Islam, Thomas Jefferson, and American History


I wrote this in 2005 and it was published in the My View column of the commuter daily newspaper Metro.  I thought I'd repost given Obama's history speech in Cairo.

Islam's presence in America is older than the United States itself.  Not only were some members of the slave population Muslims it is a little known fact that Thomas Jefferson owned a copy of the Qur'an and studied it in detail.  History tells us that Jefferson extracted the best from all codes of law during his quest for the ideal form of government. The Qur'an contains the core democratic principles such as representative government and freedom from oppression that Jefferson advocated in the Declaration of Independence and much of our country's initial legislation.  The teachings of Islam are part of the foundation of the American spirit of universal equality and the rights for all humanity.  

 

While the Qur'an serves many purposes, Jefferson focused on its moral and legal code. In today's Muslim world, this code is often abused by autocratic governments and extremists looking to maintain and/or perpetuate their grips on power. These individuals and institutions have abused the Qur'an, resulting in rabid misinformation about the religion that considers it a Divine source.

 

In recent weeks, the Qur'an has been in the news for unfortunate reasons.  The reports of the desecration of the Qur'an by US interrogators and Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi claiming  the Qur'an sanctifies the killing of innocent people for the greater cause of 'jihad' has been a source of distress for most Muslims.  John Espisito, professor of Islamic studies at Georgetown, articulated the first issue very simply, "the Qur'an is to Islam what Jesus is to Christianity."  He also accurately compares the feeling of Muslims as the same sentiment Americans feel when the flag is burned. 

 

Even more dangerous for the 7mm Muslims in America and the billion plus throughout the world, is the misrepresentation of Islam by the extremists and the media.  The word jihad is often erroneously translated as holy war, while the actual meaning is 'struggle'.  In its purest form, this struggle is for the defense of Islam's principles.  It ranges from simply telling the truth to defending an Islamic society against an invading power much like the US-backed mujahadeen did in Afghanistan.  It is true, however, that Muslims believe martyrs go to heaven.  We also believe, to paraphrase the Qur'an, that killing an innocent person is like killing all of humanity.  While jihad by the sword is an element of a Muslim's struggle, it is given lesser importance than other forms.  Ali, the Prophet's nephew and the fourth caliph of Islam, said, "the ink of a scholar's pen is more sacred than the blood of a martyr."

 

Americans must attempt to understand the fastest growing religion in the world and the words that inspire its believers.  We must embrace 'moderate' Muslims throughout the world and give them a platform to defeat the extremist element within it. As a Muslim American I've benefited from the law that Thomas Jefferson and the Qur'an helped inspire.  We must all realize that the American Spirit and the Qur'an share the common goals of life, liberty and the humble pursuit of happiness.

What does Jihad really mean?? UPDATE


Every time someone speaks about jihad, either in a news story or to justify horrific acts, the true meaning of the word and the principles of Islam usually get lost.  The story about last night's arrest of four men who allegedly were plotting terrible violence is no different.

Very simply, jihad means struggle.  From wikipedia:

According to scholar John Esposito, Jihad requires Muslims to "struggle in the way of God" or "to struggle to improve one's self and/or society."

This tenet is not exclusive to any religion, faith, philosophy, or societal structure.  Live well.  Live pure.  Help others.  Promote justice.  Be humble before your fellow man and your Creator (whatever you believe that to be).

I haven't read all the stories so far, but I hope the reporting includes Muslim scholars and other leaders who have a chance to counter the nonsense about Islam justifying murder.

Otherwise, kudos to law enforcement for what seems like a job well done (I hope there wasn't any violation of civil rights of course).  Also, it seems like homegrown plots in the US are planned by idiots.  UPDATE: Perfect example of this.

Finally, here's something I wrote a few years back that was published in Metro's My View column:

Islam's presence in America is older than the United States itself.  Not only were some members of the slave population Muslims it is a little known fact that Thomas Jefferson owned a copy of the Qur'an and studied it in detail.  History tells us that Jefferson extracted the best from all codes of law during his quest for the ideal form of government.  The Qur'an contains the core democratic principles such as representative government and freedom from oppression that Jefferson advocated in the Declaration of Independence and much of our country's initial legislation.  The teachings of Islam are part of the foundation of the American spirit of universal equality and the rights for all humanity.  

 

While the Qur'an serves many purposes, Jefferson focused on its moral and legal code. In today's Muslim world, this code is often abused by autocratic governments and extremists looking to maintain and/or perpetuate their grips on power.  These individuals and institutions have abused the Qur'an, resulting in rabid misinformation about the religion that considers it a Divine source.

 

In recent weeks, the Qur'an has been in the news for unfortunate reasons.  The reports of the desecration of the Qur'an by US interrogators and Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi claiming  the Qur'an sanctifies the killing of innocent people for the greater cause of 'jihad' has been a source of distress for most Muslims.  John Espisito, professor of Islamic studies at Georgetown, articulated the first issue very simply, "the Qur'an is to Islam what Jesus is to Christianity."  He also accurately compares the feeling of Muslims as the same sentiment Americans feel when the flag is burned. 

 

Even more dangerous for the 7mm Muslims in America and the billion plus throughout the world, is the misrepresentation of Islam by the extremists and the media.  The word jihad is often erroneously translated as holy war, while the actual meaning is 'struggle'.  In its purest form, this struggle is for the defense of Islam's principles.  It ranges from simply telling the truth to defending an Islamic society against an invading power much like the US-backed mujahadeen did in Afghanistan.  It is true, however, that Muslims believe martyrs go to heaven.  We also believe, to paraphrase the Qur'an, that killing an innocent person is like killing all of humanity.  While jihad by the sword is an element of a Muslim's struggle, it is given lesser importance than other forms.  Ali, the Prophet's nephew and the fourth caliph of Islam, said, "the ink of a scholar's pen is more sacred than the blood of a martyr."

 

Americans must attempt to understand the fastest growing religion in the world and the words that inspire its believers.  We must embrace 'moderate' Muslims throughout the world and give them a platform to defeat the extremist element within it.  As a Muslim American I've benefited from the law that Thomas Jefferson and the Qur'an helped inspire.  We must all realize that the American Spirit and the Qur'an share the common goals of life, liberty and the humble pursuit of happiness.

A Historic Day for the Environment and Putting Change in Context


Today, the Obama Administration is going to announce a new federal emissions and MPG standard for America's automobiles.  This is truly historic and a very necessary step towards improving our chances to combat the climate crisis. There's a lot more work to do, but this is something to celebrate because it is a significant policy that will reduce emissions from cars:

The new standards would cut greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles by about 30% by 2016, while boosting the industry average fuel efficiency standard to 35.5 miles per gallon.

This standard satisfies environmentalists and States like California, who believed the old EPA standard wasn't good enough and decided to enact stricter and more responsible rules.  Simultaneously, it drags the industry into the future in a way that also makes the automakers' life easier, by giving them a little bit more time and making a national standard that allows them to plan a single rollout.

While the policy excites me as someone who is concerned for our planet, the way this policy was achieved, excites me even more because it shows the possibilities for transformation that we have with this fantastically talented and intelligent President.  Coalition and consensus building is critical to achieving the change we voted for.  This specific success seems to be a tangible example of President Obama's ability to bring people together and produce results:

"What´s significant about the announcement is it launches a new beginning, an era of cooperation," said Dave McCurdy, president and CEO of the Alliance [of Automobile Manufacturers]. "The president has succeeded in brining three regulatory bodies, 15 states, a dozen automakers and many environmental groups to the table," he said. "We´re all agreeing to work together on a national program."

There are a lot of promises that Obama made during the campaign and for the most part, I believe he is making a lot of effort to keep them.  The pace and success of implementing change is entirely subject to the context of each individual situation.  In this case, he didn't require congressional approval nor were the politics of this issue so toxic.  It seems that the Bush policy that he had to unravel here wasn't as booby-trapped as everything else that Obama inherited.  

If only guantanamo, torture, the financial system, cap-and-trade, healthcare, and both wars were this clean and simple.

Unfortunately, we're in an unprecedented mess right now, which for the most part was caused by a lot of bad policy and infrastructure that had already been well baked into the system, especially after the policies of the last eight years.  So many crises were building up and they all seem to have exploded in the last 12 months.  Right now (even more than usual) the President has to prioritize.  This means certain initiatives or promises will have to be delayed or even reversed.

I'm not crazy about some of these delays, and many progressives have eloquently advocated for important issues and made efforts to hold the Administration accountable.  However, in the grand scheme of things, I don't mind because I believe Obama is making great effort to move a lot of major priorities forward.  The context of each situation he's dealing with is extremely complex and rife with nonsense from Congress, the realities of enacting legislation that is good and not perfect, the politics of the moment, the less than stellar media, and the state of the world.  

If only guantanamo, torture, the financial system, cap-and-trade, healthcare, and both wars were clean and simple.  If only the republican leadership was cut from the cloth of Crist or Huntsman.  If only the world wasn't so effed up in so many ways all at the same time.

I mean come on...one day the President wakes up and after getting his daily briefing on the wars, the banks, the automakers, the people's joblessness, he is told 'oh yeah, there's this swine flu thing that might be a pandemic and by the way a Senator or two is holding up the appointment of your HHS Secretary'  Can we all get a break here???  At the moment unfortunately we can't, because the swine flu situation exemplifies my point about the system that Obama is dealing with:  Bad policies long in place, silly DC habits, and a very sick planet.  

I hope and pray that the human race and our country get a break and we're able transform into a century of progress, education, health, and pluralism.  Because of the many smart people in charge who are being led by an exceptional President, because of all of us who are being the change that we want, I am optimistic that we can meet the challenge.  I appreciate when other liberals are demanding accountability and advocating for more progressive policy but I believe it's equally important to have patience and make full effort to understand the context of each situation.  As our President requested from Notre Dame grads 'Open hearts, open minds, and fair-minded words'.

Progressives, we are getting what we want from Geithner


Some quiet noise is coming from the Obama Administration that may please progressive critics of the Financial Stability Plan.  Amongst other things, some are upset that taxpayers are getting a raw deal from the bailout and not getting enough ownership in the banks that receive TARP money. Other concerns include firing management and breaking up institutions that are too big to fail. 

When Geithner announced the new capital assistance plan in February, the Treasury specifically addressed the issue of getting the taxpayer a better deal.  Any new capital provided to banks would give the Treasury preferred stock that could be converted into common shares, which ultimately results in a large equity stake for the government/taxpayer.  Original TARP preferred stock holdings can choose to have this conversion option as well.

The deal with Citi was the first example of this mechanism in action and it resulted in the government owning up to 36% of the company's voting shares.  It also was a step towards true nationalization and perhaps ultimately receivership should Citi prove to be insolvent and if a new law is enacted that allows the federal government to wind down non-bank financial institutions.  This ownership stake comes with many complications, but it simultaneously allows the government to have more control of the banks.  Via the NYT, the treasury has indicated that this strategy is a favored path to improving bank capital without spending additional taxpayer money.

The Treasury has already negotiated this kind of conversion with Citigroup and has said it would consider doing the same with other banks, as needed. But now the administration seems convinced that this maneuver can be used to make up for any shortfall in capital that the big banks confront in the near term.

Each conversion of this type would force the administration to decide how to handle its considerable voting rights on a bank's board...

The change to common stock would not require the government to contribute any additional cash, but it could increase the capital of big banks by more than $100 billion...

But the biggest way to stretch funds could be to convert preferred shares to common stock, a strategy that the government seems prepared to use on a case-by-case basis.

