Both Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno) provide a breakdown of early voting by party ID.  In the rest of the state, party ID is not given but the total early vote numbers are.  Also, voter registration is broken down by party. 

Using this data and assuming:

1. Independents break even.
2. Obama captures 90% of Dem and 10% Rep, and vice-versa for McCain
3. Early voting in the rest of the state is proportional to voter registration by party ID.

Crunching the numbers, I estimate Obama is ahead b 62,000 votes.  Up 76,000 in Clark and Washoe counties combined, and down 14,000 in the rest of the state.

There are approximately 233,00 Republicans and 252,000 Democrats who haven't voted.  If we assume that 90% of Republicans turnout on election day and all vote for McCain, this gives them an additional 210,000 votes.  This means that Democrats have to net 148,000 votes out of the 252,000 remaining Democrats.  This will happen is we turnout 75%, with a 90-10 Obama-McCain split.

The Bottom line; if Democrats turnout anywhere close to Republicans, we win.

Indulge me for a few paragraphs while I tell you a story about my wife's sister. Let's call her Sarah. I think her story illustrates, in a fundamental way, what this election is all about. Sarah works for a medical device manufacturer as a line supervisor. About a year ago the company was bought by a larger corporation. The corporation, seeking bigger profits, decided to replace the older workers with younger people at less pay. Not able to do this directly without breaking laws, they told the older workers like Sarah to go back to working on the line. This was a demotion. The hope was that these workers would feel humiliated and quit. Sarah didn't quit, figuring that she would get paid the same and would now have less responsibility. Fast forward a year and the company is now losing money. They are not meeting just in time delivery requirements. Product quality is not up to snuff and people are falsifying documents and time cards. To try and rectify the problem, management reverts to what worked before. They ask Sarah once again to supervise the line. Sarah negotiates a modest pay raise and some other modest benefits. The management now reports that they are back in the black, after following Sarah's recommendations. Although I am proud of my sister in law, I post this story because it shows so clearly that many have lost a respect for labor in this country. Workers are not a drag on corporate profits. Workers create the profits. That is what this election is about on a very fundamental level. We need a government that respects labor; a government that knows that labor is the source of our wealth. That is why Sarah, her husband, me and my wife will be voting for Barack Obama and a Democratic ticket.

I forced myself to watch McCain on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos.  McCain had his left side toward the camera, which was unusual since that is his "bad" side.

Moreover, his left eye was bloodshot and kept welling with tears almost to the point where a tear would fall.  Then the camera would cut away to George, and when the camera went back to McCain the eye would be dry, but still bloodshot.

Did anybody else notice this?  Is this just a case of pink eye, or is it possibly something more serious.  I know that there were concerns that his left eye was droopy a few days ago.  Is there an ophthalmologist who might give us a long range opinion?

In the year 2000 Bush beat Gore in Nevada by 31, 597 votes. Registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats by 1,307.

 

In 2004 Bush beat Kerry by 21,500 votes.  Registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats by 4,431.

 

As of August 2008 the Nevada Secretary of State reports that registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 61,705 voters.

 

According to an Obama campaign worker who is helping to coordinate the voter registration drive in North Las Vegas, there are approximately 300,000 Nevadans who are eligible to vote but are not registered.  The Obama campaign has been actively registering voters the last few weekends, but need to register as many as possible before registration closes on October 4

 

Nevada is a voter friendly state.  We have early voting from October 18 until October 31.  The electronic touch screen voting machines (with paper trail backup) are moved to local grocery stores to make it easy and accessible for voters.

 

What does all of this mean?  Essentially it means that winning or losing Nevada is entirely in our hands.   If we register enough new Obama voters and get them to the polls, we will win.  It is that simple.

 

But, simple does not mean easy.  Many of these unregistered voters are not easy to find.  They are hidden in the poor neighborhoods, mingled with families who are here illegally, to busy working two or more jobs to register, or just need to be convinced that voting is important.

 

And just because they register does not mean that they will vote.  Take for example a lady I registered today in a public housing project.  She is 76, a widow, and in a wheelchair with diabetes.  She will need someone to take her to vote. 

 

Will we be there?  Does the fate of our country depend on helping these people get registered and to the polls?   It just might.

 

So, if you live in a nearby state that is safely going blue or red, why not come to Vegas?   You can enjoy a show or play some Texas holdem at night and save the republic in the day.  Yes you can.

In an article written for the AP by Matt Apuzzo about McCain's housing gaffe (8/21/08), I found this gem: "It's also another example of how McCain, nearly 72, can be fuzzy and forgetful on some facts". Maybe lines like this will start becoming standard fare for articles about McCain. We can only hope.

            I remember when I was 24.  I was running 5 miles up and down hills three days a week. I weighed 155 and could bench press 250.  I was going to school and soaking up information like a sponge.  I could solve differential equations in my head.  It was a good time.

 

            That was almost 3 decades ago.  Today my joints can’t bear the weight I once lifted, my lungs don’t have the capacity to carry me as fast and far as they used to, and I am not going to admit my weight.  I also do not have the capacity to learn at the rate I once did.   Instead of solving differential equations in my head, I find myself reaching for a calculator to do simple arithmetic.

 

No doubt, as the decades go by my physical and mental capacity will decline further.  Such is life.

 

            Which brings us to the point of this essay; what age is too old to be president?   At what age has a person declined so far from their peak that they can no longer perform the duties of President?  The constitution requires a person be at least 35, but gave no upper limit.  However, the job has changed significantly since the constitution was written.  The demands on the President are awesome and constant.  In this information age, the President could be called upon to make life and death decisions for thousands in the twinkling of an eye. 

 

            Think for a moment.  How about 85 or 80?  I think most would agree that 80 is too old.  How about 76?  Can we count on a 76 year old person to quickly and accurately access information to determine if pressing the button is warranted? 

 

               This brings us to the current presidential race.  This “ageism” meme suggesting that we are guilty of prejudice if we discuss a candidate’s age is surreal.   Why is the nation dancing around the fact John McCain would be 76 at the end of his first term?  We have already witnessed the “senior moments” on the campaign trail.  I think it apparent that McCain has suffered a mental decline such that he is not fit for the office.  Is it ageism when fighter pilots become too old to fly?  If we can acknowledge physical decline, why can’t we acknowledge mental decline.  Acknowledging that we decline both physically and mentally does not make us ageist; rather, it acknowledges our shared fate. 

 

               So, as we talk about this election with friends, family, and co-workers, we should stop dancing around McCain’s age!  Just say this: “The Presidency is no job for old men”.  No apologies necessary.