Sporcupine's Blog

JFK and Palin: A Single Standard for Parents

2008-09-01T21:55:11Z

In my lifetime, I'm confident that there's only been two babies in the White House--John Kennedy and Patrick Kennedy (the child died soon after birth)--and one more child under five--their sister Caroline. I'm 99% certain that no vice-president has had a child that young. I know Mrs. Kennedy felt exhaustion and loss, that her husband was not able to fully respond, and that he relied on prescription stimulants to meet the energy demands of the office.

If you told me that a man had decided to run for president with a four-month-old baby, I'd be very sad for his wife and child. You can't be there for tiny children and their exhausted at-home parent while doing a good job on the campaign trail. And you can't be there nearly enough while sitting the Oval Office or next door.

I'd feel a little better if you told me the mom had a strong network around her while the dad was going to be so insanely busy--but I'd also imagine myself as the aunt, grandma, or nanny trying to provide enough support to fill in for daddy-gone-a-roaming.

Okay, I admit that I worry an extra round when Sarah Palin says the same thing. She's breast-feeding, and that adds to the strain. I'm used to women filling in for missing husbands on parenting, but she's already done the loop where she thought her husband would become the full-time parent and he turned out to have other ideas.

Add in the fact that Trig has special needs, and I truly don't understand the Governor's intentions with regard to her family, the campaign, and the office she seeks. Short-changing the child would be tragic. Short-changing the campaign would be bad. Short-changing the job--and the one she might inherit--would be a terrible disservice ot the nation.

As a feminist, a mom, and a career woman, I know that astonishing juggling acts can be carried off--but I also know it takes a plan and it takes knowing that you'll let many important things drop.

What will Candidate Palin, VP Palin, President Palin drop? And does she really think John Kennedy is evidence that she can keep enough balls in the air?

Bluntly, I see no sign that she has thought that through, and I fear that she's a reckless running mate for a reckless John McCain.

America needs the Clintons

2008-05-23T16:17:33Z

We need Bill, running a fabulous foundation that does mighty work on mighty issues, using all his connections to make things happen that can't be done from inside government.
And we need Hillary in the Senate. We need someone as tenacious on health care as she's been in this race. We don't need either one of them tethered to an Obama administration's talking points, having to support policy they don't get to define.
Somehow, the Kennedy news helped me remember that, outside this race, both of them are positioned to play unique roles that I deeply admire. V.P. would be a waste of her talents and his.

Pew Poll: Obama leads McCain by 6, Clinton leads by 4

2008-05-01T23:28:48Z

The poll says:

Clinton (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%
Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 44%
Sample size: 1,323 registered voters. Margin of error: ±3%

That's the news that's about November.
That's the news that's about changing the party in power. That's the news about getting serious about ending Iraq, winning in Afghanistan, not lunging into Iran, moving hard toward green energy, and getting meaningful action on health.
Sadly, the TPM headline is about a microtrend in the primary, just the way Karl Rove and Marc Penn would spin it. Between two Democrats, working class white voters prefer Clinton by a wide margin. It's true. It's a good signal on where Obama could do constructive work to widen his lead in November. It's a good indication of how the Clinton endorsements will be valuable.

But it is not the main news, not at all, not at all, not at all.

The main news from this poll is that both Democratic candidates are doing well against the Republican.

$5M to herself, $10.3M to others, $7.3M in the red (not technically, but really)

2008-04-21T15:21:14Z

As soon as Senator Clinton's FEC form showed up on the FEC site, people started asking if the $10.3 million in debt included the $5 million she owes herself.

No, it doesn't.

If you download the itemized debt list, the top debts are $4.6 million to Penn, $1.2 million to The Spoken Hub phone bank, $956 thousand to MSHC Partners (printing), and $538 to Grunwald.

So the arithmetic is $8 million on hand, $10.3 million owed to others, $5 million owed to herself, and bottom line is -$7.3 million.

Accountants call that being in the red.

Her creditors may trust her to pay them, but that doesn't put the campaign in the black.

The campaign may have a plan of how they'll pay up later, but that doesn't put them in the black. If you don't have the assets to pay your debts, you're in the red.

212 Pledged Delegates and It's Over

2008-04-20T22:28:49Z

When Senator Obama has a majority of all possible pledged delegates, he's won. The super-delegates who don't want to call the election themselves will get on board, and it'll be over.

So it's worth noting that he only needs 212 to get to a pledged majority. Senator Clinton needs 378.

Suppose she takes 55% of the delegates in Pennsylvania, and then averages that margin in the next six races: Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon. She still loses the race.

A 45% average in those races will give him those 212 when we wake up on May 21st, it will be clear that he's won.

Clinton and Arafat: On Film

2008-04-17T02:15:28Z

Check out http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/990000/images/_992299_hill_bill_yassr300.jpg. Hillary Clinton with a known terrorist. I'm sure she'll stay he'd stopped being a terrorist. I say she gave the guy the prestige of the First Family by appearing with him. And I say that's way more than Barack Obama ever did for Bill Ayers.

Mind, I think she was right to be in that photo. It's part of how peace gets made. But I'm tired of the hypocrisy and ready to take on Bush and McCain.

Income over $100K: 1/16th of the Population

2008-04-17T01:47:31Z

At the debate, Gibson is just determined that there are "a whole lot" of people making over $100K. The issue is whether income over $100K should be exempt from Social Security and Medicare taxes.

At http://pubdb3.census.gov/macro/032007/perinc/new01_001.htm, the Census Bureau reports on its 2006 survey findings on individual income.

The report shows 208.5 million people with income, of whom 12.4 million have income $100,000 or above. That's less than 6% of the total. It's the wealthiest 1/16th of the population.

The current deal is that money is taken out of everyone's paycheck up to the cut off. That means all of us take home a bit less, and the money's set aside to pay benefits to retirees and the disabled.

Except, once you individually earn more than $100,000 a year, the tax stops. You get a free ride on the rest on what you earn.

Obama's proposal is to cancel the free ride on pay over $100,000.

If Gibson can't see that those folks are privileged, does that maybe make him an elitist?

The Boss on Being Bitter

2008-04-14T18:19:44Z

Obama is restating what Springsteen told us years ago.

Well my daddy come on the Ohio works
When he come home from world war two
Now the yards just scrap and rubble
He said, "Them big boys did what Hitler couldn't do"
These mills they built the tanks and bombs
That won this country's wars
We sent our sons to Korea and Vietnam
Now we're wondering what they were dyin' for

Here in Youngstown
Here in Youngstown
My sweet Jenny, I'm sinkin' down
Here darlin' in Youngstown

From the Monongaleh valley
To the Mesabi iron range
To the coal mines of Appalacchia
The story's always the same
Seven-hundred tons of metal a day
Now sir you tell me the world's changed
Once I made you rich enough
Rich enough to forget my name

The poets have known for years, and it's good to finally have a leader willing to look it in the eye.

Kentucky Poll Shows Clinton Lead in Primary, McCain in the fall

2008-04-08T23:01:17Z

Check out the details at http://polwatchers.typepad.com/pol_watchers/.
Preston-Osborne is an in-state firm with a credible reputation and ties to the Democratic party.

The basic findings:

• Clinton 56/Obama 25
• McCain 53 /Clinton 42
• McCain 60 /Obama 29

That makes sense for my adopted home state as of today.

Obama campaigning has begun mainly in the last week, so I expect he'll gain some primary points in the coming weeks and some general election points in the coming months.

Breaking News: Penn is UnDead

2008-04-06T23:34:56Z

The e-mail announcement from Maggie Williams says both the man and the firm will still be polling and advising. He's just not the Grand Poobah of Strategy any more.

Clinton is to NAFTA as Obama is to Wright?

2008-03-20T23:38:07Z

The story is: when Senator Clinton was First Lady, she worried about NAFTA, but said nothing in public. On balance, she thought the administration deserved her support, and she thought that, in her complicated position, that support could only be given by keeping her disagreements private.
The story is: when Senator Obama sat in a pew at Trinity, he worried about some elements of the sermons, but said nothing in public. On balance, he thought the church deserved her support, and he thought that, in his complicated position, that support could only be given by keeping his disagreements private.
She does not owe us a complete description of every conversation with her husband--not even of the ones about politics.
He does not owe us a complete description of every discussion with his pastor--not even of the ones about politics.
I believe them both on these issues, and respect their choices.

Ugly Clinton Subliminal Message? It's Easy to Prove or Disprove

2008-03-10T04:39:18Z

Senator Clinton can be easily cleared--or convicted--on one subliminal message question. The letters "nig" appear about 11 seconds into her "3 a.m." advertisement, on the pajamas of a sleeping child. That film is stock footage shot eight years ago. It existed before the Clinton campaign used it. There are copies the campaign does not control. If the letters "nig" are in those older copies, the whole issue is a tempest in a teapot. If they were added for the Clinton ad, her campaign ends immediately. To me, that's news worth exploring. Does anyone know how to hunt down the stock video footage?