What will Iraq look like in 2010?
Ten days ago I moderated a panel at Princeton Reunions entitled: Iraq in 2010. Each of the four panelists were given 10 minutes to be as direct as possible on what Iraq would be likely to look like in 2010. A former Army ranger gave us a fairly positive outlook, which I will try to get from him. But Ray Close, a retired CIA Arabist who spent virtually his entire career in the field, offered the following prognosis. Bear in mind that he only had 10 minutes and hence had to omit lots of nuances and possibilities; nevertheless, it is sobering reading.
"I see the United States facing a short list of no less that EIGHT other real and potential crises in the region --- in addition to the IRAQ situation --- that are all part of the same overall picture, and all of which could contribute significantly to the downward spiral that I foresee for that part of the world. These include some existing crises that I think cannot be dealt with successfully by the United States in the next few years, and which will therefore contribute to our failure to bring the Iraq situation to a satisfactory conclusion in time to meet the 2010 analytical timeframe that we have set for ourselves in today’s discussion.
