Joe the Plumber is, it seems, a registered Republican. (Hat tip to Ben Smith of Politico, who got the item from the Toledo Blade.) Moreover, according to the logical Jed L at Daily Kos, he wasn't undecided either:

Speaking with Katie Couric, "Joe" said that he "wasn't swayed" by the debate last night, yet pretty much knew who he was going to vote for. So if (a) he wasn't swayed by the debate and (b) knows who he is going to vote for, then (c) he had already made up his mind before the debate.

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If almost all the postgame pundits thought McCain had a good night; but the snap polls show that overwhelming percentages thought Obama "won" (2.5:1 among undecideds according to CNN, 3:1 among all debate watchers according to CBS), "stated his ideas more clearly" (CNN: almost 3:1) "was seen as the stronger leader" (CNN: almost 1.5:1) and was "more likable" (CNN: more than 3:1), and that the candidate who launched more attacks on his opponent was McCain (CNN: 11:1)--what does the discrepancy tell you?

Either (a) the pundits had some extraordinary insight denied to ordinary benighted Americans, or (b) the pundits' snap judgments are worthless--in fact, a negative indicator.

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Like every other breathless cosmopolitan whose veins pulse with red-white-and-blue blood (the world being at stake and all), I start the day at the keyboard, trying to put a floor under my worry, hunting excitement, relief, or both, with Pollster.com and fivethirtyeight.com (just for openers), scrutinizing the state totals, then totaling them again on the assumption that each Obama figure has to be discounted by 5 points. I rummage through reports on Obama lawn signs sprouting on hitherto arid pastures and that some slow-to-decide white workers have decided that, in the words of a steelworker in old industrial Beaver Falls, PA, "It's Time to Give the Black Guy a Chance."

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