Todays National Intelligence Estimate depicts the Iraqi government of Nouri al Maliki as in deep trouble, unlikely to overcome crippling sectarian differences and unlikely to meet US mandated benchmarks for political reform and progress. This, even as many top-level US officials including Democrat Senator Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and many Bush administration officials, report the surge is yielding positive results in many places around Baghdad and elsewhere and deserves to be extended.
Let us consider these two assessments, the first political, and the second military, separately before we presume to make a policy determination regarding what to do in Iraq.
We begin with the military assessment, since it is commonly stated that the purpose of the surge is to create calm for Iraq so that it can proceed with political resolutions to its ongoing problems. First of all, a report of some moderate progress is perhaps heartening for many Americans, particularly for President Bush, whose entire legacy rests on something positive coming out of his misadventure in Iraq. Also, for those eager to show that they support the troops, its nice to have something to say that acknowledges the positive outcomes for all the hard work and sacrifice our soldiers have made. Certainly, no matter how true it might be, saying that the surge or any other aspect of our military exercises in Iraq is failing will be loudly protested in the US as anti-troop, or treasonous if youre Karl Rove. So while modest progress may be a soothing palliative for Americans sick of this war, it does little or nothing to meet the needs or boost the hopes of Iraqis living amid the chaos in their country.
Lets be realistic. What use are signs of moderate progress against the truly disastrous situation throughout Iraq and beyond. The American invasion has so terribly stirred up the hornets nest of centuries of sectarian animosities while destroying Iraqi society, modest progress just aint going to do it. Gone are such bulwarks of social welfare as a functioning economy, military and police forces to maintain civic order, institutions of justice, health care, education, food, water, sewage, electricity. All are barely functioning, or worse, contributing to the tensions or being targeted by militants and blown to bits. What is needed is not moderate progress but a blinding stupendous miracle, something on the order of religious détente between Sunnis and Shias. Short of a miraculous turnaround, all our efforts, all our interventions and modest gains are merely postponing the gathering storm.
Of all the powerful assets the US has in its arsenal, none is more powerful than the asset Iraqi militants have in infinite supply: time. While our troops rush about the country putting out fires, calming tensions in disparate neighborhoods, our adversaries can bide their time waiting for opportunities to stir up tensions across the whole country with a single act of violence. One well-placed bomb can undo a months worth of modest progress. Ultimately, no matter what patchwork peace we can cobble together for Iraq, once weve left the country, one year or ten years from now, after the celebrations over ridding the country of the invaders, Iraqi adversaries who have been at each others throats for a thousand years or more will still have to work out their differences. Ten years is not a long time to wait.
In sum, no matter what grand military victory we might pull off in Iraq, it is unlikely to have any effect on the simmering, infinitely complex web of tensions that suffuse Iraq save to perhaps squelch them temporarily. And even if there were areas of calm, swaths of moderate progress such as we may be seeing in Fallujah these days, the police chief there reported last week how terribly fragile and vulnerable that calm is. This is a problem no application of US military force can repair, at least not in Iraq.
Thats the report of five US soldiers in the New York Times last Sunday, concluding after 15 months of operations in several military branches across several regions of Iraq that theres nothing of ultimate value that can be gained by continuing the surge or any other US military operations there. Somehow, I find the conclusions of those who are actually carrying out the surge more convincing than those of a president who categorically denies the existence of bad news, those of a Senator who spent two days looking at the very best scenarios the US military could orchestrate, or even those of the Times reporters OHanlon and Pollack who spent eight days recently as guests of DOD in Iraq before writing a cautiously optimistic op-ed about giving the surge a chance.
Which brings us to the political situation. What better measure of US military success in Iraq than progress on the political front in the Iraqi government? After all, even Commander in Iraq David Petraeus insists that there is only a political solution to Iraqs troubles, to which military operations play but a supporting role. Todays NIE showers the al Maliki government with doom and gloom, as have President Bush, Senator Levin, and others over just the past couple of days, calling into question al Malikis fitness to continue presiding. These pronouncements, while accurately portraying the political troubles faced by al Malikis government, promote fallacies fitted to the American political framework, and serve American political aims while ignoring Iraqi reality. To wit, as in America where we resolve political discontents by replacing the commander in chief every few years, Iraqs problems are entirely a function of poor leadership and could be resolved simply by replacing al Maliki with a less divisive, more effective leader.
Once again, the unspoken assumption here is that in a miraculous stroke of good fortune, some super-president will ascend to that high office and quell the unrest and bring stability to Iraq. Nothing less than a surprise appearance by the Prophet Mohammed would suffice (and even the prophet himself would have a hard time patching up Iraqs wounds). Unfortunately for everyone, were stuck with a list of less than divine candidates. And beyond that, even with a perfect president at the helm, the Iraqi government itself is nearly powerless to soothe the outrage and hopelessness that clutters the Iraqi political landscape.
Is it more than a little baffling that the first replacement candidate floated out by American conservatives is none other than Ayad Allawi, who has already once been President of Iraq but failed to bring the disparate parties together in the first go-round? What kind of miracle are we to expect from this retread?
Even more disturbing about this recent tack against al Maliki is that it is an obvious effort by President Bush to find a new way to postpone judgment and prevent serious alternatives to his stay-the-course strategy. Replacing al Maliki would require of us yet another suspension of disbelief while we allow the new guy a chance to make the difference, locking in another stay-the-course extension as we come ever closer to the end of President Bushs term.
The idea that a new president will make a decided difference in Iraqi politics is bunk. Anyone worthy of consideration has made numerous alignments and affiliations to gain and consolidate power that are sure to alienate just enough Iraqi interest groups to essentially paralyze his government, just as al Maliki and the Iraqi parliament are now.
The problem is not the president of Iraq, the problem is Iraq itself. Whatever we might wish we could do, there simply is very little the US can do, military or otherwise, to help pull Iraq out of the chaos our invasion has unleashed. It is an intractable situation, where even our most noble efforts (such as they are) are easily undone by our adversaries.
For now we are stuck with a President Bush whose main objective in the war in Iraq is to craft his policies to impress American voters (without much luck, apparently), bully his Democratic opponents into inaction (very successfully), and to insure that historians will see the American mis-adventure in Iraq as a bipartisan disaster (well see). The one group President Bushs policies have never sought to impress, the Iraqi people, is the one group that will someday determine the political future of Iraq.
To make political progress in Iraq, whats needed is not hope among the political classes in America but hope among the people in Iraq. Itd be nice to see an American strategy that actually seeks to bring hope to Iraq, not another delaying tactic, not another meaningless change in government, and not more bombs, more bullets, more fighting, more senseless death. That would itself be a miracle.
- Ted Bucklin