Is There Commodities Speculation Regulation In Our Futures?
Remember last summer when speculators drove the price of oil to more than $140 a barrel and you paid $4.00 a gallon for gas. Well, "They're back." For no apparent reason oil has gone back up to $70 a barrel, today in CA gas is $2.99. Staycation anyone?
Attention speculators; the jigs up:
Detractors suggest the regulation process could take months. Not so, according to Bart Chilton, a CFTC commissioner:In response to gyrating oil and commodity prices, the CFTC announced this week it was planning to clamp down on big market players by implementing position limits on all commodity futures contracts of limited supply, focusing especially on energy.
"We're looking at a pretty fast timeline," "We're going to use our authority to the fullest extent possible. (Commodities trading limits fast tracked)
Who exactly are these reckless speculators that seem hell bent on taking down our, and the world's economy? I know, Dr Evil. No? Then who?
While traditional speculators go in and out of the markets, big pension and endowment funds in recent years have also diversified their investments into commodities to hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar. Some positions grew so large that legislators and analysts said the trend was pushing oil prices to levels that couldn't be justified by fundamentals. (Regulator to consider limits on commodity speculators)"...big pension and endowment funds!" You mean tens of thousands of auto and airline workers lost their jobs and/or saw their pensions drop perspicaciously because of geniuses who run their pension funds?! No one can afford to send their kid to Harvard because of the Harvard endowment fund?! What is wrong with this picture?
What's the plan, Boss? It's called, "position limits." Roughly translated it means no one, country, institution, investor can corner the market and drive up prices. Like the California Public Employees' Retirement System, the biggest U.S. public pension fund, now has about $600 million in commodities. Maybe someone should tell the financial wizards that California is like broke. Like can't afford retirement contributions.
Of course there are those against regulation like trading firms, brokers and big banks. You know the companies that the taxpayers had to bail out the last time we had $4.00 gas. (Pass the Tums.)
The world has gotten too big and too greedy not to be regulated, worldwide. Of course Republicans will scream, cause that's the only thing they know how to do. Then again whose ever heard of a Republican worker or businesses affected by high gas prices? Calling Dr Evil...
Dr. Evil: Gentlemen, I have a plan. It's called blackmail. The Royal Family of Britain are the wealthiest landowners in the world. Either the Royal Family pays us an exorbitant amount of money, or we make it seen that Prince Charles has had an affair outside of marriage and therefore would have to divorce!Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery (1997)
Number Two: Prince Charles *did* have an affair. He admitted it...
Dr. Evil: Right, people you have to tell me these things, okay? I've been frozen for thirty years, okay? Throw me a frickin' bone here! I'm the boss! Need the info.
















Great blog, thanks for writing. More people need to know about the speculators "behind the curtain". I do indeed hope the jig is up, this needs to happen now.
July 12, 2009 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/08/oil-speculation/
for further reading!
July 13, 2009 6:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good one. Didn't see. Thanks...
July 13, 2009 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yea it is complete and utter BS, speculators bet that the price is going to go up, which makes it go up then they can sell what they got and make a ton of cash. The money they made has to come from somewhere and it comes from mine and yours pocket.
July 13, 2009 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
What about the speculators that lost money when oil went from $140 to $40? Maybe they can't really control prices or else why would they have let the price crash?
July 13, 2009 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wrong.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jan2009/db2009018_370800.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+%2B+analysis
(snip) But just as the stampede of nontraditional investors into the oil futures market helped to push prices up, their exit has had a hand in bringing them down. Many hedge funds and institutional investors have unwound losing positions or have been forced to sell to meet margin calls elsewhere in their portfolio, analysts say. Noncommercial traders—mainly investors who never take actual delivery of crude—reduced their long futures bets on the New York Mercantile Exchange by about a fifth over the seven-month period ending in December, from 266,733 in May to 215,665 as of Dec. 22, according to Nymex figures.
"The new speculators—those who were caught up in a herding mentality and helped to cause the bubble trouble—have exerted added momentum to the swift price declines," says Bart Chilton, a commissioner with the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which regulates oil trading. (snip)
July 13, 2009 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wrong? So you're saying that the CFTC is wrong? That's your opinion which you are entitled too. But I guess you missed the part of the report that says that "current oil prices and the increase in oil prices between January 2003 and June 2008 are largely due to fundamental supply and demand factors".
Added momentum is different from causing the price run ups and downs. It is also very different from being able to manipulate the market. There may have been some hedge funds forced to sell to make margin calls, but lots of hedge funds probably also made a lot of money on the way up and weren't under pressure to sell
Do you think that the speculators also drove down prices recently from $70 to $60? Or was that just due to supply and demand?
July 13, 2009 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, speculators live in a fantasy world. But they operate with real money, other peoples' money. The upside to all of this is that we managed to avoid privitizing social security BEFORE this event which should prevent any further serious discussion of that proposition for at least a decade or two. The unfortunate side of that is right about the time the population is forgetting this most current financial SNAFU, it will be time for me to collect on Social Security. I hope it is still around.
July 13, 2009 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I read that they may also regulate how much cash as opposed to borrowed they need, too.
July 13, 2009 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not all too optimistic. the CFTC is an awful regulator, and left to its own devices it will do whatever GS and MS ask it to...
July 13, 2009 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The CFTC of course concluded that speculation is not the main driver in price changes. That doesn't mean that extra regulation isn't prudent. But people should not assume that "speculators" (whatever that means) drives the price for oil.
http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/itfinterimreportoncrudeoil0708.pdf
July 13, 2009 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler told lawmakers that he needs broad authority to bring all derivatives contracts under regulatory supervision. Derivatives involve bets that derive their value based on future prices of some underlying asset, such as oil contracts, interest rates, currency or even bonds and other forms of credit."
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/politics/story/69482.html
I don't know what lobbyist you got your link from, but the Chairman of the CFTC disagrees with your contention.
July 13, 2009 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
McClatchy has been wrong before. But besides that, it is fair that the CFTC wants more regulation. But that doesn't mean that financial players can control/manipulate prices nor were they the ones mainly responsible for the large run up (or the run down) in prices.
I have no idea what you're talking about with regard to any "lobbyists". The source of the report is the CFTC's website. Did you miss that the link started with "www.cftc.gov"?? I encourage you to read the report
July 13, 2009 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have our very own homegrown oil speculator here in town. It's called Sem Group. They had very poor timing, tho', and got into big trouble last year due mainly to one of the principals in the company and his overreaching.
July 13, 2009 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
To a certain extent, our market depends on speculation. However, in our crap-shoot economy, there are no reins and like all other financial adventuring, it becomes detached from any sense of reality. Bubbles burst... that's the nature of bubbles. It's utter insanity to establish prices on nothing more than blind faith that value in this or that commodity will always increase - or bet that it won't. I'm not an economist, but it seems very important to set regulatory constraints in a way that economic bubbles don't puff up in the first place. We have to move our financial system away from the craps table, and rein in the greed.
July 13, 2009 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink