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There's Only One President at a Time - and It's Obama


Obama's transition has been impressive, and not just for the reasons usually cited.  He's also the first President-Elect to start running the country a month early. 

Obama has selcted his entire Cabinet and upper-level White House staff in record time, and now can go on a two-week vacation in Hawaii, leaving his new administration in charge  (Go on in, Barack, the water's fine!).  Almost all of his selections have been widely praised and none needed to be withdrawn because something came out about them.  None have caused controversy except Eric Holder, and he's only controversial because Republicans are afraid he might prosecute them (You think they care about Marc Rich? Yeah, they just hate that kind of corruption).  And there have been no leaks except the ones that were obviously on purpose. 

What all this means is not just that Obama is a good judge of people.  It means that he already has an administrative bureaucracy up and running.  He started setting up this bureaucracy way before he won the election, in fact as soon as he clinched the Democratic nomination.  Like his other far-sighted moves, this one is now paying off.  His vetting process for everyone was notably rigorous and thorough, and that seems to have prevented mistakes.  Something could still come out about someone, but it won't ne Obama's fault. 

Now economic policy is starting to flow from his economic team.  They are already working out the details of the stimulus package, so it can be presented when Congress convenes on January 6, two weeks before Obama takes office.  They are also clearly engaging in a series of planned leaks as part of this planning process.  These leaks seem designed to both assess political oppostition and build political support.   They are assessing opposition by putting out ranges of numbers and general components of the package to see how Republicans and pundits react.  So far, their plans have not provoked any threats of opposition, so they'll probably be presented roughly as they've been leaked, although further bad economic news could make the numbers bigger.  I love the way they're building support.  Several people high up in the transition are telling the media that they've been consulting with outside economists across the political spectrum, but the only names any of these people give out are those of conservatives like Martin Feldstein and Mark Zandi.  Putting out the names of conservative economists as advisors makes Republican opposition look irresponsible.  What this tells you is that the leaking is planned and coordinated.  

Meanwhile, the health care team is also working, but under less scrutiny.  Obama and Daschle know that this one will be difficult, both intellectually and politically, so they are already mobilizing supporters to give ideas and vote on them.  This way, they can see what kinds of policies have what kinds of support.  Other policy task forces are also working, while administrative task forces are combing through the Executive Branch, making detailed assessments of departments and programs so that they can get to work immediately on January 20.   

The general strategy for Obam's first term is pretty clear, and pretty smart.   Obama knows that Presidents get elected on promises and re-elected on performance, and where people most want performance is the economy.  He has a huge mandate to take action to rescue it, and he is going to use this mandate as a way to enact his other main priorities as well.   Obama is apparently going to try to fold energy, health, infrastructure, and antipoverty initiatives into his stimulus program to whatever extent is possible, and try to kill several birds with one stone. The trial balloons being floated by his people about the stimulus plan make this clear, and it's an excellent strategy. 

It's amazing.  He hasn't even taken office, and  he's running the country already.  And he's made enough progress in doing it to go on vacation.  This guy is as good as Bush is bad, and that's really saying something.  Can't wait for the Inauguration. 


41 Comments

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Well said, mate. I think it'd fairly unanimous, even bipartisan, at this point, that the sooner BHO formally assumes power, the better off we'll all be.

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Thanks, M. Obama has been careful to maintain fairly high approval ratings among Republican voters, which puts pressure on Republicans in Congress to not block his stimulus plan, which is key. Can't wait for 1/20/09.

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Good post Tom. I keep say it but w took six of his first eight months in office as vacation time!!! Think about it. It boggles the mind.

If the team he has picked cannot do it, nobody can.
I think the team is very clever as to how they have leaked. And how they have staged the appointments.

And there really have been few attacks on his nominees.

We are going to see a good, solid chess player over the next year.

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Agreed! And I feel privileged to be witnessing some competence.

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Hey, Okie! I'm curious, what are they thinking about him in your neck of the woods?

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I feel privileged, too. I've been alive long enough to see the competence and the incompetence that government flows through. I knew if I just lived a little longer, I'd see the competence return.

I just didn't know it was gonna be this good.

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Thanks, DD. I see him as a master chess player, too, one who often is playing against people who don't even know there's a chess game going on.

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Good post. The public agrees with you, one poll has 67% saying Obama will get something done.

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I've noticed that the people in my office and my family that were so dead set against Obama before the election have quickly moved beyond the rancor and are now pulling for him to do something about the economy.

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Steve, Donal, I think Obama's goal is obviously to try to forge a national consensus behind a major stimulus plan before he takes office. He's doing this with his appointments and planned leaks, and with gestures to make Republican voters feel that he's not a threat and wants to help them, too, like the Rick Warren selection. And as both of you say, it really seems to be working. Even Republicans approve of what he's been doing, and that's going to come in very handy when Congress convenes. Thanks for commenting.

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Maybe we elected a Republican.

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Maybe we elected someone that can operate outside of the confining labels this comment suggests.

