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Snake-oil snakepit


"Always keep an open mind, but not so open that your brains fall out."

- Albert Einstein

After years in the hocus-pocus fantasy land of the Bay Area, where the margin separating straitjacket dementia from New-Age revelation is virtually nonexistent, I discovered in the mid-'90s Michael Shermer's Skeptic magazine. And it saved, if not my life, then certainly my sanity. 

Every issue investigates each wild assertion, silly delusion and crackpot development in what has become, downwind of '60s counterculture, an ever-rolling medicine show of popularly accepted "counter-reality". By the last decade of the 20th century, some medical plans offered deductables for aromatherapy, and a friend of mine is convinced, through years of "holistic analysis", that many of his emotional problems are caused by bad spiritual vibes emanating from past lives of old girlfriends. If that's true, he's damn lucky to have avoided dating the reincarnation of Lizzie Borden.

Shermer, a science historian who recruits some of the world's top researchers to contribute articles, has been at this "candle in the dark" business some time. No better summation of his brand of scientific skepticism exists outside his "Skeptic's Manifesto" in his book Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other Confusions of Our Time:

Modern skepticism is embodied in the scientific method, which involves gathering data to test natural explanations for natural phenomena. A claim becomes factual when it is confirmed to such an extent that it would be reasonable to offer temporary agreement. But all facts in science are provisional and subject to challenge, and therefore skepticism is a method leading to provisional conclusions... The key to skepticism is to navigate the treacherous straits between "know nothing" skepticism and "anything goes" credulity by continuously and vigorously applying the methods of science.

At the heart of his book, it's Shermer's proposal that we believe in things unseen because such superstition simplifies explanation and comforts us. "God works in mysterious ways" can be the answer to any fortune or calamity, any indescribable loss - even the death of a child. I've long thought people still believe a huge conspiracy/coverup surrounds the assassination of President Kennedy because, perversely, it's the most comforting scenario. Kennedy was big-time, he was Camelot-glamorous; it must have required a huge plot to kill him. More than anything else, in the conspiracy framework, there's order: Good guys and bad. The President's nemeses had reason to want him out of the way. The idea Oswald was a solitary gunman puts power to change history in the hands of one malcontent with a cheap rifle, and is the very definition of chaos.

Such imponderable, chaotic motive and action are terrifying, especially in a nuclear age.

I'm not sure about the motivations for people who fell victim to a Sedona sweat-lodge death trap this week. SPQR has a fine post today on this tragedy of misplaced trust and curiosity, in which two people died and 19 were hospitalized after hours in a relevatory steambath apparently operated by self-appointed guru James Arthur Ray. He peddles something called "The Secret" and is a favorite of Oprah Winfrey, who sometimes reveals a startlingly counterintuitive (and powerfully influential) vetting process.

The stereotype of belief in witchy nonsense is that it's always current among rural hayseeds and the poor. But reality confounds that class arrogance: Superstitious hogwash has real coin among people possessing bounteous time and money. Scientologists here in Los Angeles are some of the wealthiest members of the community; there's a cable show called "Celebrity Ghost Stories" or some such hooey, in which haggard "Love Boat" castaways recount their encounters with the unknown.

Over the past few decades, we've been confused by a lot of "anti-reality" - pie-eyed nonsense our parents and grandparents would laugh out of town. Is this stuff propelled through society by folks who really believe it? By interests who can make money off it - or even utilize the ignorance and bafflement it leaves in its wake?

Well... all of that.

A debate topic as foolish as "death panels" built into heath-care reform wouldn't have traction in a social dynamic that prized logic and evidence. But one in which a sizable segment of the populace believes enormous conspiracies can operate without leaving behind a shred of evidence, or that we can sweat out our inner warrior - easily can be fooled and sidetracked by such crap.

On the other hand, dismissing real schemes as "conspiracy theory" is useful camouflage for real conspirators. The inane counter-proposals of the "911 truthers" obscure valid questions about the terror attacks, and unresolved issues about that remarkable, tragic day.

Our spiritual side is deep and mysterious. It's always unmarked ground, prime for new discovery, but that leaves it ripe for misdirection, for lies. We want to believe. But what? At what point do our defining dogmas turn toxic and begin destroying us? Today, in the Middle East, a long, complicated blood-letting pivots on which unprovable... fairy tale... will dominate the region.

How deeply can we love the unknowable? How much can we risk to the invisible?


24 Comments

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Well said.

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A comment on the JFK thing. You feel people who believe in conspiracy do so because it's the most "comforting" scenario - better than chaos. I'd say the lone gunman argument is actually more comforting. After all, what could be more frightening than to have secret, but enormously powerful groups who are able to eliminate those who want change?

The massive use of the easy and dismissive label "conspiracy label" by the half-educated cynics of our age strikes me as worse than most New Age mumbo-jumbo. After all, can you name a single major position of political or religious power on this Earth which has NOT been subject of secretive maneuvers by small groups/cliques/parties? I don't believe there is. Which would make those who insist (against global history) on long gunmen in American politics - again/JFK and again/MLK and again/RFK - utterly deluded, would it not?

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Good points, Quinn; I agree completely.

It is the easy way out to say (re JFK) that one loner got off a "lucky" shot. It is also completely untrue (as well as impossible), and is refuted by all credible evidence. But by using the words "conspiracy theorists," while doing a circular finger motion to one ear; those who know that in this case, there really WAS a conspiracy, are just laughed at, and everyone stays comfy with their delusions.

I think it does the truth a disservice to automatically dismiss and ridicule those who would like evidence to see the light of day as "conspiracy nuts." No doubt there are those who just make stuff up: Birthers come to mind. But just because some people are crazy doesn't mean everyone is.

Is the test of sanity for someone to say that there are no conspiracies? I think sanity should include a heavy dose of skepticism, but to be sane and wise, one must also be open to evidence.

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Credible evidence? ...Or coincidence and speculation? Logical fallacy and, even, wishful thinking?

Almost 50 years and nobody's talked. Nobody's sold out. Unbelieveable.

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Judging from what you have said you will discount all of this, but there is plenty of credible evidence; this is just one small summary:

http://jfkconspiracyfacts.blogspot.com/

The bullet tracks, forensically shown not to have come from above -- just one irrefutable piece of information. But you have decided it is nonsense, just like there are those who have decided that the earth is 6,000 years old, and those who believe in the silliness of evolution are nonsensical.

Curt, I agree with 99% of what you post here, but we have to agree to disagree on this one. I believed as you do (for the comfort of it), but I was pulled kicking and screaming, to look at the evidence, and I am convinced. I did the same eye-roll as you do, but I checked the evidence with as objective a mind as I could manage, and finally I could no longer deny what was in front of my eyes.

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I believe the Warren Commission Report about as much as I believe the 9-11 Commission Report, which is to say not at all.

I still don't think you would have needed a huge conspiracy to pull off either event, but in JFK's case, there had to have been much more direct involvement given the glaring inconsistencies involved.

9-11 would have been relatively simple to pull off compared to how the JFK assassination and cover-up went down.

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CVille Dem, the reverse is true for me. For quite awhile, decades ago, I also believed a conspiracy was afoot. But I took the time to investigate evidence offered by doubters, and came away convinced there is no proof yet discovered of another gunman in Dealy Plaza that day.
And Jason, regardless of whether such an assassination conspiracy was huge or not, the subsequent cover-up, involving everyone from witnesses and city cops on the scene all the way up to the Supreme Court, would be enormous and supernatually efficient. There can be no JFK conspiracy scenario without such an official cover-up.

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Doesn't have to be a big conspiracy to take advantage of confusion and an unprecedented event.

I think a small, smart group of people could easily get away with committing both events and by the time anyone thought to investigate the evidence is gone and the theory becomes one of Tin Foil Hat fame.

I have heard both sides of these two issues in particular and the official stories contain zero logic as far as I can tell.

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Not without leaving some evidence behind, Jason. What happens in the confusion of the moment is one thing, but such a conspiracy would have to alter or destroy all footprints left behind. That would require a far-ranging cover-up, still unbreached half a century later. No one talks, no one sells out. Such a crime wouldn't violate just the law, it would contradict every facet human nature, good and bad.

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Based on the Warren Report and the various TV shows and movies I have seen on the JFK assassination, I think such a conspiracy is as likely as the official story given the enormous gaping holes in that theory.

Absence of proof doesn't mean absence of truth, so we will have to agree to disagree on this one. I don't know what the truth is on this one, or even 9-11 fore that matter, but I the official story sounds like bullshit to me.

Once the evidence has been destroyed and conspirators die no amount of time passing will bring it or them back to help figure out what really happened.

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SFC
You ask:

How deeply can we love the unknowable? How much can we risk to the invisible?

The doorway to belief in omnipotent cloud beings and such are inversely related to ones self worth. I would have to chew on this for a week or two to remove the gut feeling and fill with facts but it rings true in my mind.

In this country and in the world it seems we have a renewed FAITH in our leader. I believe we have no other choice then to risk all on a invisible faith that we are heading away from our ability to exterminate ourselves.

M. Paul

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Curt I must render unto you the Dayly Quote of the Day Award for this here TPMCafe Site, given to all of you from all of me. For this gem


"Always keep an open mind, but not so open that your brains fall out."

News Flash:

Is the earth six thousand years old...you decide. ha


hahahah

Great post, as always.

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thanks for the ups.

Scientologists here in Los Angeles are some of the wealthiest members of the community

it turns out James Arthur Ray has paid for Scientology auditing sessions, which are known to be thousands of dollars a pop. he describes his experiences here in his blog.

I remember leaving my Scientology "auditing" sessions being totally exhausted! (As well as much lighter in my wallet with many more multiples of sessions to go).

these new age culties feed off each other in addition to fleecing the public.

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JFK, RFK and MLK all meeting a violent and untimely end makes people wonder if there isn't more there. People notice when this happens to persons having a certain profile. When it happens to three, all in the same generation who share a political and social profile, there will be questions. The events may not be at all connected but it serves to identify a larger notion of something amiss that alarms people.

One thing for sure is people often operate on a level where they derive illogical answers for questions that seemingly have no answers but for which answers are required. I suspect the larger share of this has to do with closely held decisions of powerful persons who would be at risk were their decisions or motivations truly known and revealed. People intuitively know the answer in these instances but also know it will never be addressed. Bush is a perfect example.

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I clicked on the Skeptic link; it looks like no reading without buying. I was tickled to see that the Coriolis effect was going to be discussed. As luck would have it, I was watching sink water drain yesterday, and I couldn't even tell which way it was draining. There seemed to be an almost optical illusion of it switching directions. For now, I'll stay ignorant on the subject.
As to pseudo-science, belief in non-provable theories, etc. I am reluctant to sign on to all your assertions, but I am wobbly on putting my thoughts into coherent order. One difficulty is that I don't know how broad a brush you are painting with your categorizations.
Faith is the belief in the unprovable. Okay. That includes most religions, and while I don't know anything about Scientology or Dianetics, I do know at least a few tenets of other religions, and at their base, aren't they all a bit comical when stripped down? It's easier for me to laugh at say, Mormon beliefs, but is it because I have come to accept Christian tenets as a background to living in this country? Meaning that some of them don't offend me, while others do, like Creationists and Rapturists and believers in Prosperity Doctrine.

As far as the 'New-Age', I wonder what the dividing line might be in your mind between the borderline of New Age dementia and alternate medicine. Thirty years ago, alternatives were mocked whole-heartedly by doctors, but now some have changed their minds. You cite aromatherapy as a giggle-worthy; and it may be. Now many cancer hospitals that put ads on the teevee say they have 'wholistic treatments,' including mind-body therapies (that's hilarious, i just typed mind-money instead of body, hello, Dr. Freud?).
For me, the big bright red dividing line of scams had to do with money and concrete guarantees of the efficacy of some practice or treatment. When people ask me my opinion about a particular chiropractor, say, I usually advise them to see what kind of car he/she drives, and how many times that practitioner expects you to come each week. Ask yourself, do you want to help make payments on that car, or just go when you think you need to go. I cringe at some of the (to me) quacks that PBS airs over and over during their pledge drives. Having said that:
I spent 30 years doing corrective massage therapy. I am not a quack, and would always refer people out if I thought it necessary. I also had a good success rate, as much pain is simply a matter of neuro-muscular tension and spinal distortion, and some very concrete chemical muscular/neural problems that were correctable. One local physician and I became friends, and she came to learn a few hand-on techniques and theories to add to her practice.
Some beliefs are not true until they are proven by studies, but there aren't people to pay for the studies, except in the case of say, in-house studies for products or techniques that are making a lot of money already. It's frustrating; I always wanted to be part of a measurable, quantifiable study.
The last point I would address is the nature of individual reality; my intuitions says there may be more than one absolute reality, the way there physics say there are other timelines occurring at once. Quantum physics opens up some pretty odd possibilities, which I am woefully unprepared to grasp. I have tried reading a few books, like The Quantum Brain, but I can literally only let the words wash over me without really grasping any of it. String theory is that way for me; I can get how tickled scientists are about it, but I haven't the background to understand it.
I'm a little loth to press the 'Submit' button here; I had to let my Humiliation Insurance lapse a couple years ago...

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Oops: more than one reality THAT physics says...

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I don't intend to condemn faith, Wendy. But I wonder if we don't put it in its proper perspective, its proper place and proportion in the structure of our lives. I know people for whom their beliefs - religious, philosopical - are the most important component in their lives; I wonder if faith can be an adequate guidepost if it's presumed to be our entire existential geography. And you're right: Quantum physics seems to open possibilities once the realm of alchemist magic. I don't know; I want to stay flexible. And I want what I believe to be in balance with what I can discern from the cosmos apart from myself. And I think there's truth in all religion. The first few lines of Genesis mysteriously track current scientific descriptions of the Big Bang: darkness, light, then everything.

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Hmmm...

I take the stance of informed agnostic. I have read Skeptic and Skeptical Inquiry for years. The Amazing Randi has been an important contributor to skeptical thinking.

Often, however, the line is crossed. Skeptical inquiry is often locked in fundamentalist materialism. They also operate from a mean that does not exist. The Committee for Scientific Inestigation of the Paranormal assumes the existence of normal. If anyone can point to normal and use that as a standard for inquiry, please let me know. Robert Anton Wilson (RIP) has a 15 grand cash prize still outstanding for anyone who can conclusively prove the existence of normal.

Yes, there is a degree of ignorant gullibility that persists in humankind. For example. people (especially skeptics) presume an unproveable level of importance to human existence that is neither verifiable or even inductively reasonable given what we know. But to attempt an honest assessment of human value would prove intractable to the overwhelming majority of humanity.

I have kept an open and critical mind and witnessed events and circumstances that would curl straight hair and straighten curly hair. And the conditioned skeptical reaction of "it s a coincidence" is as much an ignorant rosary as a Pater Noster.

And swiping the Kennedy theory is just silly. A separate Congressional inquiry stated the probable existence of a conspiracy. The truth doesn't begin and end with the absurd Warren Commission. That isn't skepticism, it's faith in conventional wisdom... And that isn't wholesome either.

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"I have kept an open and critical mind and witnessed events and circumstances that would curl straight hair and straighten curly hair."

I'll sign on 100% behind that statement, Zip. Sometimes it feels like the universe is deliberately messing with my head by throwing some curveball at me just when I've determined that belief in curveballs is foolishness. So then I have to carry around BOTH the phenomenon which just occurred AND my hard-headed realist view that such things can't possibly occur.

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As late as two years ago, about 70 percent of Americans believe a conspiracy/cover-up surrounds JFK's assassination, so conventional wisdom seems to course the other way. Here's my take: Conspiracy theories are, by their nature, potentially dangerous. They either confuse and blind us to actual machination, or serve some political agenda. Throughout most of their sojourn in European history, Jews were the victims of conspiracy theories and accusations based on nothing more than malicious fable. As humans, I think we're more willing to believe something that matches our own worldview, than on facts at hand. Occam would applaud our search for simplest explanations, but he'd abhor our arcane method at achieving our sometimes counterintuitive conclusions.

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I thought of your post after reading the following, and think you might also enjoy it if you have a subscription (digital or dead tree.) It's not about garden variety conspiracy theories but related, on various cycle theorists in finance.

Nick Paumgarten, “The Secret Cycle/Is the financier Martin Armstrong a con man, crank or genius," The New Yorker, October 12, 2009, p. 66

Especially this excerpt:

They say that, like the length of women's dresses and the release of new horror films, tolerance of cycle theory increases in down markets. We tend to ascribe rising markets and an expanding economy, as long as they last, to our own ingenuity--to progress, experience, rationality, a generational refinement in the ability of economists to manage our affairs. Bull markets are seen to be incarnations of human perfectibility. (Home prices would rise forever, because we had invented a new form of debt, one that didn't ever have to be repaid.) When things go to pieces, we shirk responsibility and seek other explanations. Fatalism creeps in. It can't be merely that we are as ever, greedy, short-sighted creatures, prone to self-delusion, incapable from learning from the past. There must be something, or Something, else at work, beyond our understanding or control.

Actually, the entire article didn't just focus on Armstrong, but went through a short history of cycle theorists and what others thought of them, and I thought it did a good job of giving examples of both those people who simply work a pattern theory as intriguing, along the lines of "this looks like a useful exercise that might take me somewhere in finding out a truth or two," and those who go over the line to a fundamentalist belief in a simple explanation for complexity, or vice versa, and/or fatalism, and/or creating a scapegoat for human woes. It was challenging that way, got me thinking that general conspiracy theorizing has a similar mix of practitioners, even though I am usually as "anti-conspiracy theory" as you are.

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Nice post, Curt.

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Oh, right you are. How comforting to know that no human being's head can snap backwards when shot from the back (unless bullets that could do u-turns in mid-flight existed in 1963); and how comforting to know that there were unknown men flashing Secret Service credentials on the grassy knoll right after the shooting, even though the Secret Service had no men posted there. And how comforting to know that no fewer than 78 known witnesses heard shots from the grassy knoll. Even more comforting is that the Parkland doctors described an entrance wound in the throat and an exit wound at the back of the head. And it's blissful to know that D.H. Byrd, Dallas oilman, JFK hater, and beneficiary of a huge defense contract from LBJ, was the owner of the Texas School Book Depository. And oh how rapturous to realize that Allen Dulles (the man most responsible for investigating the accused murder Oswald) had a direct link to the Oswald family landlady, Ruth Paine. And I take comfort in the knowledge that Dulles recruited Nazi rocket scientist, Walter Dornberger, to work at Bell Helicopter in Dallas/Fort Worth with Michael Paine, Ruth's husband. And how blissful it is to know that Bell was given a huge contract by LBJ to build Hueys for Vietnam. And how I glory in the knowledge that massive amounts of evidence exist which prove Oswald was a CIA operative handled and framed by David Atlee Phillips, George DeMohrenschildt and Ruth Paine. And, oh how comforting it is to know that Oswald served in the Louisiana Civil Air Patrol (founded by D.H. Byrd and his Air Force Chief of Staff buddy Curtis Lemay--another rabid JFK hater) with intelligence operatives David Ferrie, James R. Bath (W's Texas Air Guard pal), agency drug runner Barry Seal, expert Dallas mortician John Liggett, and contract killer Charles Rogers.

Yes, I am very comforted by all of these facts and a thousand others surrounding the assassination.

Tim Fleming
www.eloquentbooks.com/MurderOfAnAmericanNazi.html
http://www.blazingtrailers.com/show.php?title=441

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Somehow, it's not comforting to know so many self-acclaimed forensics experts and coincidence woolgatherers can jump out of the woodwork at a moment's notice.

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San Fernando Curt

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  • Location North Hollywood, CA
  • Party Democratic
  • Politics Neo-Realist

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  • Favorite Blogs Antiwar.com Salon.com
  • Favorite Books "Dreadnought" by Robert K. Massie "The Power and the Glory" by Graham Greene "Lamprey!" by Jerry Verlan "The Reichsfuhrer Calls You 'Bitchmeat'" by Turner Luce
  • Favorite Quotes "I just don't... uh... 'do' Middle Eastern fairy tales..." - My Own Li'l Bible "You seem ill - you must’ve come down with a severe case of dumb-ass." - Chip Rawlins, my college roomate

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Making it happen here in the San Fernando Valley - sunshine, car-jackings and facial tattoos. Livin' the high!

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