« The Best Fiscal Stimulus: A Large, Temporary, Negative Income Tax | Tom Hollenbach's Blog | Channeling Obama's thoughts on Gay Rights and Rick Warren »

Inequality, Instability, and Depression


There is an interesting discussion going on at tpmcafe about what ended the great depression, led by Paul Krugman.  It's great, but something seems to me to be missing from the discussion.  It's inequality.

There are clear historical correlations between income inequality and financial instability. Inequality increased during the early 20th century, peaking in the late 1920s, when we had asset bubbles that led to a crash and the Great Depression. Then, inequality was greatly reduced during the 1945-1973 period, which was financially stable. After that it started rising again, and so did instability, which became increasingly problematic after the brief stock market crash of 1987. Inequality now has again reached 1929 levels, and 1929-level financial instability is also occurring, with the financial system now in a constant state of crisis. I am very surprised that no one is talking much about a causal connection.

It also seems to me that the cause-and-effect links are pretty obvious. When inequality increases, more people experience absolute declines in their standard of living, and go into debt in attempts to maintain their consumption. Also, people at the top of the income distribution have much more money, which creates much higher demand for financial instruments and this leads to bubbles in financial assets. Ultimately, you would expect two things to happen that would reinforce each other: bubbles burst and debtors default, and then you would have a massive disappearance of wealth and a resulting crash in demand.

This is pretty much what happened with the Great Depression, and it's also a very good description of what is happening today.  This would imply that policies to reduce inequality are a long-term necessity. Am I missing something?

Inequality was reduced after the Depression by the New Deal safety net programs such as Social Security, and also by a very progressive income tax, with very high tax rates for the wealthy.  Conservatives like to claim that this kind of progressive taxation stifles growth, but the postwar period turned out to be a Golden Age economically, with strong growth and little or no financial instability. 

I truly wonder why this issue does not get more discussion.  I have searched regular Google and Scholar.Google,com for books and articles on this relationship, and find very little.  I'm not an economist, so there is probably a literature on it that I'm not familiar with, but I also have a suspicion that this topic may be ignored for political and ideological reasons, some of which may be subconscious.  If high inequality could be demonstrated to be bad for the economy as a whole, then a lot of wealthy interests would be threatened. 

If needs to be reduced, how could this be done?  Well, going back to the more progressive income tax would be an obvious answer, as would taxing capital gains in the same progressive fashion.  So would improving the safety net, with government-sponsored health care.  Stillidealistic has an excellent suggestion in this area on her current blog post "How's This for an Outside the Box Idea?"  Her proposal is to pay parents to stay home with their children, at least while they are young.  In addition to giving children more time with their parents, this would contract the labor supply and drive up wages.  It should be pointed out that this occurred after WWII when many women who had worked during the war left the labor force and had children, and the result was an economy in which a single earner made enough to support a family.   

It seems to me that all these things need to be considered, because the real problem with our economy now is quite simply that spending is too low because too many people don't have enough money.  Reducing inequality in the long term, while maintaining strong enough incentives for work, may be the big economic challenge we face.

19 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic

Yeah, there is a lot of discussion about ratios and the need for capital and blah blah blah. Now I cannot remember the name, but one of the contributrrs who actually took the time to reply to one of our comments was more in line with what you are talking about. He took the ratio blah blah blah to urge for a couple trillion dollars in governmental programs and Susan Feiner just posted there and she is echoing what Stilli is talking about.

user-pic

Its Randall Wray. He just posted again. I still cannot get over that he actually chimed in on comments.

user-pic

What you say is obvious. I agree. Now it's just a matter of convincing the Congress. I bet the Obama folks are already thinking of this.

Thanks, Tom!

user-pic

Thanks, Thera. I just read that Obama's team wants a stim plan of about $850 bn, with infrastructure jobs, tax cuts, and aid to the poor. The outside economists he consulted with that were named were mostly conservative. I'd love to know the details. But it sounds pretty good.

user-pic

Thanks, DD. I thought that if it seemed so obvious but wasn't a generally accepted idea, then it must have been shown to be wrong. From what you say, maybe not. I'll check out Wray soon.

user-pic

You raise a really interesting issue. I'm going to check out SSRN/JSTOR and see if anybody has published anything recently..

user-pic

Thanks, that would be great. I'd be really interested in what's out there.

user-pic

progress report: I have learned that America has a two tier income structure. That the lower 97% has an exponential income curve, but the top 3% has a Pareto Power curve (?). That we are not the worse country in the world in the GINI index (an income disparity metric used by the UN) but we aren't too good compared with other industrialized countries. We and Mexico are among the worst. (Aristocratic)Hands Across the Border!

Nothing on the topic though. You may have a Thesis topic there!

user-pic

.

Something of interest . . .

Hey Hey Tom . . .

Nearly 50 years ago, a famous American gave a speech that advocated spreading the wealth.

In some countries, this notable stated, “a few families are fabulously wealthy, contribute far less than they should in taxes, and are indifferent to the poverty of the great masses of the people.” “A country in this situation,” he went on, “is fraught with continual instability.”

Just who made this spread-the-wealth declaration against the dangers societies invite when they let wealth concentrate?

Read the rest at: Inequality and the Common Good November 3, 2008

That's found at the Institute for Policy Studies, the parent organization of the Working Group on Extreme Inequality.

~OGD~

user-pic

OGD, that's a wonderful quote. Ike also was the guy, of course, who warned us about the military-industrial complex. Republican used to be very different.

What's interesting to me is that this shows that was a real paradigm shift in everyone's thinking about economics from the 1920s to the 1950s, brought on, of course, by the experience of the great depression. I'm writing a book on values shifts in societies and their causes, and I'm betting that another, very similar one is one the way, and in fact, is already in progress. Thanks for the reference and the link, perhaps I'll quote that in the book.

user-pic

.

And . . .

About a "paradigm shift"?

Ike also warned.

"Now it is true that I believe this country is following a dangerous trend when it permits too great a degree of centralization of governmental functions. I oppose this--in some instances the fight is a rather desperate one. But to attain any success it is quite clear that the Federal government cannot avoid or escape responsibilities which the mass of the people firmly believe should be undertaken by it. The political processes of our country are such that if a rule of reason is not applied in this effort, we will lose everything--even to a possible and drastic change in the Constitution. This is what I mean by my constant insistence upon 'moderation' in government. Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things. Among them are H. L. Hunt (you possibly know his background), a few other Texas oil millionaires, and an occasional politician or business man from other areas. Their number is negligible and they are stupid."

From The Papers of Dwight David Eisenhower,
Volume XV - The Presidency: The Middle Way
Part VI: Crises Abroad, Party Problems at Home;
September 1954 to December 1954
Chapter 13: "A new phase of political experience"
Document #1147; November 8, 1954
To Edgar Newton Eisenhower

~OGD~

user-pic

Also from that article:

In the generation before Ronald Reagan’s 1980 election, Ike might point out, America’s top tax rate on the rich never dropped below 70 percent. The rich grumbled, but they survived.


I wonder if part of the problem is that these days the wealthy have more loophole and offshore financial options than they did 50 years ago. If loopholes in the 50's meant that folks in a 91% tax bracket actually paid about 50%, do you think it's possible that someone in a 70% bracket might find a way to move overseas to avoid paying anything? Could it be that the justification is that 18-39% is better than nothing?

I don't know much about the economics of the 50's, so I'm really just asking.

user-pic

I do not think that income inequality per se is a cause of instability. The prime cause was a stagnant or declining real income for a large percentage of the population and the attempt by the powers that be ( Rep. and Dem. ) to prop up the economy with debt. Real and perceived declines in personal standards of living can be very painful, so when offered an easy way out with easy credit, many people took it.
The nation has followed a failed trade policy, a failed energy policy, a failed immigration policy and has supported a bureaucracy that considers it's mandate the destruction of privet enterprise. Is it any surprise that the economy is in shambles?

user-pic

It may not be the cause, but it is certainly a cause. The debt thing is linked to the inequality thing.

I happen to believe (without much in the way of proof) that income inequality alone is not the problem: it becomes a problem when the inequality is self-reinforcing, i.e., there's too little income mobility to go with the income disparity.

If the guy who take home $30 mil this year could just as easily have to make do with $30k for the next five years, he's going to behave very differently than if he's assured of at least $25 mil for the rest of his working life.

user-pic

I've been saying this since i got to TPM. go back and check my comments.

user-pic

Lawrence Summers agrees with you and writes about it.

user-pic

Absoutely. I don't understand $700 billion to free up credit when people can't buy things and pay bills without jobs and we have been leaking good, quality jobs since NAFTA, and GATT put the american worker and manufacturers in direct competition with those around the world with workers working for next to nothing. It was inevitable that it would lower the standard of living for americans some say justifiably as america was a wealthier nation but the overall planning of these free trade moves was abysmal. Add to that the banking deregulation and the abuse of that and we have this terrible economic state. We need leaders with much broader vision to create a plan for a sustainable american economy and quality of life for americans.

user-pic

.

General note...

Although this doesn't deal with inequality in relationship to the chronically unemployed, Wray just dropped the following two wished for policy points out of seven for the short term over in:

Policy Advice for President Obama (Part One)
December 18, 2008, 11:35PM

4. Immediate tax relief: I advocate an immediate payroll tax holiday--stop collecting the OASDI portion of the payroll tax from employers and employees. Both the employer and employee pay 6.2% (the self-employed pay 12.4%) up to a current maximum taxable base of $102,000. Approximately 163 million people paid Social Security taxes on earnings in 2007. Total tax revenue raised was $656 billion, which amounts to an average of $4025 per taxpayer. A tax holiday would provide immediate tax relief to workers and their employers, injecting $12.62 billion each week into the economy. Take-home pay would rise by an average of $77 per week for each taxpayer, with an equivalent saving per worker for each employer. A worker who earned $40,000 a year would get a tax cut of $2480 per year. Just as important, that worker's employer would also benefit from $2480 of tax relief, which may help keep workers on the job. If desired, we can phase the tax back in when the stimulus is no longer needed--although payroll tax reform is included in my longer-run policy proposal.

5. Fiscal stimulus: Many argue that government spending is more stimulative than is a tax cut, since part of the tax cut is saved. So what? Households have been spending more than their incomes for a dozen years, and the geniuses on Wall Street have just wiped out about half of their retirement savings. The answer is that we need both: a payroll tax holiday to strengthen household balance sheets, and more government spending to restore the economy. To do immediate good, we need spending that can get underway quickly. Increased unemployment compensation and other forms of social spending are needed. It is also important to help state and local governments, which are reeling from the double whammy of higher expenses and plummeting tax revenues. I suggest at least $400 billion of "block grants"--perhaps based on population--to be spread among these governments. Maybe some of the money would be targeted (public infrastructure projects that were already underway, or are on the shelf and ready to go), some would go to Medicaid, and some would come with no strings attached.

Note: My bold highlight above.

Just for a general heads-up . . .

~OGD~

user-pic

.


For general information...

Even though it seems that this particular thread has become inactive, I post this just in case Tom comes through. The following article is from today's Reuters.

Obama seeks lifeline for struggling families

President-elect Barack Obama has promised to confront income inequality and the falling fortunes of the working- and middle-class but faces a huge challenge to reverse decades of decline.

The slide from the middle class to the ranks of the working poor gained momentum in eight years under President George W. Bush and fighting that trend will define much of Obama's early years as he faces the worst recession in post-war history.

"My administration will be absolutely committed to the future of America's middle-class and working families," Obama said on Sunday, echoing a central theme of his presidential campaign.

Obama, who has said a strong and growing middle-class is the key to a strong economy, announced the creation of a task force led by Vice President-elect Joe Biden to help working people and those on the lowest rungs of middle-class life.

And specific to inequality and poverty:

There are varying explanations for the erosion of the middle class, but in a country with the largest gap between rich and poor of any industrialized Western nation, many blame it on corporate greed.

"In the last 30 years we've organized an economy (in which) every increase in wealth, every increase in productivity, has gone to the top 1 percent of the population," said Michael Zweig, a professor of economics at New York's Stony Brook University.

"It's gone to the corporate elite, that's who's got the wealth," he said.

CHRONIC POVERTY

Poverty remains chronic in the richest country in the world. About 37.3 million people, or 12.5 percent of the population, were living below the official poverty line in 2007, the latest year for U.S. Census Bureau statistics. The poverty rate had stood at 12.8 percent in 1968, showing there had been little improvement in nearly four decades.

"Up until about the mid-'70s, as the productivity grew in this country, median family income grew just in lock-step. The increasing wealth of the country was reaching regular folks," said Heidi Shierholz, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute in Washington.

"Then around the mid-'70s it just started to depart," she said.

"The battle the incoming administration is facing is really a decades-long sort of erosion of the ability of the middle-class to share in the prosperity of the country," Shierholz said.

The period from 2000 to 2007 marked the first business cycle on record in which median family incomes failed to increase, she added, calling the job market under Bush "a total disaster."

Now we await to see what Joe Biden's "task-force" will produce in the way of a comprehensive plan for the middle-class and those at the level of chronic poverty.


~OGD~

Leave a comment

Tom Hollenbach

user-pic

Following: 6
Followers: 21

Posts
Comments & Recommends


  • Location New Jersey
  • Party Democrat
  • Politics Social liberal and economic and foreign policy centrist

Favorites

  • Favorite Blogs TPM, Paul Krugman, fivethirtyeight.com, politicalwire.com
  • Favorite Books How the Mind Works - by Steven Pinker, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order - by Samuel Huntington, The Story of Civilization - by Will and Ariel Durant
  • Favorite Quotes God gave you a brain and he meant you to use it - My Nana

Bio

I am a Clinical Psychologist in private practice. I also am writing a book that explains changes in the value systems of societies over time using insights from evolutionary psychology.

All Reader Posts
How to use myTPM

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address