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The Inexplicable and Inexcusable


I'm trying to maintain an even keel about the stimulus bill.  I'm trying to do that notwithstanding this hair-raising graphic from Rep. Pelosi's office and acompanying note from Swampland.  Based upon what I'm hearing from Reid, Pelosi and Obama, I'm more than half convinced that ultimately the Nelson-Collins foolishness is not going to make it into the final bill and that the MSM (and blogger) fixation upon that process is misguided. 

Nonetheless, could somebody please explain to me why the guy who is apparently the stupidest goddamn person in the entire Senate Democratic Causus is now apparently more important than the President and the rest of Congress combined? 

It's like Nelson sat down and said "hoooo-weeee!  This here stim-a-lus bill is just too big!  If it gets too big it might actually work!  Reckon I better sit down with my staff and cut out all the parts that are most stimulative!" 

I mean, jesus screaming christ in a threee piece suit, "I think it will be below 800 [billion]. For me it's not symbolism, it's an economic matter. At some point it's just too big." Are you fucking kidding me?  So he wants to cut  food stamps, state revenue stabilization, NASA, Eduction,  school improvements and hiring more cops???  Did this buffoon actually ask his staff to identify the parts that were most likely to create jobs or reduce further deterioration and say "yeah, that's there's what we need to cut." 

I'd honestly prefer no bill to one with these cuts.  If these cuts stand, all we are doing is spending a huge amount of money for no result--which is, of course, exactly the failure the Republicans are trying to engineer and there's Dumbass Ben, obligingly helping them along.  It boggles the mind and beggars the imagination.   

Is it really possible for any Democractic senator to be so utterly, abysmally ignorant of even the most elementary tenants of macroeconomics?  And if it is possible, how is it that that guy, the one who's apparently the stupidest goddamn Democrat in the Senate, gets to basically rewrite the bill singlehandedly? 

For Christ's sake people, call your Senator and tell them to say no to this madness, especially if your Senator is one of these idiots, call them and tell them to stop. 

 

 


31 Comments

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Agree! and Rec'd

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Will somebody tell me what msm is. I mean, is it a new drug. Is it Massive Spending Measure?

At any rate I decided which side to take on the bill after listening closely to republicans. They have in fact convinced me that this is going to be one of the most effective and important measures to come down the pike since they gave the vote to women.

The more the republicans rant and rave, the better I think it is going to be.

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Main Stream Media - as opposed to the web.

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Think you are really smart there TheraP.

God I am behind the times. Thank you.

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Not smart, dd. I was just on the web a bit sooner than thou.

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I suggest we all inform our representatives that we did not vote for Ben Nelson.

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See, even we can agree on something. That is an outstanding idea.

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So $800 billion is Nelson's magic number. That must mean $801 is too much, and $799 just right. Which one of the three bears does that make Gentle Ben?

I wasn't aware that the Collins-Nelson faction wants to cut state budget stabilization. It's not in Sargent's post. And food stamps? This is idiocy at its most sublime.

That said, as I understand it, "elimination" applies to additional funding and not to the program itself. This isn't an appropriations bill.

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Note to Sen. Nelson: thanks trimming that fat, frying that bacon and milking all those sacred cows. And thanks for the $350 billion in tax cuts reaching 95 percent of Americans. I assume that would include me.

For what it's worth, whatever I get is going right in the bank. Or under my mattress, if the bank option no longer makes sense.

Stimulate that.

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Bullpuckey!

Rachel Maddow is on a roll. Bottom line: it's about spending, stupid.

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Ben Nelson was my senator prior to my departure from the US outback. (Omaha went for Obama though - way to go Big O.)

I have met the man several times in the past and thought him a nice guy. My judgment is not that he is stupid, but rather, that he is no more a Democrat than is Lieberman. Democrats have no representation in Nebraska. That, I am glad to say, looks like it is changing.

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I'm assuming that you're not just venting...

"If these cuts stand, all we are doing is spending a huge amount of money for no result"

Can you explain the non-linearity here? How is it that a ~10% decrease takes us from very effective to totally ineffective?

"Is it really possible for any Democractic senator to be so utterly, abysmally ignorant of even the most elementary tenants of macroeconomics?"

Try explaining the key element here. So far, the whole thing doesn't add up except as a socialistic lemon (not that I am against lemonade, mind you).

Yes, employment has fallen off a cliff. Should we try to help those folks? Sure.

Over to you...


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Way back when, the whole point was supposed to be government spending to create jobs. The logic was simple and, in my mind, unassailable: if consumers aren't spending, if business isn't spending, then government has to do it.

The litmus test was equally clear: to qualify as "stimulus," the money should create jobs or generate consumer spending ... quickly. That's the definition of stimulus. So when new money for the arts got cut, even new money for Head Start, I was able to grit my teeth and press on.

Following the same logic, cutting food stamps and gutting transportation and other infrastructure projects in favor of cutting this tax or that is stupid. By now, everyone knows about the multiplier effect.

As is only natural, the rhetoric has become overheated as this thing drags on. This isn't an appropriations measure. It's an emergency spending package. There's a lot of stuff we need. Most of it will have to wait.