This mechanism, which doesn't require additional taxpayer money, is a smart way to improve financial system stability because it stretches limited financial and political capital available in the TARP program.  However, as I referred to above, this solution comes with complications:

Taxpayers would also be taking on more risk, because there is no way to know what the common shares might be worth when it comes time for the government to sell them...

The Treasury would also become a major shareholder, and perhaps even the controlling shareholder, in some financial institutions. That could lead to increasingly difficult conflicts of interest for the government, as policy makers juggle broad economic objectives with the narrower responsibility to maximize the value of their bank shares on behalf of taxpayers.


Clearly, no solution is perfect, however, I hope progressive critics/haters of Geithner recognize how complicated this situation is.  His hands are tied by the limits of current law/regulation, the interconnectedness of the financial system, the Wall St establishment, politics, irrational market behavior, and a media that for the most part, isn't qualified to provide sober, consistent, and quality reporting on this issue.  So many stakeholders are looking for instant gratification and are failing to recognize that Geithner and Co. have to play a careful game of poker and make decisions and take actions in a very deliberate and strategic way.

This is a step-by-step process, and slowly but surely, the Administration is moving things in the right direction.  Regulation will come (see this article from a U of Chicago professor. I am guessing he is connected to Goolsbee and Obama via U of Chicago so his opinion may filter to the officials in charge of devising new regs) and the government will start wielding its axe, creating change at the management and board level.  It looks like the administration will use the leverage gained form the stress-test results, the need for new capital infusions, and common stock voting rights to enact these changes.  The FT reported that government officials are planning for the possibilities of replacing Vikram Pandit, the Citi CEO:

Ahead of Citi's annual investor meeting, it has emerged that senior officials at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation privately discussed who might replace Mr Pandit if the bank needed more government aid

"It is unthinkable that Vikram could stay on if Citi requires more federal funds," said a person familiar with the matter. "It is prudent to be thinking about different scenarios."

The administration did this with GM and I have no doubt that they'll do this with the banks.  There's no double standard here.  Like in poker, it's just a matter of timing and having the right cards.  People were in a tizzy and all of a sudden had such sympathy for Rick Wagoner. They said he was a sacrificial lamb and saw this as just another piece of evidence that the Obama Administration cares about Wall Street more than main street.  Governor Granholm tried to make a case that Wagoner was a sacrificial lamb who was trying hard and was taking the steps needed to change GM.  Let me put it this way: Wagoner used to be a Chevy Tahoe and the 'change' he made was that he transformed himself into a Chevy Tahoe Hybrid.  He went from being a 15 mpg SUV to being a 21 mpg SUV.  Give me a break!  Sorry, I digress from my main point...

I am speculating of course,  but in addition to management changes, I suspect that the Treasury will also force the break-up of the too big to fail institutions (I hope Rattner is clean, because he's the guy who can manage this transition effectively).  Additionally, Wall St is naturally decentralizing, as bankers begin to move from established firms to smaller start-ups and boutiques.

But other financial experts believe it is the beginning of a broader and necessary reshaping of Wall Street, too long dominated by a handful of major players that helped to fuel the financial crisis. The country may be better off if the banking industry is less concentrated, they say.

"If the risk-taking spreads out to these smaller institutions, it is no longer a systemic threat," said Matthew Richardson, professor of finance at the Stern School of Business atNew York University. "And innovation is spreading out too. This is a good thing."

I could be way off, but I don't think I am or maybe I hope that I'm not.  Focusing on the big picture, I think the administration is taking the appropriate steps, and six months to a year from now, I'm optimistic that we'll be able to  look back on a fairly effective financial stability plan, that pleases a lot of different stakeholders.  Also, obviously, I don't address the PPIP in this post, because I figure people already either hate it or don't mind it/can stomach it.  Time and execution will tell us, which side is right.

Local news coverage via 'Hyperlocal' news sites


A few weeks back, because of an interview with David Simon, former journalist and the creator of the HBO show The Wire, I pondered the future of the news business and specifically, how local news would be covered in the future.

This article from the NYT has some interesting examples of 'Hyperlocal' websites that have various different methods of delivering local news and opinion content.  Some have original reporting combined with feeds or licensed content. Others simply aggregate local news & information from other content providers.

Kudos to American ingenuity.  I hope these start-ups are successful.

Roubini calls Cramer a Buffoon AND believes in Geithner's plan


"Cramer is a buffoon," said Roubini, a New York University economics professor often called Dr. Doom. "He was one of those who called six times in a row for this bear market rally to be a bull market rally and he got it wrong. And after all this mess and Jon Stewart he should just shut up because he has no shame."

Not that he needs it, but Roubini just continues to add to his credibility.  Another key point in Roubini's recent comments at a bears conference in Toronto:

Roubini said the latest surge is just another bear market rally following the pattern of other rallies after the government intervened. He expects the market will test the previous low because of worse than expected macroeconomic news, disappointing earnings and because banks will fail after the stress tests come out.

This article also shows that the two most prescient and accurate predictors (Roubini and Meredith Whitney) of the financial crisis see things differently than the progressive conventional wisdom.  In addition to believing the stress tests will cause banks to fail and be put into receivership, he also supports the Geithner plan:

Roubini said he supports Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's plan to remove toxic assets from the banks.

Roubini made the comments before appearing with bank analyst Meredith Whitney and Canadian bears Ian Gordon and Eric Sprott at a Toronto event titled "A Night with the Bears." They all correctly predicted the current financial meltdown.

Whitney, among the most bearish of bank analysts, said that some of the 19 banks undergoing government stress tests may not pass.

"I think the big banks will get through and some of the smaller banks may not," Whitney said in interview with The AP.

Meredith Whitney is arguably the top authority on the US banking system and its solvency.  It's been her job to know the ins and outs of the US banks and she accurately predicted the US banking systems' woes over the last two years.  To me, her word carries more weight than Krugman.  She doesn't have an ideological axe to grind and her track record speaks for itself.

Whitney doesn't think that the whole banking system is insolvent (including the too big to fail banks) and Roubini is cautiously optimistic about Geithner's PPIP and stress test plan.  For those of you who are very skeptical of Geithner, I wonder if this makes you anymore open to the possibility that his plan might work.

Roubini used to be a Senior Advisor to Geithner at Treasury.  I imagine that they still talk, but do it privately, because they don't want to spook the markets.  I think he knows something most of us don't.  Maybe it's because he chats with Geithner or maybe it's because he can read between the lines better than others.

Legally and politically, the Treasury can only pre-privatize or receive banks if they can prove that they're insolvent.  The results of the stress tests will provide them with that information and political cover.  Geithner's request for new powers to seize non-bank financial institutions is also telling.

Mr. Roubini says he believes that the Treasury's plan does not preclude nationalization. Rather, he said, it will help to clear the way to full government takeover of some troubled institutions.

"I see the option of nationalization" and the one presented by the Obama administration "as being complementary," Mr. Roubini said. He believes that the stress tests the government plans on conducting on the banks will reveal which are solvent and which are insolvent.

In his view, those banks that are deemed insolvent will not participate in the toxic-asset plan and will be taken over by the government. Banks deemed solvent will be the ones that get to participate.

He cited Tuesday's Congressional testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner.

"The most important thing is what Bernanke and Geithner said today about the need for an insolvency regime for systemically important institutions," Mr. Roubini said. "You are going to need that not just for the A.I.G.'s of the world, but also the bank holding companies as they go into Chapter 11."

He added, "You are going to need that in shutting down, potentially, a bank likeCitigroup."

Finally, it looks like Washington is quietly looking to learn a lesson from the Swedes. 

To stimulate or not? What would Germany do?


The debate at the G20 about fiscal stimulus between France/Germany and the 'anglo-saxan' leaders has made me think.  My initial reaction was that they need to do their part to spend and stimulate demand but after second thought, I can understand and respect where Angela Merkel is coming from.  (BTW, I love how BHO is lumped into the anglo-saxon contingent).

We're spending money on transport infrastructure, the social safety net, clean energy, and healthcare.  Germany has some of the best transport infrastructure in the world.  It's rail system is great and it is a pleasure to drive on the Audobon.  Each lane has a speed and everyone on the road respects the rules.  In my experience, you're safer because you can simultaneously drive fast and there aren't any idiot drivers on the road.  They have a generous (maybe too generous) unemployment system.  They have the highest use of solar and biogas in the world (maybe wind too).  Their engineers are already developing, commercializing, and deploying the clean technologies and efficient cars of America's future. They already have a universal healthcare system.

Germany has made the investments that we're finally catching up on, so what would a wise fiscal stimulus from Germany look like?  Ironically enough, I think the Republican version of 'stimulus' might actually make sense for Germany.  A cut in business and individual income taxes combined with an ease in regulations for small business might help revive their domestic marketplace.  As a believer in Keynesian economics, I think the German government should invest/spend on something, but I'm not sure what.  As I said earlier, I understand Merkel's position and could see that she might be annoyed by the calls for fiscal stimulus.

Germany's economy is by no means perfect, but it does seem that its 'socialist' policies have  put them in good position to weather the downturn.  I wonder if Obama is best served by focusing on convincing Merkel to take leadership and help the other Euro-Zone economies rather than just barking up the fiscal stimulus tree.

The future of news in America - the model, the product, the format


This January, I had the great pleasure of watching all five seasons of the HBO show The Wire from start to finish.  The creator of the show, David Simon, was a reporter at the Baltimore Sun for 12 years before he began his television career.  Simon and his writing partner, Ed Burns, a former Baltimore homicide detective and schoolteacher, told the story of the American City from a different perspective each season: the street, the dying working class, city hall, the school system, and the city newspaper, in this case the Baltimore Sun.

If you haven't seen the show, I highly recommend you put it on your to do list for 2009.  I suggest that you buy all five seasons and don't make too many plans for a month, because once you start watching the DVDs it's like reading an epic novel that you can't put down.  It explains the world through the microcosm of the city of Baltimore and it makes you think and feel more than any other show that has ever been on TV.

The show is focused on Baltimore and is rich with amazing characters but the real protagonist of all 60 episodes is the American City.  In the last season, Simon presciently and sadly shows the decay of the city newspaper, but also shows how important the city paper is to the local community.  In addition to viewing this wonderful visual novel, a few things have happened in the last year or so that have made me think about the future of news in America...

1) I discovered TPM in early '08 based on the recommendation of a friend 2) Was lucky enough to witness one of the most amazing elections in modern history 3) The Seattle PI, the Rocky Mountain news, and numerous other city papers have closed up shop 4) I was given an IPod Touch as a gift and now I can easily read NYT, Bloomberg, and USA Today in a very convenient E-Reader Format.  5) I put up my first ever blog post about two months ago on TPM 

I've been meaning to write this post for a while and this morning I came across an interview with David Simon, which predicts an era of political corruption in America's cities because of the fall of the daily city newspaper.  This is exactly what was in my head, especially after finishing The Wire.  I won't spoil it for you, but last season of The Wire shows the dwindling of resources devoted to real reporting and the increasing ease for political and systemic corruption.  With all the city papers closing up shop, I worry about the citizenry's ability to get the facts and to hold the local system accountable.  If there isn't an investment in high quality reporters who are digging for the facts, an already corrupt system is going to get worse.

In general, the business model of news delivery is undergoing rapid transformation.  Some of it is distressing and worrisome, but some of it is very exciting.  I feel that the market will ultimately provide its customers with the format and quality that is both needed and wanted on the national front, however I am worried about a sustainable business model that will service and reach local communities that no longer have a daily city paper.

To me TPM is very exciting as a sustainable news model because Josh has been able to maintain independence, make money (I am assuming this), successfully marry reporting-blogging, and continue to grow and deliver a fantastic product.  It's a great twist on the old model.  Advertising revenue combined with voluntary contributions instead of subscriptions.  This is sustainable because all of us are TPM addicts and we bring traffic to the sight. Because we're able to have our own forum on the site, it feels like a co-op, where we have a stake in the site and therefore have every incentive to make sure it thrives (For example, it seems like Josh's request for us to fill out his survey a couple weeks ago was very successful).  No printing or distribution costs (environmentally friendly), which allows investment into high quality human resources.  We as readers are also sources for tips and facts, which vastly expands TPM's reporting base wiki-style. Right now, TPM may be a niche, but often times businesses are described as niches because competition couldn't establish itself in that 'niche' even if they tried.  This is a classic Blue Ocean business model, where the competition is irrelevant and the product provides both value AND something new/unique.

To state the obvious, E-Readers and the internet are the platform for future news delivery.  I think some sites will and are trying to imitate the TPM aggregator/blog/unique content model and others will have the Google News aggregator model, where they get paid for advertisements and each click.  The traditional newspapers and weekly periodicals will eventually charge subscription fees for access to online content.  Hopefully, the different models deliver revenue to the journalists and newswires in a way that is economically sustainable.

I also think there will still be a place for print, although I think only for the NYT or the Wa Po,  and maybe a few of the other big papers that have their loyal customers across the country.  I think that print news subscriptions will continue to become more expensive and maybe will become limited to the weekend edition (by the way, honk if you hate the NYT weekender commercial). Older generations will pay up for it, but at a certain point, I think the market will fully shift towards the e-reader or the internet.  This back of the envelope analysis, says that it would cost less for the NYT to give all its subscribers free Kindles than it does to print and distribute the paper each year.  This is a simplified analysis, but it is pretty eye opening nonetheless.  Ever since I downloaded the NYT app to my Ipod, I have read more and more of the NYT.  It's a great format, it's free, and it's perfect for the subway.  However, I don't see how this is a sustainable business practice and eventually it seems this app and most online news sites will have to have a fee associated with it.

I think the FT.com has addresses the subscription fee in a very interesting way that allows different levels of access.  Casual viewers can see a few free articles per 30 days.  Registered viewers can get up to 19.  Then there are a few levels of pay service, which allows further access.  This model seems to appeal to all types of people who want the FT product.  They don't create a big barrier for casual viewers who want free access.  The pricing for full access is competitive and similar to print subscriptions.  I think this will be the winning model for individual newspaper websites.  The aggregators will foot part of this bill in order to provide its customers with free but still high quality news and they will benefit from increased traffic and advertising revenue.

So, while I think I have figured out how some aspects of the news business will survive and hopefully thrive, I still am worried about smaller city dailies.  Going full circle to The Wire and to David Simon's concern about increased city corruption without the fourth estate there as a watchdog, does anyone have an idea how the news model can work for local reporting? The smaller and medium-sized cities have a smaller customer base, therefore the news outlets have limited opportunity to benefit from economies of scale.  Locals seem to like getting their physical paper, even if they just glance at the headlines and head straight for the sports section.  It seems like this customer is not going to go out of their way to check out the locals news website and it doesn't seem like they'd pay for it.  As David Simon points out, 'it costs money to do good journalism' so how can a local community get a quality news product that focuses on their city?

Consolidated newspaper companies will have to somehow maintain franchises in the smaller and medium sized cities, and they must figure out how to deliver the product and maintain easy access.  Independent local sites are going to have to figure out how to deliver local news at a good price and make sure it reaches its local market.  I don't know they'll do this but I really hope American innovation and entrepreneurialism figures it out.  I'd be curious to know what everyone else thinks.

Geithner's plan can work


I don't like the TPM headline this morning, 'Poor early reviews for Geithner Plan'.  The view from some ideological economists is not favorable, but that doesn't represent all opinion on the subject.  The people who don't like the plan are operating based on certain assumptions, which may be wrong.  They believe Larry Summers and Geithner want to give Wall Street a handout and would go puppy hunting with Dick Cheney if they had more free time.  They also are assuming that toxic assets are all worth zero.  As some of you probably noticed, DC Danny argued against this assumption in a great post over the weekend that triggered a firestorm of conversation.

John Gapper, chief business commentator from the FT doesn't hate Geithner's plan, nor does he see him as the devil incarnate. 

...the plan is quite cleverly structured to split the equity returns between the government and ensure that the private sector asset managers bid for the assets, rather than the government trying to establish the right price....

If this were the only thing the government was doing, as it would have been under the original Tarp plan, then I would agree it was inadequate. Banks also needed injections of fresh capital, which was why Mr Paulson veered towards using the Tarp funds to provide preferred equity...

But, as part of a broad package of rescue measures, it seems to me that the public-private plan has a place. Although it is not perfect - no plan that tried to meet its aims would be - it strikes what feels, at least on first glance, like a decent balance between the need to support banks and the taxpayer's interests.

He also points out that the Treasury makes a distinction between distressed loans and distressed securities, which have bundled up the loans.  The treasury is offering 6-1 leverage on loans and 1-1 leverage on securities (possibly up to 2-1).  This shows some nuance on the Treasury's part...The leverage they are offering on the more esoteric securities is much more conservative than the leverage they are offering on the more straightforward loans.

This plan could really kick-start trading of these distressed assets and ultimately drive up the price.  There's a real chance that the taxpayer could make money here and the banks will start marking up assets that they've already marked down, thusly improving their capital.  It's become conventional wisdom that the assets are 'toxic' and the plan is nothing more than 'cash for trash'.  I believe this is a flawed view on these assets.  90+% of mortgages are still current.  Those mortgages are based on physical properties.  So why are some so certain that they are worthless?

People who hold this view are saying that if the market is willing to pay 30 cents on the dollar for them, well then, that must be what they're worth.  This is such flawed thinking that has become popular amongst progressives who correctly poo-poo free market ideological BS.  Markets are rational and efficient in the long-term, but who really believes they are rational and efficient in the short-term?  Were the old pets.com or numerous other internet companies every really worth hundreds of dollars per share or was that just bogus 'value' based on short-term irrationality?  In reality, there is market value and then there is intrinsic value.  When assets are distressed or irrationally exuberant, the two values tend to have a huge gap between them, especially in the context of today's leveraged hedge fund driven range-trading.  Markets are always oversold or overbought.

Another major flaw in this thinking, is that it does not factor in the volume of a market bid.  If there is a bond issue with a billion dollar face value, and someone bids 30 cents for $2mm worth of bonds, it's not a large enough bid to definitively define the 'market price'.  Finally, a low-ball bid is sometimes just a low-ball bid.  I'd be willing to pay 500 bucks to buy TPM.  If no one else has offered to buy TPM (which I doubt because obviously TPM is awesome or maybe even a little too awesome) does that mean my bid is what TPM is worth? I know this is a silly and far from perfect example, but I hope it makes the point.

If the plan doesn't involve nationalization/receivership and firing of every last bank executive, it seems that certain folks aren't going to like any plan that Geithner puts forth.  I can understand this line of thinking, but I don't understand the certainty that comes with it.  Insolvency may be the reality and receivership may be the option for certain banks.  What is being forgotten, is that the receivership option will be helped by the stress tests and is happening on a regular basis (especially on Fridays) to some smaller institutions. Putting the major banks into receivership (if that's the right move) must be executed flawlessly and so far, the Treasury has not finished its stress tests and has not executed the capital investment part of the stability plan.  If receivership is the option, why telegraph that to the market and cause a panic until you have all the facts?  If it's the option, why do it until you have thought out every single domino and unintended consequence?

My coffee was bad this morning, I blame Geithner


Also, I'm not too happy about how he made it snow on the first day of spring either.  It's supposed to be a low of 27 degrees tomorrow.  What an ASSHOLE.  Don't even get me started on his friend Obama...

Rahm's right, AIG bonuses are a distraction


So, by no means am I going all Santelli here, saying $165 mm is no big deal.  It's twisted that the individuals who may be most responsible for the global financial crisis are getting paid millions and not going to jail.

Rahm is right though...This is taking away from more important things.  I'm angry too, but is $165 mm any worse than the $180 billion we've already given to AIG?  By now, are any of us really surprised how low some of these Wall St. executives can go?  To be honest, these bonuses tick me off but I'm more upset that my healthcare premium just increased 22%.  

The administration is coming up with a simple solution: tack on the $165mm to the billions that AIG already owes us. This may be a lame and less satisfying solution, but I'm worried that spending congressional time and energy on punitive action will take focus away from the bigger picture.  Congress is rightfully angry, but in my opinion, their time is better spent approving appointments to the treasury so there is more staff in place to prevent this $hit from happening again.

I'd love to see these fuqers thoroughly b*tch slapped but not at the expense of healthcare, clean energy, and a financial stability plan.  Obama said 'we can't govern by anger' and I think that's something that we have to remember.  Populism has its place, but it can be very detrimental to progress and can lead to irrational anger.  I hope congress and Obama's supporters focus on the bigger issues and let the Justice Department and new financial regulation deliver the punishment that these a$$holes deserve.

Progressives, give Geithner a chance


There's been a chorus of pessimism from all fronts about Tim Geithner.  It's being expressed by liberal columnists/bloggers, comedians, most pundits, and the ideological right.  It's one of the few things these disparate groups are united on.  On one hand, some of the criticism may be legit as the financial stability plan's expectations management by the Administration and Treasury was poor.  On the other hand, I believe most of the criticism is unfair when you examine the context of the situation.  Geithner's task is no less than saving the world.  If the financial system and the economy collapse, the future we voted for that Obama wants to implement will be impossible.  Around the world, nationalism and extremism will rise, and bad actors will be able to exploit fear and economic distress.  It's scary to think about it, but in that world the only way to get out of economic depression is to start a massive war.

The Geithner/Obama economic to do list: 1) save the global banking and financial system 2) fix the housing market 3) help create and enact policies that create jobs and balance the tax code for average Americans 4) implement healthcare, energy, & education reform in a fiscally responsible way 5)  re-tool the auto industry 6) get credit flowing (in reality banks are still lending, but finance companies have disappeared) 7) Hire a full staff for the treasury department 8) Completely overhaul the regulatory framework for the financial system 9) Navigate the extremely complex politics of tasks 1 - 8

Oh by the way, Secretary Geithner, do all this while dealing with an impatient mainstream media that doesn't understand economics and is driven by fear and bogus distractions.  Do all this, while 'centrist' or 'free market' Senators care more about their own press releases rather than the right policy for the country.  Do all this while citizens and some elected officials are legitimately concerned about protecting taxpayers and average people.  Do all this, while most Americans and mainstream journalists don't understand basic economics, let alone the complexities and systemic risks of the modern cowboy financial markets.  Do all this, while politicians and some of the media screams bloody murder because the Dow and 401k values are down, while simultaneously complaining about Wall Street greed.  So far Americans still support Obama and believe that he is more in touch with their plight than the haters.  I worry though, that the haters will spread more fear and make Americans more impatient and therefore erode Obama's political support.

Part of this is Geithner and the White House's own doing.  The major mistake that Geithner has made, of which he admitted to last night on Charlie Rose, was expectations management.  I blame the White House for this more than Geithner.  It's one of the few mistakes they have made and I can understand why it happened that way.  People wanted all the solutions mapped out when Geithner made his Financial Stability Plan announcement (less than 20 days after he was sworn in).  Obama telegraphed that Geithner was going to lay out a detailed plan, when in reality he was always planning on laying out a broad strategy, with tactical details to be rolled out in the following weeks.  The pundits were upset that they didn't have all the answers right away and Wall Street and its political and media enablers were mad that it wasn't a dump truck full of cash coming their way.

Maybe Geithner is technocratic and dull in front of the press or a congressional hearing, but I could care less, even though this for some reason offends pundits.  I trust him because he's careful with his words, protective of the average American taxpayer, smart, seems to have strong backbone, is experienced with financial crises, has been known to tell Larry Summers 'No', and has the confidence of President Obama (<-- I still get amazed when I say or write that two-word phrase).  Most importantly, I believe his policies and implementation strategies are going to fix the economy, as long as Obama maintains his political will and congress doesn't get in the way.

The point I'm making is not just a complaint about the haters.  Instead, this is about the liberal economists and bloggers who are being tough on Geithner.  I don't include them in the hater group.  On the contrary, they are bringing up valid concerns and policy points. It's incumbent upon all of us progressives who voted for Obama to keep his Administration honest and hold them accountable.  With that said, I believe the cynicism and negativity takes away from their points and makes it harder for the administration to do its job.  Their criticism is sometimes more destructive and angry, rather than constructive and helpful.  I understand these opinions and emotions, but they feed impatience and fear.  Quite frankly, in my humble opinion, these posts can also cross the line from legit critique to unfair complaining.

This group, thinks receivership of the banks is the only answer.  I also tend to think that this option is very possible and necessary for a few of the major banks.  This is a satisfying solution on many fronts.  It punishes bad actors and investors and it looks better on the surface for the taxpayers.  What's being forgotten, is that whatever Geithner decides to do with the banks is going to be a political minefield and can trigger an economic panic and misinterpretation if implemented and communicated the wrong way.  Because the financial system is interconnected in so many complex ways, the receivership option may trigger other consequences that we all have no idea about.  This is a reality of the financial system and Geithner has to deal with the system as it is, not as we want it to be.  

Obama has to carefully manage the politics of the bank fix.  There's a small window that he has to crawl through perfectly and at the exact right time (think Luke Skywalker and the Death Star's achilles heal at the end of Star Wars) given the impatience and anger with the banks and the money already spent.  He is going to have to spend a lot of political capital to convince congress that his plan is the right way to go.  If the bank fix or receivership is executed poorly, it risks the passing of Obama's budget, which is filled with policies that we voted for.  He and Geithner are waiting till they have all their ducks in a row, before they come out with details and a decisive plan of action that they'll be willing to defend and fight for.  If the stress tests show that receivership of a few banks is necessary, then my guess is that news will break on a Friday night that a few banks were given capital infusions, a few were put in receivership, and all the ones that are still alive will participate in the public-private toxic asset fund program.

We voted for President Obama because he was a leader who always took the long-view.  Every time there was concern about his approach in the short-term, he continually proved that he and his team were smarter than everyone else, strategically speaking.  This is a heartening thing to have in a President, especially when he believes in policies that most of us are desperately hoping for.  Let's be more patient and optimistic (cautiously) about his Treasury Secretary.  Let's give him credit for a pretty good track record so far: 1) stimulus 2) good housing plan 3) a budget that screams change and 21st century.  For the rest of his to-do list, I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt, at least for another couple/few months.

More clarity on the financial stability plan??


It looks like the Obama administration is beginning to formulate the next steps of their financial stability plan, as per yesterday's dense, jargon-filled statement from the treasury. Here's my interpretation (with a few notes in parentheses):  

Under this program, which will be initiated on February 25, the capital needs of the major U.S. banking institutions will be evaluated under a more challenging economic environment.

Stress test starts today...

Should that assessment indicate that an additional capital buffer is warranted, institutions will have an opportunity to turn first to private sources of capital.  Otherwise, the temporary capital buffer will be made available from the government.  This additional capital does not imply a new capital standard and it is not expected to be maintained on an ongoing basis. Instead, it is available to provide a cushion against larger than expected future losses, should they occur due to a more severe economic environment, and to support lending to creditworthy borrowers. 

If the stress test shows a solvent bank that still needs more capital, the bank can try and raise private investment first.  If private investors don't want a piece, the government will step in and invest in the bank.  However, this investment will be a one time thing and it won't be made available to keep zombie's alive.  The point of this investment is to provide solvent banks with additional capital so they can lend to good borrowers even in a scenario where $hit really hits the fan.  

Any government capital will be in the form of mandatory convertible preferred shares, which would be converted into common equity shares only as needed over time to keep banks in a well-capitalized position and can be retired under improved financial conditions before the conversion becomes mandatory.

The government's investment will be in the form of preferred shares (a hybrid security that has debt and equity characteristics.  i believe it's viewed as debt on the balance sheet) that can be converted to common shares (regular stocks that anyone can buy) at the banks request or after a specific time period.  The bank has the option of paying back the preferred investment if their financial situation improves.  They also can convert to common shares if it improves their balance sheet.  (Preferred stock is not included in Tangible Common Equity (TCE), a key metric that shows the bank's capital position.  Common shares are part of TCE.  If the preferred shares convert to common shares, the government will then have more voting control (in some cases majority or plurality) and it will also have upside if the bank ultimately ends up doing well and its stock price increases.  Of course, with this improvement, the taxpayer investment is also riskier because common stock is riskier than preferred.  However, in the grand scheme of things, the taxpayer is better off because of increased control/upside at no additional expense.  Simultaneously, if the government's pref is converted to common shares, then the bank is in better position to raise private capital and has an incentive to start lending again instead of hustling to pay off the preferred shares.  Also, I believe this would also put the government in good position to push for receivership if things end up being even worse than what the stress test analysis shows.)

Previous capital injections under the Troubled Asset Relief Program will also be eligible to be exchanged for the mandatory convertible preferred shares.  The conversion feature will enable institutions to maintain or enhance the quality of their capital.

We also want to clean up a Paulson mistake.  Banks who received TARP I funds, will have the option to change the deal terms so that the preferred stock will have the same common share conversion features as described above.  TARP I banks can either maintain their capital position or improve it by converting to common shares.  (The government has the same benefits described above, the banks can improve their balance sheet, and we don't have to spend another dime for this to happen).

"Currently, the major U.S. banking institutions have capital in excess of the amounts required to be considered well capitalized.  This program is designed to ensure that these major banking institutions have sufficient capital to perform their critical role in our financial system on an ongoing basis and can support economic recovery, even under an economic environment that is more challenging than is currently anticipated. 

So far, the major banks in the US are totally solvent.  If we were being 100% honest here, we wouldn't be saying this.  However, it's a very tight rope that we're walking here (kinda like the guy from Man on Wire) and our words can scare people $hitless if they are misstated or misinterpreted.  We have to project confidence because of the cable TV pundits who have a tendency to get hysterical.  Why do you think this statement is so dense and cryptic?  But anyway, there probably are a decent amount of major banks out there  that are not completely insolvent.  This program is really to help those banks just in case $hit does end up hitting the fan. 

The customers and the providers of capital and funding can be assured that as a result of this program participating banks will be able to move forward to provide the credit necessary for the stabilization and recovery of the U.S. economy.  Because our economy functions better when financial institutions are well managed in the private sector, the strong presumption of the Capital Assistance Program is that banks should remain in private hands."

Borrowers and investors can be confident that this will stabilize the credit markets and the overall economy.  We don't want the government to run banks.  Seriously.  We don't want that to happen.  Sleep easy pundits and other people who don't know what they're talking about but still have a platform to talk.  Also, smart folks like Roubini, etc. notice that we haven't ruled out receivership ;-|  Trust us on this issue.  It's our ace in the hole and politically, we can only initiate receivership once we have the results of the stress test.  At the very least, the move to convert to common shares simultaneously buys time to perform the stress test and gives the banks a lifeline and chance to make things work without more taxpayer money.  Investors are starting to realize that " while a larger government stake would initially hurt existing shareholders, it would be better for them in the long run."  If we pull this off, we're going to be viewed as heroes because there's potential to: save the system, give banks the chance to get private capital to fix their balance sheets, reduce taxpayer expenditure, increase taxpayer upside, and preserve the option to put banks into receivership if needed.

OK, so that's how I see the statement.  I'd love to hear from others who may see it another way. I feel like this is a dog whistle statement from Geithner to not scare people, but also let people know that he wants to protect the taxpayer and preserve the receivership option.  I thought Obama's statement last night about holding bank executives responsible, indicated that they were going to start firing people at banks that receive TARP II money.  Preferred investors often put a lot of conditions on management and governance, so there's no reason that Geithner/Obama can't replace management.  I'd bet they'll do this once they have the results of the stress test.  See Obama's statement below:

Third, we will act with the full force of the federal government to ensure that the major banks that Americans depend on have enough confidence and enough money to lend even in more difficult times. And when we learn that a major bank has serious problems, we will hold accountable those responsible, force the necessary adjustments, provide the support to clean up their balance sheets, and assure the continuity of a strong, viable institution that can serve our people and our economy.

Isn't Citi proposing real nationalization?


Many, including TPM, have called attention to the semantics of the terms nationalization and receivership.  Roubini, Greenspan, Graham, Krugman, and most progressives are actually proposing receivership and not nationalization.  The news made today (if I'm interpreting things correctly) is that it looks like Citi has offered the government nationalization in the true sense of the word.  So far, I haven't seen anyone point out this irony...

According to wikipedia's page on receivership:  "In law, a receiver is a person "placed in the custodial responsibility for the property of others, including tangible and intangible assets and rights."

i.e. if managers and shareholders of a bank really screw up, the FDIC or some other government agency steps in and temporarily takes custodial control.  Existing shareholders are wiped out, they clean up the bank's assets, fire the managers, and sell it off the leftovers to private buyers.

According to the wikipedia page on nationalization: Nationalization is the act of taking an industry or assets into the public ownership of a national government or state.

i.e. if the government owns a majority or plurality of the equity of a particular company or industry, it is a nationalized company or industry.

Citi proposed that the government convert its preferred shares (viewed as mezzanine debt during the stress test) into common shares (equity).  If this happens the government will have a plurality of Citi shares and majority stakes in other banks if they apply this strategy to other banks that received TARP funds.

Citi wants this, because it strengthens their balance sheet by reducing debt and increasing tangible common equity.  But while they make this proffer to the government, is Citi ironically proposing a plan that involves nationalization in the true sense of the word?

Either way, it seems like this is a step that is being well received by the Obama administration and I think I see why.  It dilutes shareholders, gives the government more equity/influence, and doesn't cost any additional capital.  Maybe Citi uses its improved balance sheet to avoid receivership if they can prove they are solvent.  More likely, the government's new role as the biggest shareholder can make receivership the logical next step if the stress test proves insolvency.

This explains a lot about blago and burris


See this clip of sleazy politician Clay Davis from the HBO show The Wire.  He's a baltimore version of blago except Clay is a little more silver-tongued.  It's priceless.

samaestro

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  • Location new york
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  • Politics progressive on social issues 'centrist' on fiscal issues i.e. i like progressive taxation, i don't like wasteful spending (who does??). i'm capitalist so long as companies respect a modern version of a progressive social contract basically, i feel like obama is my ideal president because he's essentially an independent disguised as a Dem (not that i don't like Dems).

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  • Favorite Quotes 'They said this day would never come' Obama Iowa speech; 'All the pieces matter' Lester Freamon from the Wire

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Born and raised in small town PA. Muslim immigrant parents came in 70s. Went to college in DC, majored in Econ, worked on wall street for 3 years. Left at the end of '04 and stumbled into co-founding a renewable energy business.

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