As soon as Senator Clinton's FEC form showed up on the FEC site, people started asking if the $10.3 million in debt included the $5 million she owes herself.

No, it doesn't.

If you download the itemized debt list, the top debts are $4.6 million to Penn, $1.2 million to The Spoken Hub phone bank,  $956 thousand to MSHC Partners (printing), and $538 to Grunwald.

So the arithmetic is $8 million on hand, $10.3 million owed to others, $5 million owed to herself, and bottom line is -$7.3 million.

Accountants call that being in the red. 

Her creditors may trust her to pay them, but that doesn't put the campaign in the black.

The campaign may have a plan of how they'll pay up later, but that doesn't put them in the black.  If you don't have the assets to pay your debts, you're in the red.

When Senator Obama has a majority of all possible pledged delegates, he's won.  The super-delegates who don't want to call the election themselves will get on board, and it'll be over.

So it's worth noting that he only needs 212 to get to a pledged majority. Senator Clinton needs 378.

Suppose she takes 55% of the delegates in Pennsylvania, and then averages that margin in the next six races: Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon.  She still loses the race.

A 45% average in those races will give him those 212 when we wake up on May 21st, it will be clear that he's won.