in my lay opinion, the answer to the credit crisis is to abolish money and go back to the barter system across the world. I think we should have a debate about that.
March 1, 2009 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink