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Week of November 2, 2008 - November 8, 2008

Gay rights hopes not yet dead in California???


The California Supreme Court is being asked to throw out Prop. 8 as having exceeded state constitutional bounds for the degree of its reach. Stay tuned, this thing could play out for months if not years; a possible scenario, and story link, is on my personal blog.

Obama the neolib?


Today's Bloomberg story about the possibility of Clinton retread Larry Summers returning to the Treasury was nothing new to me.

At my blog, I have already covered the Summers possibility, along with Hagel at Defense and Kerry at State, more than two weeks ago, as well as the possibility of retaining Paulson more than a month ago. Geithner and others, including Gene Sperling, were already getting mentions weeks ago; another related post is here.

So, it's Clinton 2.0, it looks like, at least in fiscal and monetary policy.

Nothing new, unless the "change" meme remains, for many, a blank slate on which to project beliefs that Obama will actually be more liberal than he is. Remember, this is the same Obama who, already in 2000, called for a united Jerusalem to be the capital of Israel, and that was just at the political pander level of running for a House seat.


Prop. 8 sadly is likely to win


Per exit polls, it looks like at least some African-American ticket splitters are part of the cause. And, despite Obama cutting a no on 8 spot, his presence in Yes on 8 ads certainly is a case of petard hoisting, political-style.

Of course, IMO, Gavin Newsom was no help with his "in your face" style.  And the Mormons outspent even (orthodox) Christians in opposition.

Unless late votes in LA make a major swing, this is over. Details and analysis here.

Update, 4:30 a.m. Central time:
LA voters have closed the gap somewhat, but most  the county is reported while, besides the OC, the rest of the yes-leaning Southland still has precincts outstanding. Updated details on my blog.

This all said, I doubt the election can be called before 6 a.m. my time, if then.

Eric Kleefeld, with tongue in cheek, suggests the "Stevens effect" to describe Alaskan elections, since it appears we can retire the Bradley effect.

More seriously, given that Prop. 8 was down 17 points in polls early in the campaign, I wonder if we shouldn't talk about an equivalent to the Bradley effect on this issue.
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socraticgadfly

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