Bush and theRepublicans Caused the Recsession not Obama
The Republcans are already starting to blame President Obama and Congressional Democrats for ruining the economy and failing to create jobs with their stimulus package not one Republican voted for. In short, since losing the congress
and the presidency Republicans have staked their political fate on the economic failure of America. For them, as far as they have calculated, any sign that the economy might be inching up toward a marked improvement, then, a political disaster for them could ensue. They lost the presidency just 7 months ago, and the Congress two years, but they already want their power back. They are talking down the economy through their effective Talk Radio Crackheads. Democrats will have to fight back. Republican distortions are gaining traction, eventhough the economy has been in shambles since their reign.
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Republicans know that Americans are fans of the "Short Attention Span' theater. They have also learned well from Joseph Goebbels: Tell a big lie often enough and most people will believe it.
The Democrats need to start emphasizing that the Republican obstruction is causing a slower recovery. Recovery is often based on the peoples' expectation that a recovery will take place. In the absence of that expectation there will be no recovery. That is what the Regressives (Conservative/Republicans) are trying to working towards.
July 7, 2009 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Last time I checked, the Democrats have a majority of both houses and they run the White House. So I don't think they can really "obstruct" anything.
No one is blaming Obama for causing the recession, and if they were it wouldn't be fair. Who "caused" the credit crisis and ensuing recession is a long list - but it's much more complicated than just blaming Bush.
But it is fair to criticize the stimulus plan such that it takes way to long for most of that money to get into the economy. An alternative like a payroll tax holiday would have a much more immediate effect of getting money into the hands of consumers. That plus more infrastructure might have helped with unemployment. But instead we just continue to watch unemployment tick higher.
It is also a fair criticism to say that Obama's budget is not "pay-as-you-go" and neither is the current drafts of healthcare legislation which will just continue to add more to our debt. All the data is on www.cbo.gov for you to review. Obama's budget alone causes us to run an average annual deficit of close to $1 trillion every year through 2019.
Maybe if Obama would just be honest that he is going to raise taxes ALOT on EVERYBODY, then at least I wouldn't have such a problem with his spin. You cannot run the type of government that Obama is proposing by collecting only 18% of GDP in taxes, which has been the norm for the last 40 years. You also can't increase the tax receipts to 25% of GDP (which is what Obama plans to be spending by 2019) simply by making the "rich" pay more. Rather than be honest with the American people now, the Administration is putting the spending pieces in place now and counting on the tax piece to fall into place later.
July 8, 2009 6:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
An alternative like a payroll tax holiday would have a much more immediate effect of getting money into the hands of consumers.
Sure, but the Social Security and Medicare funds would have to come from someplace, most likely debt.
6 of 1, half dozen of the other.
And the CBO documents found at the site you linked to suggest that getting that money into consumers' hands would not have had as much effect as advertised, based on analyses of 2001 and 2008 tax rebates.
Insofar as obstruction is concerned - a simple majority doesn't mean that it votes as a bloc, and we have a great deal of evidence that it does, in fact, not. When the minority does vote as a bloc, they can obstruct or divert legislation.
I'm curious as to your reasoning why it's not possible to increase tax receipts to 25% simply by making the rich pay more.
Given that the effective tax rate on the "rich" is 1/3 of what it was during the biggest expansion of the middle class in human history, I think you'll have a tough time making that case.
Unless you're arguing the political rather than mathematical difficulty ...
July 8, 2009 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
See my reply.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thabo_mda/2009/07/bush-and-therepublicans-caused.php#comment-3521712
July 8, 2009 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't speak for you, but I haven't seen a penny of the stimulus money. If there was a payroll tax holiday, I would. And if we said that the holiday would last until the economy started to grow again, people wouldn't view it as "one-time" in nature as the rebate checks were. The Federal payroll taxes the government deducts from our pay beginning with the first dollar we earn, gives the government 15% of our paychecks, which is $20 billion per week. Put that in the consumers hand paycheck after paycheck and the economy would rebound pretty quickly.
Obama thinks that we must first fix the banks and once the banks are fixed the consumers will get credit again and start to spend. Wrong. We need to fix this bottoms up, not top down.
As far as taxing the rich, it's mathematically difficult. I can't speak to the political side. I am using the 2006 IRS data, which is the most recent available, and it shows how Obama's math doesn't work.
Obama said he wouldn't raise your taxes if you make under $250,000. Unfortunately, the IRS data only breaks it out for people making below $200,000 and those making more than $200,000. But the data still proves my point.
In 2006, people with taxable income of $200,000 or more paid $544bn in taxes based on total taxable income of $2.15 trillion. So if we DOUBLED everyone's tax rate who makes over $200,000, the IRS would take in an extra $544bn. That wouldn't cover the CBO's $1 trillion annual deficit. We could raise the tax rate to 100% for everyone making over $200,000 and then we'd rake in an extra $1.6 trillion per year. But I don't think it's practical to raise people's tax rate to 100%. It's more just a hypothetical illustration of what it would take.
If you look at people making over $500,000 per year in taxable income, we could raise all of their tax rates to 100% and take in an extra $1 trillion per year of revenue to help reduce our $1 trillion of annual deficits the CBO is projecting. If you DOUBLED everyone's tax rate who makes over $500,000, you'd only raise an extra $700bn per year.
And remember, the CBO's current projections of $1 trillion average deficits for the next 10 years don't include any healthcare legislation that is yet to be passed and will undoubtedly increase the annual deficit numbers.
Also - it's safe to assume that tax receipts in 2009 and 2010 at a minimum will be much lower than the bull market 2006 numbers I used above.
So you see, the math is pretty simple - the "rich" just don't have enough taxable income where tax increases on them would make a dent in Obama's spending plan. What he said on the campaign trail was increasing taxes on the wealthiest 2%, and the increases he talked about never were in the range of doubling their average rate.
So there's another $3+ billion of taxable income coming from people making under $200,000 per year that has to be taxed more in order for the deficit to get under control.
July 8, 2009 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
In regard to the stimulus investment, my understanding is as follows:
1. The current surging fuel cost is overwhelming the market rally.
And the pending clean energy bill might serve as a second stimulus package world-wide boosting private investments.
2. People are so worried about losing their job, coverage, denial of treatment, which seems to increase bank deposit latetly. That means stimulus funding mainly goes toward bank deposit for a rainy day increasing jobless rate. It proves again that a healthy society yields better productivity, prosperity.
It is time to 'Change' the notion of the public health as a fundamental human right and install 'a safety system for all' like all of the other industrialized nations, I think.
3. The stimulus funding begins to mobilize just 11%, meanwhile, the auto industry has moved to its restructuring with the massive job-related impact.
4. The pandemic swine flu has been hurting the global economy seriously.
Thank You !
July 9, 2009 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink