Of Poker, Railbirds and Outrage Over Tax Cuts
FWIW, a few metaphorical observations about politics and Obama-watching from the world of poker.
There are poker players who think a game consists of a series of hands, each played as if it were the whole game in and of itself, without reference to what came before or what might happen after. In the poker world, such players are known as "fish."
And then there are poker players who play the long game. Players who ask themselves at each fall of the cards, "what' has happened before and how can I use that now and in the future." These are the players who will bluff a hand fully intending to get caught so the other players will be more likely to call them on a strong hand later (and, of course, there's always the chance you'll pull it off). These are the guys who who take what's happened before--even instances in which they made bad decisions and got burned--into account in evaluating how the other players perceive them and who make each new decision with an eye on how the outcome--whatever it may be--can be used later.
Fish call such players "lucky bastards." Those who aren't losing money to them call them "pros."
All of us people out here in the blogosphere and and the commentosphere are "railbirds," live spectators who don't actually know what cards any of the players are holding. We're used to watching complete dumbasses play--people like Bush and Cheney and Rover any number of other Republicans who think they're brilliant and devious players but who, in fact, are so one-dimensional and predictable that they might as well be playing with their cards face-up. It made sense to get pissed off in advance of anything they actually did, because their motives, their actions and their intentions were an open book. They were and still are fish. The only way they won was by playing even bigger fish.
However, it is clear (to me at least) that Obama plays the game like a pro. He has lost a few hands here and there, but he's the one who keeps ending up with all the chips at the end of the night. Just lucky? Yeah, that's what all the fish say.
Having concluded that, I've further been compelled to conclude that it's dumb to get my hissy on over any action he takes, or says he may take, because there's too good a chance I'll end up feeling foolish later (if I have any retrospective self-honesty, that is).
Assuming these reports about tax cuts are accurate--which is always a valid question before someone goes on the record with it--he could be screwing up six ways from Sunday, or he could be playing a game well beyond the comprehension of us railbirds and we won't know until the game--not this one hand, the whole game--is over. This is going to be maddening to us railbirds, trained as we are, in a school where fish like George W. Bush and Denny Hastert were presented as sharks. However, the truth is that Obama's game is so deep that it's only possible to perceive his real mistakes well after he's made them, by which time, they'll be too old to be outrage-worthy. Sucks for those of us with an urge to comment in real-time, but we might as well get used to it.





This sounds like a preemptive "I told you so!"
;^}
January 5, 2009 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, sorry... "preemptive" might not be the right word. More like a super confident early-bird "I told you so!"
January 5, 2009 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perish the thought. Merely a frank admission that I lack the skills to tell when he's doing something brilliant and when he's screwing up by the numbers.
That said, the beauty of poker it that even when you screw up, you can often turn it to your advantage if you keep control of your emotions and your eyes open for opportunity. Or that's the theory. Me, I always get mad at myself and tilt off what's left of my chips.
January 5, 2009 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The only way they won was by playing even bigger fish". I would add that they won by dealing from the bottom of the deck at least some of the time.
January 5, 2009 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you let the other guy win by cheating, doesn't that make you the worst kind of fish?
January 5, 2009 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I concede the point.
January 5, 2009 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK... So he called your bluff, you let him take the pot, and now.... you're gonna come back & hammer Steve, right?
Either that, or your buddy in the trenchcoat's carrying.
January 5, 2009 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Miguel with pokerface refuses to acknowledge Quinn's query.
January 5, 2009 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great one. Be careful though, I hear Dick (ssshhh, he's right down there) is looking for a new avatar. LOL.
January 5, 2009 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am taking your wispy thoughts as a compliment to our new President. I think he is a shrewd card player and a more than competent chess player.
Yes, I think we are all going to be surprised.
I never hated Hilary. But I was amazed at what Obama did to take it all away from her. While she was going for some big prizes in primary states, Obama was working in the caucus states. That was when he won 11 in a row. It was all over after that.
How can you get republicans to sign on to a package? Throw in some tax breaks.
We shall see.
January 5, 2009 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just going to come out and say it. Do we really want to play poker with our country right now?
January 5, 2009 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm..... yes? That or Roulette a la Russkie.
Kidding.
January 5, 2009 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Poker is a game of skill, luck and happenstance....just like life.
January 6, 2009 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
And NC Steve, you can tilt your chips off to me anytime! :-)
January 6, 2009 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice post. Rec'd. As Dickday points out, Obama is known as an avid poker player, and also plays chess. You combine the skills from both those games and you've got a lot. Also, I think DD is right about the cuts serving the purpose of getting the necessary republican votes to push it through the Senate.
January 5, 2009 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is a politician all right. The question is whether he is anything more. I agree he's playing his own card game but whether or not that is any benefit to me or the country is still an open question.
I am extremely sceptical of the various threads that all have the premise that Obama is smarter than us dumb rubes, all we need to do is trust him and everything will turn out swell. That's exactly the bunk that Rove sold to the Republican rubes.
January 5, 2009 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, but you just violated the Bush-Cheney amendment to Godwin's Law. (Whoever attacks an argument by saying "Rove/Bush/Cheney did x" loses.)
January 5, 2009 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Sorry, but you just violated the Bush-Cheney amendment to Godwin's Law."
Fail. bluebell called your bluff, and you turned up a ten high.
January 5, 2009 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love the premise and execution of this post I think it's pretty much spot on.
One thought: those of us commenting real time might be an important part of his game. By that I mean, sometimes he might actually be building serious capital in the middle if the left is as colorful and expressive as they are often wont to be. And other times he might need the party at his back to do something really difficult. And sometimes he might just be dead wrong and need a reality check. We'll never know for sure what's in his mind, so IMO the best we can do to help is keep it real.
BTW: I think following through with the taxation strategy he laid out during the election is the correct thing for him to do. If I remember correctly he promised tax cuts for middle class Americans below $150-250K/yr.
January 5, 2009 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
O my gosh, silence is the best policy. That's all America has on their new president. Silence on his school years, school friends, school papers and grades. I once was told that any honest man would put on paper any proposal, and if he wouldn't, run from him. Go out, hire you a roofer, tell him you don't need a written estimate, why because he's black, for change, and really talks good....go ahead and do it......you might get lucky and get a fair deal.....after all he comes from a state with untouchable reputations
January 12, 2009 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink