Word To Republicans: Your Mojo Has Left The Building (But You Still Got Your Base)
Austin: I've lost my mojo.
Felicity Shagwell: Oh, so that's why you...
Austin: Yes! Yes!
Felicity Shagwell: [smiles] I thought you didn't like me!
Austin: Oh no, baby. You're very shagadelic. I just didn't want to fall in love again, and I thought you'd never love me without my mojo. It's not you. You're fab, you're switched on, you're a bit of alright! YES!Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me (1999)
This just didn't happen overnight:For the past few months, political analysts and demographers have been poring over the results of the 2008 election and comparing them with presidential results from the past two decades. From whatever angle of their approach -- age, race, economic status, geography -- they have come to a remarkably similar conclusion. Almost all indicators are pressing the Republicans into minority status.
Republicans are still capable of winning individual elections, but until they find a way to reverse, or at least minimize, these broader changes in the country, their chances of returning to majority status will be severely reduced.
Democrats have won the popular vote in four of the past five elections, though in one case (2000) they did not end up in the White House. In years in which they have also won the electoral vote, Democrats have racked up sizable margins. Obama bested John McCain by 365 to 173, and Bill Clinton's two victories were in the same range. George W. Bush's two electoral-college victories were narrow; he won 271 votes in the disputed election of 2000 and 286 in his 2004 reelection.Of course, Republicans, who know everything, about everything, know exactly why, "We're not Conservative, enough!" Oh yeah. Absorb this.
What has brought this about? It's not just one thing -- it's everything. Start with the Democrats' success in the suburbs. Lang's formula is that demography and density have combined to help Democrats: They dominate not just the cities but also the urbanized suburbs that contain the largest share of the suburban population in America."You're out of people." How can that be?:
Democratic strength in the counties around Philadelphia, around Detroit and in Northern Virginia have squeezed Republicans dramatically. Increasingly, Republican strength outside the urban areas counts for less. "There's just not enough rural folks and small-city people left in America in the key states that determine the electoral college to offset that difference," Lang said. "You're out of people."
The South now accounts for a greater share of Republican strength than at virtually any time since the party's founding. That base is too narrow, as even Republicans know.Facts are facts:
- Whites accounted for 76 percent of the overall electorate last November, down from 85 percent in 1988.
- In the last election, there were more than 2 million additional African American voters, about 2 million more Hispanic voters and about a million more Asian American voters.
What's a Republican to do? They know what we know, yet they continue to dig the hole they are in deeper, and deeper. Why?
- There was much attention paid to Obama's trouble winning the votes of white working-class voters. Since 1988, that group's proportion of the national electorate has dropped by 15 percentage points. In Pennsylvania, it has declined by 25%.
- Younger voters are more diverse demographically than older voters. In 2008, 62 percent were white, compared with 74 percent eight years earlier. Projections show young voters will become increasingly diverse. They are also less religious and more culturally liberal, two indicators of Democratic support.
There are lots of theory's, let me add two more. It's about business. It's about fear.
Business: What's the Republican brand worth a year? And not just party fund raising. I'm talking right wing radio, and television, and books, and magazines, and newspapers, and, and, and... We are talking billions, and billions, here.
Who pays for all these pundits, and airtime, and ink? The base. The deep pocketed, church going, NASCAR watching, red meat loving, base. And, what happens when you piss off the base? Who wants to piss off the base, not the ones profiting off their largess, they're living the life of O'Reilly.
Fear: What else happens when you piss off the base? They get mad. I'm talking threatening mail sending, fomenting phone-in calling, hate filled blogging. Let's face it the right wing has cornered the market on vitriol, acrimony, and anger. They are that good.
There also lurks a greater danger, the abortion doctor, holocaust museum guard killing right wing voters. The thing about rage is it blinds you to kill anyone that pisses you off. Why would any right minded profiteer ever, ever take a chance like that? No way, that's for idiots who actually believe in the message they are selling.
Republicans know the truth of their situation. Rather then even consider change they are circling their Brink's Armored trucks with the goal to take from the base as much money as possible while staying in their good graces, and out of harms way.
If the Democrats can avoid going too far to the left, and stay out of political and financial trouble they could very well be in control of Congress, and the White House for a long time to come. That way we can assure that O'Reilly pays his fair share of taxes. And, the majority of us can live in the country our founding fathers intended, for, and by, we the people.
Col. Jessep: Son, we live in a world that has walls and those walls need to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lieutenant Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago and curse the Marines; you have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives and that my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall. We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use then as the backbone of a life trying to defend something. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said "thank you," and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest that you pick up a weapon and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.A Few Good Men (1992)
















you got me laughin from beginning to end.
From MoJo to a few good men.
"Of course, Republicans, who know everything, about everything, know exactly why, "We're not Conservative, enough!" Oh yeah. Absorb this."
For sure they know every thing and for chrissakes, do not ever let them be debriefed. (blesses himself)
Ha!
June 14, 2009 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please don't make me laugh. I'm old and have gas.
"Life isn't life without a comment of the Day." - Murry
Luv ya bro.
June 14, 2009 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
very good post, Steve.
Regardless of which party is in power, we have to loosen the corporate chokehold on our democracy.
We can have a Democratic majority in all branches of government for the next one hundred years and still lose.
We can change the outcome of an election but can we change the outcome of policy?
IMO, the Republicans aren't the obstacle to progress.
A government free from the influence of corporate greed is the obstacle.
We may never be able to achieve that but somehow we need to achieve equal influence on how our reps and Senators vote.
June 14, 2009 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steve, this is a great post and has cheered me in my insomnia. It'll be interesting to see the follow up to the piece you quoted.
TPMgary - A government free from the influence of corporate greed is the obstacle.
Your sentence is one of the truest statements I have read on TPM ever. I refuse to believe in the general conspiracies that float about but it is all about the money isn't it? .... (insert your favorite foul word here).
June 15, 2009 4:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Uninhibited corporate greed has converted our democracy, a supposed public enterprise, into a private enterprise.
It is about the money, Blue. But I think when you have more money than god, you think you are god. And it becomes more about one's delusion of power.
We need to raise the value of social responsibility.
June 15, 2009 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is great Steve in every way.Thanks
June 14, 2009 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well researched and well put. Now we have to keep our majority accountable (no easy task there)!
June 15, 2009 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink