We need Bill, running a fabulous foundation that does mighty work on mighty issues, using all his connections to make things happen that can't be done from inside government.
And we need Hillary in the Senate.  We need someone as tenacious on health care as she's been in this race.  We don't need either one of them tethered to an Obama administration's talking points, having to support policy they don't get to define.
 Somehow, the Kennedy news helped me remember that, outside this race, both of them are positioned to play unique roles that I deeply admire.  V.P. would be a waste of her talents and his.

The poll says:

Clinton (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%
Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 44%

Sample size: 1,323 registered voters. Margin of error: ±3%

That's the news that's about November.

That's the news that's about changing the party in power.  That's the news about getting serious about ending Iraq, winning in Afghanistan, not lunging into Iran, moving hard toward green energy, and getting meaningful action on health.

Sadly, the TPM headline is about a microtrend in the primary, just the way Karl Rove and Marc Penn would spin it.  Between two Democrats, working class white voters prefer Clinton by a wide margin. It's true. It's a good signal on where Obama could do constructive work to widen his lead in November.  It's a good indication of how the Clinton endorsements will be valuable.

But it is not the main news, not at all, not at all, not at all.

The main news from this poll is that both Democratic candidates are doing well against the Republican.

As soon as Senator Clinton's FEC form showed up on the FEC site, people started asking if the $10.3 million in debt included the $5 million she owes herself.

No, it doesn't.

If you download the itemized debt list, the top debts are $4.6 million to Penn, $1.2 million to The Spoken Hub phone bank,  $956 thousand to MSHC Partners (printing), and $538 to Grunwald.

So the arithmetic is $8 million on hand, $10.3 million owed to others, $5 million owed to herself, and bottom line is -$7.3 million.

Accountants call that being in the red. 

Her creditors may trust her to pay them, but that doesn't put the campaign in the black.

The campaign may have a plan of how they'll pay up later, but that doesn't put them in the black.  If you don't have the assets to pay your debts, you're in the red.

When Senator Obama has a majority of all possible pledged delegates, he's won.  The super-delegates who don't want to call the election themselves will get on board, and it'll be over.

So it's worth noting that he only needs 212 to get to a pledged majority. Senator Clinton needs 378.

Suppose she takes 55% of the delegates in Pennsylvania, and then averages that margin in the next six races: Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon.  She still loses the race.

A 45% average in those races will give him those 212 when we wake up on May 21st, it will be clear that he's won.

Check out http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/990000/images/_992299_hill_bill_yassr300.jpg.  Hillary Clinton with a known terrorist. I'm sure she'll stay he'd stopped being a terrorist.  I say she gave the guy the prestige of the First Family by appearing with him.  And I say that's way more than Barack Obama ever did for Bill Ayers.

Mind, I think she was right to be in that photo. It's part of how peace gets made.   But I'm tired of the hypocrisy and ready to take on Bush and McCain.

At the debate, Gibson is just determined that there are "a whole lot" of people making over $100K. The issue is whether income over $100K should be exempt from Social Security and Medicare taxes.

At http://pubdb3.census.gov/macro/032007/perinc/new01_001.htm, the Census Bureau reports on its 2006 survey findings on individual income.

The report shows 208.5 million people with income, of whom 12.4 million have income $100,000 or above.  That's less than   6% of the total. It's the wealthiest 1/16th of the population.

The current deal is that money is taken out of everyone's paycheck up to the cut off. That means all of us take home a bit less, and the money's set aside to pay benefits to retirees and the disabled.  

Except, once you individually earn more than $100,000 a year, the tax stops. You get a free ride on the rest on what you earn. 

Obama's proposal is to cancel the free ride on pay over $100,000.

If Gibson can't see that those folks are privileged, does that maybe make him an elitist?

Obama is restating what Springsteen told us years ago.

Well my daddy come on the Ohio works

When he come home from world war two

Now the yards just scrap and rubble

He said, "Them big boys did what Hitler couldn't do"

These mills they built the tanks and bombs

That won this country's wars

We sent our sons to Korea and Vietnam

Now we're wondering what they were dyin' for



Here in Youngstown

Here in Youngstown

My sweet Jenny, I'm sinkin' down

Here darlin' in Youngstown



From the Monongaleh valley

To the Mesabi iron range

To the coal mines of Appalacchia

The story's always the same

Seven-hundred tons of metal a day

Now sir you tell me the world's changed

Once I made you rich enough

Rich enough to forget my name

The poets have known for years, and it's good to finally have a leader willing to look it in the eye.

Check out the details at http://polwatchers.typepad.com/pol_watchers/.
 Preston-Osborne is an in-state firm with a credible reputation and ties to the Democratic party.

The basic findings:

• Clinton 56/Obama 25

• McCain 53 /Clinton 42

• McCain 60 /Obama 29

That makes sense for my adopted home state as of today.

Obama campaigning has begun mainly in the last week, so I expect he'll gain some primary points in the coming weeks and some general election points in the coming months.

The e-mail announcement from Maggie Williams says both the  man and the firm will still be polling and advising.  He's just not the Grand Poobah of Strategy any more.

The story is: when Senator Clinton was First Lady, she worried about NAFTA, but said nothing in public.  On balance, she thought the administration deserved her support, and she thought that, in her complicated position, that support could only be given by keeping her disagreements private.
The story is: when Senator Obama sat in a pew at Trinity, he worried about some elements of the sermons, but said nothing in public.  On balance, he thought the church deserved her support, and he thought that, in his complicated position, that support could only be given by keeping his disagreements private.
She does not owe us a complete description of every conversation with her husband--not even of the ones about politics.  
He does not owe us a complete description of every discussion with his pastor--not even of the ones about politics.
I believe them both on these issues, and respect their choices.

Senator Clinton can be easily cleared--or convicted--on one subliminal message question.
The letters "nig" appear about 11 seconds into her "3 a.m." advertisement, on the pajamas of a sleeping child.
That film is stock footage shot eight years ago. It existed before the Clinton campaign used it. There are copies the campaign does not control.
If the letters "nig" are in those older copies, the whole issue is a tempest in a teapot.
If they were added for the Clinton ad, her campaign ends immediately.
To me, that's news worth exploring. Does anyone know how to hunt down the stock video footage?