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I know about the alleged multiplier effects, but I don't believe in them.

How is consumer spending going to create jobs? Business won't add employees, they will make do with what they have, until things look much better.

Why is government spending magically more stimulative than private spending? How is spending necessarily stimulative at all?

These are serious questions, not inflamed rhetoric.

The idea that if one part of the economy is contracting allows another part to expand is sensible. But government cannot expand except by destroying wealth, and arguably, more wealth.

I'm not 100% against using a crisis to change the direction of the country, but I don't want to repeat the right wing mistakes of the Chicago Boys et al on the left wing, either.

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Consumer spending burns through inventory. Until that inventory is gone, the retail, manufacturing and transportation sectors are depressed. When its gone, they all revive.

Government spending is not more or less stimulative than private spending. The point is that when private spending falls below the level necessary to achieve full employment and/or full capacity, only the government can make up the gap in GDP. One of Keynes key insights was that when private spending falls below a certain level, it can get stuck there--in effect you have a private economy that stablizes at the lower level. The Republican panecea of decreasing wages due to excess labor supply will not increase gross economic activity because the people making less have less to spend.

I have no idea what you mean when you say that government cannot expand except by destroying wealth. In a recession, government expands by borrowing from the capital markets and printing more money. The latter is okay when deflation is a risk. The former is okay because, in a declining market, the demand for capital is depressed anyway. I have not heard anyone talking about raising taxes.

Additionally, the "we'll have to raise taxes later to pay for this stuff" talk is Republican neo-classicist nonsense. If we don't get the economy going now, tax revenues will fall as it spirals downward, which will require the government to do the same thing its doing now--print money and borrow--to an even greater extent.

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The short answer is this: ">look at this chart showing how much gets put back into the economy per dollar spent on stimulus and compare it to what the idiots have cut and what they've increased.

Aggregate demand is going to come up 1.2 trillion short of full employment/capacity this year. We're now basically trying to fix that with what amounts to 400 500 billion in government spending over two years, once you factor in the low dollar spent to dollar injected into the economy ratio of he tax cuts. Most of the stuff they've increased has low ratios and what they've cut has high ratios. This is why I am railing against the stupidity. They literally did the exact opposite of what they needed to do. The sheer willful wrongheadedness of it borders on malice.

A few specific points:

a) the annual AMT fix is apparently still part of this package and part of the total. (At least, I have not heard of it coming out.) To include this 70 billion as stimulus is completely dishonest because 1) it is nothing they wouldn't have done anyway--just as they have for the last fifteen years and, 2) even without that assumption, its one of the worst tax cuts in terms of dollars spent to dollars put into the economy ratio. Its just 48

b) Excluding the AMT fix, they've increased the tax cuts to half the package. Again, tax cuts are the worst kind of stimulus. Depending on what they cut, you get a ratio of something a little over 1:1 to something much, much less.

c) The imbeciles cut 40 billion in aid to the states. This is the most critical part of the whole goddamned package. Besides being among the high ratio items, if state and local governments--all of which are constrained by constitutional or practical borrowing limits--have to start firing people, we will not get a floor under the job losses until we're in depression territory. And, p.s. and by the way, they're already firing people!

Make no mistake, people. If the House doesn't get this fixed in conference(and in a way that brings it back to the Senate under no-filibuster budget reconciliation rules) all we're doing is setting correct fiscal policy up for failure which opens the door to the Republicans to start touting their one snake oil panecea, tax cuts. Our asinine MSM will not be able to grasp, or honestly report, that the reason for the failure is that tax cuts were such a high proportion of the ratio. And our good Democratic friend, Ben Nelson will be the reason.

Ben Nelson is on the path to become to Obama what David Boren was to Clinton. I could tolorate the asshat when he kept a low profile. Now he's leap frogged Lieberman on my Zell Miller quisling list.

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Crap. Well, the link works and it acutlly looks kind of cool.

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The imbeciles cut 40 billion in aid to the states. This is the most critical part of the whole goddamned package. Besides being among the high ratio items, if state and local governments--all of which are constrained by constitutional or practical borrowing limits--have to start firing people, we will not get a floor under the job losses until we're in depression territory. And, p.s. and by the way, they're already firing people!

That plus food stamps equals one super-size helping of world class stupidity.

I think it's 1.02 to 1 on the tax cuts. Yet one of their knuckleheads took the House floor to argue that none of this would have happened if we had just made the Bush tax cuts permanent. Try wrestling that logic to the ground.

Snake oil indeed.

Thanks for clarifying.

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Hi. The link doesn't work for me.

I don't believe in "stimulus factor" -- someone please show me how they actually work and come up with the numbers. I don't see why government spending is any more productive than private spending, if spent on the same kinds of things. And government borrowing is often costly. If we can borrow at under 1%, cool. But if it's 3, 4, or 5 or more %, not cool.

I kinda lost the overall theme of your reply to my comment, sorry.

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See my reply to your comment above.

The point isn't that government spending is more or less stimulative than private spending. The point is that gross private spending is in a death spiral and only increased government spending can fill the gap between what the private economy does and full capacity.

