I'm starting to change my mind about the "Obama needs to get tough and attack Hillary" meme. For one thing, this view is in response to the "Hillary got a last minute surge of support because of negative ads in Ohio and Texas" meme, and I'm not sure that's actually accurate. When you look at focus group data on the red phone ad (sorry I can't remember where I saw this) undecided voters actually had a strong negative reaction to it. I have a different explanation for the sudden Hillary surge in the days before Texas and Ohio: the media started writing her obituary. People in the Democratic base have been rooting for Hillary for almost 16 years now. For all that time, her successes have been the successes of the party; Democrats have been identifying with her accomplishments and failures, in the same way that we identify with the accomplishments or failures of, say, David Ortiz. That identification I think is strongest among people who don't pay that close attention to politics, Democrats who look at politics through an "our team" versus "their team" lens, and especially women, who on a very personal level identify with Hillary's struggles as a woman trying to be successfull in a man's world.

What's happening now is like a bad breakup between Clintons and Democratic voters. You know the way you can want to break up with a girl, think it's the right move, have someone better lined up - and then all of a sudden, once you're actually halfway through ending it, you start to think about how great they were, how you had such great times together, etc. A solid percentage - I think a majority - of Democrats want to move on past the garbage of the Clinton years. But once it starts to seem like that is actually happening, once Hillary starts to fade a bit from the public spotlight, the story becomes "The End of Clinton" and voters immediately sympathize with her and her support rises. That's what happened in New Hampshire, and I think to a lesser degree that's what happened in Ohio and Texas.

I know people are going to say that I'm trying to explain away Hillary's support, and I suppose in part I am, but I do have some respect for the value of loyalty. I don't personally feel any, because I never liked the Clintons, but I respect the fact that some people do.Another way of putting this I suppose is "buyers remorse" or doubts about Obama. But I don't think the doubts really are about Obama. I think the doubts are about leaving Hillary behind.

If I'm right about this, then the last thing Obama should do is go negative. In fact, Obama should do the reverse; he should show respect and admiration for Hillary's time of service, which is really showing respect and admiration for Hillary's supporters. Maybe even take a shot at somebody for making sexist charges against Hillary. I don't think he has anything to lose, because I don't actually think Hillary has a shot at the nomination at this point - I think superdelegates are ultimately going to decide this thing, and they are going to decide it for Obama. They know he is in the interest of the party.

Of course, if I'm right, then the last thing Hillary should do is continue to go negative, which is the lesson that she learned from those victories.