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I don't think so, bluebell, although I understand the anxiety about it. He's talking climate change legislation, payroll tax holiday, re-regulation of finance, health care reform, a lot of liberal stuff. I think he's a lot like Lincoln was with slavery. Lincoln always stayed within the political consensus on the issue, which meant he wasn't as anti-slavery as the abolitionists in his public pronouncements, but he accomplished abolition just the same by always pulling the political consensus in the direction he wanted. I see Obama the same way.

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Bluebell - I just noticed you for the first time making comments on another article at TPM. Are you what is called a "troll"?

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Nah. Bluebell has been around since at least I started coming here back in January of 2008. Though he/she is certainly committed to an unwavering view of most issues that can't be moved no matter what new evidence comes to light.

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No, I just have this quaint idea that political discussion in the United States ought to include wildly radical ideas like universal health care. For example, note that Tom in his reply to me believes that health care "reform" is a liberal idea. No offense meant to Tom, but I expect we could get conservatives to agree on "reform". Like when we "reformed" welfare we "reformed" our frame of reference. We no longer need to mention poverty and all those icky poor people. Some guy on another thread is talking about a huge increase in transportation costs for the disabled. Meanwhile, Obama backs off any increase on taxation of the very wealthiest people in this country. This has become so routine that it doesn't even get noticed any more. We routinely increase fees and all kinds of taxes that hit the poorest of the poor but we run for cover if any wild eyed leftie mentions collecting a few bucks from Bill Gates. My beef is that the discussion has moved so far to the right that people are no longer aware that there is any other way to discuss issues. The Republicans are comfortable with Obama? Of course they are!!

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Except, of course, he hasn"t taken office yet and getting all the rich people riled up by playing his hand too early doesn't make much tactical sense to me.

Obama keeps his moves close to his vest and then he invariably takes a progressive position, succeeding where many other democrats have failed. That's not to say he always takes a liberal position, but he is unfailingly progressive and pragmatic and realistic in both tactics and strategy.

I know you want to storm the Bastille, but I am afraid that simply promotes revolution over evolution, a step backward as far as I am concerned.

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Also, and in order to get things done, one has to take into account that there is an opposition party. Of course, Obama could try and do what Bush and the Republicans did starting in 2000 and completely disregard the other side, because hey, they had the votes, and didn't need the Democrats. We didn't like that too much. Part of being pragmatic in two-party system is to work incrementally and inclusively. We don't want a repeat of HillaryCare.

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Well Well . . .

Wow! Did I hear the word, incrementally?

Related to the health care issue, what do you think of the use of this as a talking point?

Incremental Universalism

Holy crap-o-la Batman ... That almost sounds socialist at the worst, or at least New Age, eh? (not that there's really anything wrong with that)

Although, if I had my personal druthers it would be the Expanded and Improved Medicare for All health plan. But pragmatism rules the day.

Just thinking out loud...

~OGD~

ps: Putting on anti-label goggles and preparing for incoming...

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As defeated as I have felt the last few days, when I see posts like this it renews my hope that Obama will be able to accomplish the things we, as individuals cannot. You've managed to lift my spirits. Thank you.

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Don't let the trolls defeat you or deflate your enthusiasm! Think of them as roadsigns. How much do they influence your trip? How much do they detract from the landscape?

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Thanks, Thera, I'm trying. I took a day or two off and that helped. Trying to get inflexible people to think logically can wear a person down! I'm just very frustrated at how hard it is going to be to get the dialog moving and progress made. Not to mention that it's beginning to sound like the right and the left are working together to make sure no progress is made...makes me want to spit!

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Stilli its not gonna be that bad. Here the left fights the left. The right in media is posturing and getting their talking points together. They have no power.

I am going nuts with middleclass. it is not worth it.

you cannot win an argument with Pat Buchanan. He will tell you the the Civil War had nothing to do with slavery.

w thinks hes done a heck of a job

and Lou Dobbs hates everybody except his employer and publisher.
Your one of my best friends here. When you write I understand it.

It is hard for me to understand others.

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Thanks, Arthur, I'm ok. Defeated was probably too strong of a word, I think...disheartened is probably more accurate.

Thanks for caring, and I won't give up, I promise.

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Glad I could help, Stilli. I believe Obama is thinking ahead to the end game for his legislation, which is the overriding a filibuster in the Senate if necessary. I figure he's reaching out to Republican voters to make it much harder for Republican Senators to get away with a filibuster, and I think it's working, because Republicans are voicing no real opposition to the trial ballooons he's been floating. I think that if there was no filibuster rule and the Senate was a majority-rule body, then Obama's moves might have been very different.

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Sorry, Tom...looks like I hijacked your post w/ my pity party! :-) I'm better, now!

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I thought only Todd in a skimpy school outfit could uplift your skirt, I mean spirits.

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Brat... :-)

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Still:
I've been otherwise occupied, mostly. Why are you down? May I help?

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Thanks WW...I shot you an e-mail, rather than bring it all up here. Don't feel like you need to read all the links I sent you, but if you want to catch up it will give you a taste of what's been going on the last few days! Thanks for caring!

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Well, ever since even the dunce W realized Cheney doesn't know what he's talking about there has been no one running the country. So Obama has merely stepped into the vacuum.

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Rec'd!

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It's nice to hear some optimism. The past couple weeks have been brutal around here.

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Ain't that the truth!

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Tom should get together with Barney Frank to discuss how many presidents there are. That final paragraph was a zinger ready for a late night TV monologue.

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"...makes Republican opposition look irresponsible."

At this point, Republican opposition IS irresponsible. They had their eight years and loused up everything they touched. Time for them either to support the new president or STFU.

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I don't know how many Presidents we have but what's the difference? Combat troops become "trainers" and "advisers". Does anything ever change? Vietnam, Iraq, Republican, Democrat, is there ever anything but one big lie after another?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/washington/22combat.html?_r=1

"Even though the agreement with the Iraqi government calls for all American combat troops to be out of the cities by the end of June, military planners are now quietly acknowledging that many will stay behind as renamed “trainers” and “advisers” in what are effectively combat roles. In other words, they will still be engaged in combat, just called something else.

“Trainers sometimes do get shot at, and they do sometimes have to shoot back,” said John A. Nagl, a retired lieutenant colonel who is one of the authors of the Army’s new counterinsurgency field manual.

The issue is a difficult one for Mr. Obama, whose campaign pledge to “end the war” ignited his supporters and helped catapult him into the White House. But as Mr. Obama has begun meeting with his new military advisers — the top two, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, are holdovers from the Bush administration — it has become clear that his definition of ending the war means leaving behind many thousands of American troops.....

Either way, no one expects the American presence to end soon, clearly not Defense Secretary Gates. When asked by Charlie Rose in a PBS interview last week how big the American “residual” force would be in Iraq after 2011, Mr. Gates replied that although the mission would change, “my guess is that you’re looking at perhaps several tens of thousands of American troops.”

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No, things do not change. You can go a bit further back in time and you will realize that they hardly change at all.

War will occur. It might be very sanitary some day, but we will always be fighting over something, even if it is about who lost the remote.

Not really sure why anyone thought it would be different. Even Obama was saying this early in his run (he did have to dance when facing off against HRC).

One could imagine peace on earth, but that is as far as it will get. The physical domain will always be a drama with death and life cycles passing continuously.

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IT IS THE RIGHT OF EVERY AMERICAN TO VOTE, SPEAK OUT, AND BE HEARD....
I NOW USE MY RIGHTS TO SPEAK MY MIND.....
I THINK AMERICANS HAVE MADE A VERY BAD CHOICE FOR THE POTUS, I PERSONALLY STILL, AND WILL, CONTINUE TO THINK HE IS INELIGIBILE TO BE PRES. ACCORDING TO OUR CONSTITUTION, BUT FOR SOME REASON, KNOWN ONLY TO HIM, HE REFUSES TO SHOW THE ORIGINAL VAULTED COPY. WHY ?
ONLY SOMEONE WHO HAS SOMETHING TO HIDE, WOULD REFUSE TO DO SO...THIS IS LOGIC

NOT TO SHOW IT AND KEEP ALL WONDERING, IS NOT THE KIND OF GOOD PERSON I WILL RESPECT AS PRES., NOR AS A MAN.

IF THERE IS A REASON, OTHER THAN HE IS NOT ELIGIBLE, AMERICANS ARE FORGIVING...BUT THIS PERSON CARES NOT WHAT YOU THINK, ONLY HE MATTERS NOW....
OUR OWN SCOTUS ARE AFRAID TO CHALLENGE HIM, OR ARE ALL "PAID" OFF TO IGNORE AND LET IT PASS, WITH SOME OUTLANDISH REASONING ,NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BEING IN THE ARTICLE THEY SWORE TO UPHOLD....

THOSE JUSTICES IN THEIR 70-80'S SHOULD BE THINKING ABOUT THEIR OWN PERSONAL SELVES AS THEY ARE NEARING THE END....NOBODY HAS EVER TAKEN IT WITH THEM, AND WOULD BE WELL WORTH THE EFFORT TO STAY MORALISTIC, NEARING THE END WHERE THE HIGHEST JUDGE IN THE UNIVERSE KNOWS WHAT YOU HAVE DONE IN YOUR LIFE.....SHOULD DO WHAT YOU SWORE TO GOD TO DO AS A SCOTUS JUDGE....

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Thank you . . .

For speaking your mind.

And as Red Skelton would say to end his show...

"God Bless and Goodnight!"

Zzzzzzzzzz... Zzzzzzzzzzz... Zzzzzzzzzzz... Zzzzzzzzzzz...

~OGD~

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Tom Hollenbach

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  • Location New Jersey
  • Party Democrat
  • Politics Social liberal and economic and foreign policy centrist

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  • Favorite Blogs TPM, Paul Krugman, fivethirtyeight.com, politicalwire.com
  • Favorite Books How the Mind Works - by Steven Pinker, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order - by Samuel Huntington, The Story of Civilization - by Will and Ariel Durant
  • Favorite Quotes God gave you a brain and he meant you to use it - My Nana

Bio

I am a Clinical Psychologist in private practice. I also am writing a book that explains changes in the value systems of societies over time using insights from evolutionary psychology.

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