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Dear Mr. President: Where's The Vision Thing


Well, it's done and President Obama's stimulus package is finally a fait accompli, but in its current form, I'm none too happy about it. Yes, there's talk about coming back to take another bite at this apple soon enough, so some or all of my concerns may be rendered moot, but the fine print on this thing leaves something to be desired, at least in my estimation. For one, I think the infrastructure aspect of it is far too meager. I also believe a we choose to put a man on the moon in this decade sort of speech was in order. And in keeping with that, I think the President has failed to frame his goals within an overarching vision, one that says, as part of our long range economic goals, we intend to get this country out of debt. It took us twenty years to create this untenable debt burden, beginning ironically enough when Reagan cooked up his'86 Bush-like tax boondoggle for the rich. It is not unreasonable to think our society could extricate itself from this mess in a similar amount of time. It is unthinkable to me that we wouldn't try. It is unforgiveable that the rich wouldn't be willing to pay their fair share. Lopping the highest tax rate from 70% to 35% is about all you need to know about the rich getting richer and poor getting poorer over the last twenty years.

 

Back to the stimulus package, I would like to address my reasoning about the infrastructure issue first off. In 1991, the last time our economy tanked on this devastating level, I was forced through hard times to relocate from LA to Seattle. Everything in my life had fallen to pieces. I had lost two homes and arrived in Seattle the day before Halloween, only to be greeted by an eighty mile an hour wind storm. As I waited for the roof of my final piece of property to spin off into the Puget Sound, I thought, maybe I should have planned this out a little better. You know, show up in the spring, when the weather and general conditions are a bit more welcoming? Given the economic devastation I had just experienced in California, it seemed like a lousy idea to be pulling into town with winter bearing down. However, I soon learned the state of Washington had invested $4 billion dollars in an infrastructure stimulus plan and the effect on the state was nothing short of miraculous. Everywhere you went, there were huge public works in progress, bridges going up, water works, that sort of thing. The city of Seattle was a beehive of activity. In contrast, when I went down south for the holidays the following year, it was like a neutron bomb had gone off. An entire region seemed to have been abandoned. What people were left walking around had fear in their eyes.

 

To put the 1992 Washington state stimulus plan into perspective, it equated to roughly two thousand dollars for every man, woman and child in the state. Extrapolate those figures onto a national level and we're talking $650 billion dollars for infrastructure alone. Oddly enough, I heard Paul Krugman making a point along these very lines on a talking head show a few weeks back, asserting that there were no magical powers ascribed to wars for ending depressions. Roosevelt could have easily ended the Great Depression before World War II. It was all a matter of scope and will. Once the federal government felt compelled to invest sufficient funds, the Great Depression disappeared. When queried how much Krugman thought was necessary in the present case for an infrastructure investment alone, he suggested somewhere between $600 and $800 billion. My point exactly.

 

Unfortunately, to my way of thinking, President Obama and his team have muddied the water by lumping together what are now those famous "shovel ready" infrastructure projects with a plethora of other budgetary concerns, opening their flank up to what would otherwise be shameless Republican archery fire. Consider the Republican's facing a straight $600, $700 billion infrastructure package, with a plan to build bridges, roads, schools and hospitals. It would have put the right wing's feet to the fire and forced them to show their true colors. Instead, Obama has given them a chance to frame his stimulus plan as just one more ho hum pork barrel bill, and the polls tell the story. The President remains enormously popular. His bill is not.

 

Again, part of the problem in my estimation is that President Obama has surrounded himself with men and women whose minds were baked in the same academic mold, in fact some of very Wall Street people who helped get us into this mess in the first place. No one doubts their smarts, but it would seem they are incapable of understanding the mindset of the average Joe and Jane on the street. Simply put, we're never going to fix this mess on paper. As I witnessed in Washington back in the early nineties, when people see public works going up everywhere, when they see the unemployed going to work on a massive scale, a sense of confidence sets in. They go ahead with that home remodel. They buy the new car. They buy the new washer and dryer. That was the difference between Washington and California during that period, and it was stark.

 

Fast forward to today. People are scared again, and they will not cut loose with their money as long as the fear of everything going south remains. And a $500 rebate check is not going to unlock those apprehensions. We need millions and millions of jobs, on a WPA scale, creating a sense in people's minds that everything's going to be okay. Of course, as Secretary Geithner so aptly pointed out in his news conference on Tuesday, the banks and lending institutions in general must be addressed, and the mortgage meltdown has to be a part of any long term strategy. I only wish Obama had made this first bite strictly about infrastructure investment. I think it would have been a much cleaner bill.

 

With all that said, I feel the greatest missed opportunity here is a failure to frame this enormous government expenditure within a broader vision. Where are we going with all this, President Obama, I want to ask? How about saying loud and clear, we're going to use this challenge to turn America green in ten years. According to all reliable scientific data, we have roughly that long before the entire world goes over a precipice. Again, this willingness to spend trillions of dollars is a once in a lifetime opportunity, and what better time to marshal our public will towards that end. This is no time to be nibbling around the edges. A great era of technological ingenuity is before us, which lends itself to a once in a lifetime opportunity to rebuild our manufacturing base, which lends itself to providing a viable framework from which to get this country out of debt. It seems to me it's President Obama's responsibility to stir the public's imagination and support on this sort of sweeping level. Rather than allowing this issue to be debated over condoms and sex education, rather than confronting the monumental problems our nation faces piecemeal, rather than erring on the side of caution, I, for one, want Obama to use this opportunity to galvanize our nation as Roosevelt did at the start of World War II. In that instance, the government had Detroit churning out tanks within three months. Why can't we have Detroit churning out 100 MPG vehicles within a year. It seems to me, once we frame the debate in these terms, the Republicans will be left to pitch in, shut up or eat their young.


24 Comments

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I agree with you on virtually every broad point. Even down to the moonshot energy/environmental policy, which I blogged on myself a short while back.

The vision thing interests me particularly. I don't believe Obama suffers from a lack of vision. I think the times we live in make a Kennedyesque moonshot extremely difficult to pull off. I also think his political smarts tend to favor the pragmatic solution over the bold pronouncement.

Kennedy had Sputnik and the Russian threat to rally people around his vision of putting an American on the moon. Today, perceptions of the need for a realistic energy policy wax and wane with the price of oil. Environmental sustainability, which had been gaining significant traction in the public consciousness, has been buried by the economy. Massive investment in traditional infrastructure, although necessary, lacks cachet.

Then there's Obama's political reality. Although he appears to have bulletproof Congressional majorities, I think his play for bipartisanship and resulting compromise on the stimulus bill reflects the fact that he simply did not have enough Senate votes to pass the plan he originally envisioned. He also sought to solidify his mandate by getting at least enough Republican support to be able to save his political capital for when he really needed it.

Finally, I think it comes down to the fact that people have much shorter attention span, are much more fragmented demographically and politically, and live in a much more complex and nuanced world. The moonshot, the big bet, defies nuance.

Of course, three weeks is not a lot of time, particularly for a presidency thrust into multiple crisis straight out of inauguration day.

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Brilliant. Thanks. Should be a stand alone post.

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Spot on.

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"I don't believe Obama suffers from a lack of vision."

What is your evidence of his great vision?

I've read that he's a "visionary minimalist". It sounded accurate at the time.

That could mean he's a visionary who takes a minimalist approach to government, or it could mean that he's a pragmatist without a large specific vision. I've also read that he tends to be an incrementalist and risk averse.

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I didn't say he had a "great vision." I said he didn't suffer from a lack of it.

The absence of vision is myopia, and nothing I have seen, heard or read by or about the man suggests that he is myopic.

If Kennedy's call to put a man on the moon in ten years is visionary, than so is Obama's call to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.

I think Obama is an exceptionally skilled politician, perhaps the best of my generation -- including Clinton. Politics breeds pragmatism, which tempers any instinct to take the long view. Yet that long view is there. To me, it is most clearly on display in Obama's vision of post-partisan government, founded on a reinvigorated democracy driven by engaged citizens.

I have no idea what "visionary minimalist" means, by the way. It sounds like gibberish.


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I gave two definitions to choose from. ??

He might not suffer, but if he doesn't have great vision then he lacks vision. I hope he's as good for the country as your belief in him as a politician.

"reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050"

Somehow that doesn't strike me as vision of his own, but at least it's an idea which Gore would approve of.

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Ok. Thanks.

So vision is by definition "great," or it's not a vision at all? My turn to ask you for some examples to support this line of reasoning.


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uh, no.

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"reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050"

It seems that this doesn't rate as a great vision because you don't agree with it. If that's the case, we're arguing ourselves into a swamp.

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It's not his vision, it's Gore's vision.

Sheesh.

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Sheesh.

I didn't know that visions had to be proprietary to be legitimate. Thanks for illuminating me.

You still haven't given me any examples of "real" vision by your definition.

Mine is simple: the ability to picture a future state. Some visions are unique, like Ford's automobile for the masses. Some are less so, like Jobs and Wozniak's people-friendly computing, but become audacious in their execution.

I'd say picturing a future state where man essentially eliminates greenhouse gas production constitutes a vision. Gore has that vision. So do others. What's your point?

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"I don't believe Obama suffers from a lack of vision."

You haven't presented any evidence that he has great vision. If he doesn't have great vision, he has a lack of vision. Borrowing Gore's vision is like a blind person getting navigation help from someone else. My comment mentioned "visionary minimalist" to point to a counter view. You ignored the definitions, then seem to have got them.

I thought it was simple and obvious, but evidently it's very important to you to yak about.

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I never purported to present any evidence that Obama has great vision. I said he doesn't suffer from a lack of it.

I provided two specific examples of vision gathered from what the man has said and written. You denied the first on the basis that it was not original, although there is nothing in the concept of vision that implies originality. You never acknowledged the second.

Most people who get out of bed in the morning with some sense of purpose have vision. Say my purpose in life is to give my children a better life than I have. My vision might be to see them graduate from college. You'll doubtless find this quaint and pedestrian, and respond with more literary eyerolling, petulant sheeshing, and more empty (and non-reflexive, by the way) phrases like Visionary Minimalist. Whatever.

I might add that "great" vision is judged in hindsight, and is ultimately inseparable from visionary's ability to act on it. If Ford had never come up with the assembly line and interchangeable parts, his vision of a car for the common man might never have been realized and he might be remembered today, if at all, as just another stuffed shirt businessman. If Obama administration policies become the building blocks to an environmentally sustainable society fifty years hence, our children will doubtless call him a visionary. Al Gore, too.

You know, eds, these arguments would be really enjoyable if you didn't put quite so much energy into trying to make me feel stupid. As it is, I grow weary defending myself from your massive intellect. Peace.

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Sorry it comes off that way. I think we got off on the proverbial wrong foot.

To lack vision doesn't mean to be blind. Having some vision such as you noted is still a lack of vision (and it's pretty general). Borrowing other people's ideas is fine, but it doesn't amount to having your own forward looking ideas.

No big deal, I was originally curious about what you think Obama's vision strong points are. I accept one, didn't accept the other and said why.

Peace to you too.

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Apologize for going over the top. It was a long, bad day.

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Thanks for your thoughtful comments, and your point on the "public will" issue is well taken. And let's give Obama credit where credit is due. The more I read about Lincoln, the more I think the two men are cut from a similar mold: far-sighted, but cautious and pragmatic. It seems to me a fair debate to have. Do you stick your neck out, given the stakes, or do proceed incrementally? For me, on that score, the lost opportunities of the Clinton years come to mind, and I just don't know if we have much time to screw around anymore. Then again, maybe that's why Obama's President, and I'm not. And above all else, I'm so thankful this intelligent, caring and enlightened individual is our President, I have a great peace of mind behind all these pesky issues. By the way, love your handle. Yellow Submarine brings back many, many fond memories. You don't look bluish...What a gas it was...

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It is easy to forget that he is a one-term US senator who first walked through the doors of the Oval Office three weeks ago. Also that his election night margin came partly from disgust with the previous administration, and partly from a tanking economy that was associated (along with his opponent) with the previous administration.

By my reckoning, Obama at the moment has little or no mandate for most of his agenda. I think, with or without Daschle, he has a shot at implementing at least a portion of his health care plan. I hope he manages to round up the political capital to tackle the other big ones -- education, energy and the environment. Man, we sure need to do something and fast. Particularly in environmental policy.

Enthusiastic second on "intelligent, caring and enlightened."

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I appreciate the earnestness, but there is a thing called political reality that the current President must deal with. It is not enough to be the greatest statesman, spokesman, leader, whatever without the national will to support such endeavors, but the will is not their yet. FDR came in after 4 years of Depression and 25% unemployment and he still had a long up and down struggle for his programs. You mention WWII ending the Depression, and your answer is provided. The political will was forced by the war, not the other way around. Same as the moon shot, and that was in a time of economic ascendency.

The new administration is 3 weeks old. There are so many challenges on so many fronts, and it will take some time to see which directions Obama will chose to head in.

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Agreed on the time issue. Give the man a chance, but if the staggering debt under which we operate, and the issue of global warming are not urgent enough to mobilize our public will, I don't know what possibly could. As Obama was able to inspire people during the campaign, I think he is completely capable of framing the particulars into a broader vision, and carry the public with him. Per my reply to bluemeanie, I have come to accept Obama as cautious, which has it's upside, but also its downside. Anyway, thanks for taking the time to post a thoughtful comment.

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Paradoxically, I am less willing to give this man a chance at the same time I would quarrel with: " if the staggering debt under which we operate, and the issue of global warming are not urgent enough to mobilize our public will, I don't know what possibly could." I am there, you are there and the rest of the public is getting there but not there yet. What I worry about, is this mounting public anget that the news media seems not to catch at all will soon be directed at Obama and his administration. Attitudes tend to change very quickly in times of severe crisis and we will be in this economic crisis for many years (Gordon Brown in England used a 15 year frame). There is an interesting post by Steve Fraser in Tomdispatch:

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175032/steve_fraser_locked_into_the_bailout_state

dealing with the growing anger (at corporate bigwigs)

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You don't see the 'vision' of Obama's 'plan'??

How blind can you be? All you have to do is look south to Cuba. Cuba is Obama's model.

That fear you see in the eyes of those people in Seattle ain't nothing. You ought to see the fear in the eyes of the people in Havana. But they've always been better off than we will be.

All they had to do was risk their lives on a 90 mile boat ride braving machine gun fire from Castro's gunboats. When Marxism in imposed here, there will be nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.

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At least government investments will be for all the people rather than just the corporations and the rich. There isn't anything Marxist about our current government. Fascist? I'll buy that and our modern version was ushered in by Saint Ronnie of Simi Valley and continued under Arkansas Bill, but is hardly unprecedented in American history to have special interests trump both common sense and our national interests.

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Excellent post, thoughtful and perceptive.

Here's my quick 'two cents':

We have an immediate, essentially tactical problem: Get the economy working again. If that doesn't happen at some nearby point, nothing else will matter.

We also have a larger, longer-range structural (strategic, perhap?) problem: What we HOPE will help in the short-term (ie, deficit pump-priming)actually makes our longer-term problem more severe by increasing debt. NO MATTER! We must survive NOW, to get to a place where we again have the luxury of thinking further down the road. That's really an inexcusable shame, but that's where we're at.

I agree 100% that we need a tangible sense TODAY of where that longer-term roadmap might lead. That is perhaps the only way we can force ourselves to accept the immediate crisis in a reasonably constructive spirit, and focus ourselves on the hope of something much better down the road.

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Keith O introduced Obama for his Lincoln Address and when he said and now I present to you the President of the United States, Barack Obama, I get shivers.

I dont care. The man has vision if I think he does.

So there!!!!

hahahhahahahah

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