Inequality, Instability, and Depression
There is an interesting discussion going on at tpmcafe about
what ended the great depression, led by Paul Krugman. It's great, but something seems to me to be missing from the
discussion. It's inequality.
There are clear historical correlations between income
inequality and financial instability. Inequality increased during the early 20th
century, peaking in the late 1920s, when we had asset bubbles that led to a
crash and the Great Depression. Then, inequality was greatly reduced during the
1945-1973 period, which was financially stable. After that it started rising
again, and so did instability, which became increasingly problematic after the
brief stock market crash of 1987. Inequality now has again reached 1929 levels,
and 1929-level financial instability is also occurring, with the financial
system now in a constant state of crisis. I am very surprised that no one is
talking much about a causal connection.
It also seems to me that the cause-and-effect links are pretty
obvious. When inequality increases, more people experience absolute declines in
their standard of living, and go into debt in attempts to maintain their
consumption. Also, people at the top of the income distribution have much more
money, which creates much higher demand for financial instruments and this
leads to bubbles in financial assets. Ultimately, you would expect two things
to happen that would reinforce each other: bubbles burst and debtors default,
and then you would have a massive disappearance of wealth and a resulting crash
in demand.
This is pretty much what happened with the Great Depression, and
it's also a very good description of what is happening today. This would imply that policies to
reduce inequality are a long-term necessity. Am I missing something?
Inequality was reduced after the Depression by the New Deal
safety net programs such as Social Security, and also by a very progressive
income tax, with very high tax rates for the wealthy. Conservatives like to claim that this kind of progressive
taxation stifles growth, but the postwar period turned out to be a Golden Age
economically, with strong growth and little or no financial instability.
I truly wonder why this issue does not get more discussion. I have searched regular Google and
Scholar.Google,com for books and articles on this relationship, and find very
little. I'm not an economist, so
there is probably a literature on it that I'm not familiar with, but I also
have a suspicion that this topic may be ignored for political and ideological
reasons, some of which may be subconscious. If high inequality could be demonstrated to be bad for the
economy as a whole, then a lot of wealthy interests would be threatened.
If needs to be reduced, how could this be done? Well, going back to the more
progressive income tax would be an obvious answer, as would taxing capital
gains in the same progressive fashion.
So would improving the safety net, with government-sponsored health
care. Stillidealistic has an
excellent suggestion in this area on her current blog post "How's This for an
Outside the Box Idea?" Her proposal
is to pay parents to stay home with their children, at least while they are
young. In addition to giving
children more time with their parents, this would contract the labor supply and
drive up wages. It should be
pointed out that this occurred after WWII when many women who had worked during
the war left the labor force and had children, and the result was an economy in
which a single earner made enough to support a family.





Yeah, there is a lot of discussion about ratios and the need for capital and blah blah blah. Now I cannot remember the name, but one of the contributrrs who actually took the time to reply to one of our comments was more in line with what you are talking about. He took the ratio blah blah blah to urge for a couple trillion dollars in governmental programs and Susan Feiner just posted there and she is echoing what Stilli is talking about.
December 17, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its Randall Wray. He just posted again. I still cannot get over that he actually chimed in on comments.
December 17, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
What you say is obvious. I agree. Now it's just a matter of convincing the Congress. I bet the Obama folks are already thinking of this.
Thanks, Tom!
December 17, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Thera. I just read that Obama's team wants a stim plan of about $850 bn, with infrastructure jobs, tax cuts, and aid to the poor. The outside economists he consulted with that were named were mostly conservative. I'd love to know the details. But it sounds pretty good.
December 17, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, DD. I thought that if it seemed so obvious but wasn't a generally accepted idea, then it must have been shown to be wrong. From what you say, maybe not. I'll check out Wray soon.
December 17, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
You raise a really interesting issue. I'm going to check out SSRN/JSTOR and see if anybody has published anything recently..
December 17, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, that would be great. I'd be really interested in what's out there.
December 17, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
progress report: I have learned that America has a two tier income structure. That the lower 97% has an exponential income curve, but the top 3% has a Pareto Power curve (?). That we are not the worse country in the world in the GINI index (an income disparity metric used by the UN) but we aren't too good compared with other industrialized countries. We and Mexico are among the worst. (Aristocratic)Hands Across the Border!
Nothing on the topic though. You may have a Thesis topic there!
December 18, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
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Something of interest . . .
Hey Hey Tom . . .
Read the rest at: Inequality and the Common Good November 3, 2008
That's found at the Institute for Policy Studies, the parent organization of the Working Group on Extreme Inequality.
~OGD~
December 18, 2008 2:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
OGD, that's a wonderful quote. Ike also was the guy, of course, who warned us about the military-industrial complex. Republican used to be very different.
What's interesting to me is that this shows that was a real paradigm shift in everyone's thinking about economics from the 1920s to the 1950s, brought on, of course, by the experience of the great depression. I'm writing a book on values shifts in societies and their causes, and I'm betting that another, very similar one is one the way, and in fact, is already in progress. Thanks for the reference and the link, perhaps I'll quote that in the book.
December 18, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
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And . . .
About a "paradigm shift"?
Ike also warned.
From The Papers of Dwight David Eisenhower,
Volume XV - The Presidency: The Middle Way
Part VI: Crises Abroad, Party Problems at Home;
September 1954 to December 1954
Chapter 13: "A new phase of political experience"
Document #1147; November 8, 1954
To Edgar Newton Eisenhower
~OGD~
December 18, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also from that article:
I wonder if part of the problem is that these days the wealthy have more loophole and offshore financial options than they did 50 years ago. If loopholes in the 50's meant that folks in a 91% tax bracket actually paid about 50%, do you think it's possible that someone in a 70% bracket might find a way to move overseas to avoid paying anything? Could it be that the justification is that 18-39% is better than nothing?
I don't know much about the economics of the 50's, so I'm really just asking.
December 18, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do not think that income inequality per se is a cause of instability. The prime cause was a stagnant or declining real income for a large percentage of the population and the attempt by the powers that be ( Rep. and Dem. ) to prop up the economy with debt. Real and perceived declines in personal standards of living can be very painful, so when offered an easy way out with easy credit, many people took it.
The nation has followed a failed trade policy, a failed energy policy, a failed immigration policy and has supported a bureaucracy that considers it's mandate the destruction of privet enterprise. Is it any surprise that the economy is in shambles?
December 18, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
It may not be the cause, but it is certainly a cause. The debt thing is linked to the inequality thing.
I happen to believe (without much in the way of proof) that income inequality alone is not the problem: it becomes a problem when the inequality is self-reinforcing, i.e., there's too little income mobility to go with the income disparity.
If the guy who take home $30 mil this year could just as easily have to make do with $30k for the next five years, he's going to behave very differently than if he's assured of at least $25 mil for the rest of his working life.
December 18, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been saying this since i got to TPM. go back and check my comments.
December 18, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lawrence Summers agrees with you and writes about it.
December 18, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absoutely. I don't understand $700 billion to free up credit when people can't buy things and pay bills without jobs and we have been leaking good, quality jobs since NAFTA, and GATT put the american worker and manufacturers in direct competition with those around the world with workers working for next to nothing. It was inevitable that it would lower the standard of living for americans some say justifiably as america was a wealthier nation but the overall planning of these free trade moves was abysmal. Add to that the banking deregulation and the abuse of that and we have this terrible economic state. We need leaders with much broader vision to create a plan for a sustainable american economy and quality of life for americans.
December 18, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
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General note...
Although this doesn't deal with inequality in relationship to the chronically unemployed, Wray just dropped the following two wished for policy points out of seven for the short term over in:
Policy Advice for President Obama (Part One)
December 18, 2008, 11:35PM
Note: My bold highlight above.
Just for a general heads-up . . .
~OGD~
December 19, 2008 3:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
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For general information...
Even though it seems that this particular thread has become inactive, I post this just in case Tom comes through. The following article is from today's Reuters.
Obama seeks lifeline for struggling families
And specific to inequality and poverty:
Now we await to see what Joe Biden's "task-force" will produce in the way of a comprehensive plan for the middle-class and those at the level of chronic poverty.
~OGD~
December 23, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink