Post of my comment made under this post:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/so-how-does-obama-graciously-n.php

I don't buy that he [Obama] picks Webb [for the VP slot]. The novels he wrote with fictional rape scenes and other sexual scenes were panned for being misogynistic. Talk about turning off women voters in a race where a woman was denied the 'inevitable' nomination. But, I believe that Webb's fellow Virginian, Gov. Tim Kaine, would make a great VP. Very religious background (former missionary:Community organizing) and bona fide progressive fiscal policies. He would carry VA for certain and maybe puts the blue wave within reach of NC/TX in the general election. That's to say nothing of MO/CO/IA/WI/OH/FL. To me, a Virginian (living now in NY), Kaine is a no brainer.

I happen to suspect that Obama is looking for a running mate that shares his frame of mind: pragmatic, progressive, and a record of working for consensus on progressive policies, which fits in Obama's message of unification and a common national purpose. He's not looking for branding types: hawkish, religious, fiscal conservative, religion or race. That would undermine the very premise of his candidacy, which is that a unified national purpose is not acheived by the same approach to politics. Of course, this is itself political, the new kind.

I also recall that prior to the VA primary, there were numerous articles on the observation that the two of them had never met prior, but soon connected strongly, sharing 'war stories' about their shared politics. I think their two backgrounds- Kaine doing missionary work and Obama doing community organizing- indicates they share a common outlook on creating consensus around progressive policies. I'm just connecting dots because there are dots to connect, but it won't be for loss of logic.

Please comment on other tea leaf observations in the media.

Holy Shit

Lake County: 70% Obama lead would erase gap

Indianapolis went for Obama 67%

Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry for Obama.

OK- BHO: 3; HRC: 1; Undecided 6.

http://newsok.com/article/3233776/1208941411

I present this post as a preferred place to publicize prognostications, prognoses, portents, and predictions. Parse posts politely. 


Please press “RECOMMEND THIS” for plenty of previews throughout the day.

Little Fish says that the following link will take you to some interesting figures on electoral outcomes of contests to date. The narrative is frustratingly 'on the fence' but the data is nutritious.

The figures -- surprise surprise-- could be used to buttress just about any electability argument put forth by either campaign. However, the most interesting figure is towards the bottom-

52% of the votes to date were were cast in 16 *open* primaries, of which 11 were carried by Obama.


Of all open primaries, Obama is ahead, 51 to 44%.


Of all open primaries, his margin is 1,051,501.

This is perhaps the best data so far indicating how either candidate would fare in the GE.

At first glance this appears to fortify BHO's argument that he catches more independent and cross-over votes than HRC. In closed primaries, that figure reverses, giving an advantage to HRC- portending a particularly steep slope for BHO in PA.

Peace

... and disenchants half the democratic base in the process. If for some reason Hill manages to get the nomination from her gutter position, does Bloomberg jump in?

Anyone know what the registration deadlines for independent candidates are for the various states?

Polls close at the following times, all Eastern:

VT: 7:00
OH: 7:30
TX: 8:00
RI: 9:00

Expect a very late night for OH results- based on weather, potential extended hours based on inclement weather, and tallying protocols in certain urban locations. I think TX results will be known much earlier than OH, but similarly late.

To fellow Americans, blog readers, and the interested public:

On the matter of TN GOP press release on Obama and Antisemitism

If you are genuinely concerned about promoting a healthy body politic, then I request that we cease totting the "THIS-IS-SO-PREDICTABLE" argument. This is tacit admission that such tactics are acceptable. When confronted with bullies and political low-lifes, tacit disapproval is insufficient. This must cease.

The press release is 3 things, and three things only: DISGUSTING, SHAMEFUL, and OBSCENE. In any other setting, such speech would be censured (not censored) and rebuked.

As a gesture of solidarity against the GOPs press release, I request that any comments to this post be signed with your full name and location. Thank you.

Respectfully,
Steven Mikulencak
Saratoga Springs, New York

If I and 26 retiring republicans are reading the same wall, then the writing says, “Look out in November.” What coattails could we expect to see in November, if BHO is the nominee? Might we witness a congressional washout of historical proportions? Our most recent benchmark, 1994, resulted in a 10 percent (+/-) turnover in House seats, which remains a (sadly) stunning figure. If BHO sticks to form and his register of the American mood continues on the mark, I believe we may be witnessing the early stages of incumbency wipeouts as great or greater than 1994.

 

During an election cycle in which the easy political reference points and rules are straining, if not outright failing, to characterize this truly remarkable year, what reference points do we have? The 2006 congressional turnovers are informative, but I strongly suspect (read: assert) that it is too weak of a narrative to describe the awesome tectonics of this election cycle. Indeed, Iraq and the recession are toxic enough for the Republicans, but what may supercede such issues is the more generalized feeling of a referendum on governance itself- openness, competency, integrity, and good-faith compromise.

 

Keep in mind that republican retirements were announced before Obama’s headline grabbing performances. I wonder which other incumbents are second-guessing another term, and does an BHO candidacy portend another wave of announcements. My guess is yes.