Some things are more stimulative than others. Food stamps are very stimulative because 100% of the money gets spent on real stuff. Unemployment benefits are very stimulative because they are a fraction of the beneficiaries regular income and thus are more likely to be spent than saved or devoted to paying down debt. Rebuilding bridges is more stimulative becuase it puts people to work who would otherwise be on unemployment tothe extent that raising their wages above what they would get on unemployment is less stimulative, because it gives them extra money to devote to debt service or savings, that is counteracted by the fact that, in addition to allowing workers to by groceries, the government is buying concrete and steel, employing people in those sectors, and in the transportation sectors to move it from plant (or dock) to job site.

Tax cuts are less stimulative because they mostly go to people who already have jobs, whose incomes have not taken a hit, but who are scared by the turmoil and thus more likely to increase savings and/or pay down debt.

Increased savings increases availible investment capital, which is moderately stimulative, but debt payment does not really increase abailible capital in times of economic distress because all it does is reduce the sea of red ink on the lender's books due to uncollectable debts.

Additionally, availiblility of capital due to increased savings does not in and and of itself increase private investment in a down cycle. If you're in retail with a lot of unused inventory, you have no need to borrow to buy more. If you are in the manufacturing sector, you are not going to borrow to build a new plant or finance new production when you are yourself sitting on unsold inventory and, in any case, are not getting any orders due to your customers' unsold inventory. In any business, few are going to borrow to expand until they see a bottom and can predict when demand will go back up.

What increased savings due to tax cuts in a down cycle can do is marginally decrease the rate the government has to pay to borrow, but that's not immediately stimulative.

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Well, I don't like the cuts much either, but I'm with Sen.Reid on this. Anyway, this just get the bill past the Senate. It's still got to go to committee before final passage. Be interesting to see what happens there.

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NCSteve, now that the hyperventilating has subsided somewhat after looking at the graph, I don't think the items that were cut are gone for good.

They might not end up in the final stimulus bill. Rather, they will be funded through other means (with apologies to bluebell for my optimism). They're doing what's necessary to get it passed.

Nonetheless, my senators and representatives, the heartless swine that some of them are, are hearing from me loud and clear.

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Two loud and clear thumbs up, CindyMax!

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I'm not railing against the cuts per se as much as against the fact that its a Democrat firing the torpedos. Assuming you're right--and I hope you are--Nelson has basically increased the amount of time, energy, and political capital Obama has to spend to get it sone and, as Krugman noted today, for no other reason than that he decided he needed to cut 100 billion to show everyone how big the "moderates" dicks are.

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I see your point. It's political gamesmanship at a critical time to no worthy end. Nelson needs to stuff his ego.

My dad, who has an M.A. in economics, recently said indicators are pointing to a depression. I was looking around the web to find numbers to back it up. While doing so I found there are more than a few people, professors included, who think the economic crisis is something contrived merely as a way to give away taxpayer money and promote liberal programs. Tell that to those who've been laid off. I suppose they are merely contrived people.

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Cute. Liberals caused the fake crisis to achieve liberal ends while Paulson and Bush were nominally in charge.

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That sure is shallow of you.

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Here's hoping that graph starts getting major attention from MSM. Senators don't seem to get it.

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"Help us Nancy Wan Pelosi. You're our only hope!"

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I don't know why I'm laughing so hard when it's true.

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I understand and relate to your frustration. The transition from Bush tyranny to representative government is ugly and difficult. The MSM and GOP are prepared to continue the Reagan revolution of lies, intimidation, and maintaining the illusion that we are a cowed and rightward nation. The transition might be easier but for a few things. The first being the international financial crisis. The second being the almost complete domination of our popular media by the military industrial complex. These two factors make represntative government a challenge.

There is no easy answer. Every elected official has special interests and regional interests along with their own ethos to bring to the conversation. The fact that a stimulus bill is even being considered is a huge step forward. But I am disappointed that the final bill might not be enough.

The idea I carry with me is that it is better to have an argument and compromise (even if it hurts) instead of the empire we have been living under for the last eight years. I don't want Dems to steamroll the opposition necause I want the kind of Republic where even the smallest Paultard or PUMA has a voice and impact on the function of government.

De Tocqueville predicted that Jacksonian democracy would descend into a utilitarian black hole where the masses' greed for having their needs met and the aristocracy's manipulation of those needs would bring disaster. Perpetual war, bread, circuses, and violence on a scale that would make Rome blush. His solution was a perpetuation of the same tired elite rule, which is a difference in matters of degree only.

That being said, the odds are stacked against us. Finance has skimmed our retirements to pay for the most costly scam in world history... The margin loan to end all margin loans. Our GDP has been inflated by military expenses from the Iraqi occupation. Right wing media is a wholly owned subsidiary of the oil/gas junta. We are in debt up to our eyeballs and one currency evaluation away from Weimar inflation or depression deflation. And to top it off, all those banker assholes want is more tax cuts. It is as if they WANT the world to collapse.

So, what do we do? In my opinion, we should ask Hamlet... He had a monologue that deals precisely with our predicament.

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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

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