Iraq the Non-State
Iraq has ceased to be a country. The Sunnis have left the "government", which couldn't agree on anything important anyway, and couldn't govern.
Don't let the term "failed state" scare you anymore: we're there. Ordinary Iraqis cannot agree on anything that matters and Iraq is incapable of governing itself.
The respite for our forces obtained by arming local militias is almost certain to be temporary. There is no respite for ordinary Iraqis, in spite of what is being said now. Think about it: one hate killing in the US makes national news for a week. In Iraq, we're talking about a decrease from many 10's to a few 10's a day. In fact, by arming local power centers over the objections of the central government, it can be fairly said that we are simply hastening or validating (take your pick) the disintegration of Iraq-the-country.
The policy wonks don't get it: facts must dictate policy, and the relevant facts in Iraq change. Anyone who is providing the same policy prescription now that they touted in 2003, or for that matter 2006, is doing the country a disservice.
Some facts:
-- A Viceroy didn't work
-- Democracy (elections) didn't work
-- A focus on training the Iraqi security forces didn't work
-- Nothing economic has worked
Maybe someone out there smarter than me understands why we think 160,000 of our soldiers can change this dysfunction, because I sure don't understand it.
It's simple.
We're not there to help the Iraqi's.
We are there to kill them and take their stuff.
August 1, 2007 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Valdron:
The only stuff worth taking is the oil, unless you want to haul off millions of tons of ancient mud in the form of a ziggurat or two.
We haven't done very well as thieves - the Iraqis themselves are far better at stealing their patrimony.
I think we're there because we made a huge mistake and have engaged in serious grasping for some sane rationale for staying there ever since.
August 1, 2007 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very true, the global act of theft and domination turned out to be incredibly bungled. But what do you expect?
August 2, 2007 7:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Iraq is going to have a bloody civil war. It's inevitable at this point. We're still seeing dozens of people blown up every day, and in that part of the world -- revenge is a religious duty. Too many people have died now for any hope of peace to break out.
The war will not just be Shia/Sunni. Indeed, rival Shiite groups are already jockeying for position in the Basra area and a British pullout will be the signal to begin the battle for control of Iraq's southern oil fields.
The Kurds will come out of this clear winners. They will drive the Sunnis out of Kirkuk, and control that oil, which will add to an already flourishing Iraqi Kurdistan. The only thing they have to worry about is Turkey, and they can keep them at bay by inviting the US to keep bases in Kurdistan. Turkey would have a hard time invading with our troops there.
August 1, 2007 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, the Kurds will ethnically cleanse Kirkuk. And then its on to dismembering Turkey and Iran for the glory of greater Kurdistan. And all they need is for American troops to start dying in large numbers on their behalf.
Right.
August 2, 2007 7:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
One thing that I see is a sort of rolling partition. Just like Bosnia, we will wake up one day and realize that the Biden plan didn't require our sign-off: it happened without our input.
I'd say we're providing some encouragement by arming all parties to the partition, making it less likely that any one group will dominate the others, but de facto partition might have happened anyway.
August 2, 2007 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
it may remain an unofficial partition. Some form of nat'l government will remain, but it will be weak. the Kurds won't declare a state of their own -- that would undo all the progress they've made, but sort of like Taiwan, which everyone pretends is not really it's own sovereign nation, there will be a lot of winking and nodding going on.
August 2, 2007 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let's not be modest. America has done nothing but throw gasoline on the fire.
August 2, 2007 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem with partition is that everyone will be dissatisfied. I see a situation like the Balkans, a perennial flash point. Sunnis won't get enough money (oil). Arabs or Turkmen will want a chunk of Kirkuk/Tel Afaar. The Shia will want Samarra, or at least want the Golden Mosque. Nobody will want to be pushed out of Baghdad.
If violence is why we stay, we will be there a long, long time.
August 2, 2007 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink