This January, I had the great pleasure of watching all five seasons of the HBO show
The Wire from start to finish. The creator of the show,
David Simon, was a reporter at the Baltimore Sun for 12 years before he began his television career. Simon and his writing partner,
Ed Burns, a former Baltimore homicide detective and schoolteacher, told the story of the American City from a different perspective each season: the street, the dying working class, city hall, the school system, and the city newspaper, in this case the Baltimore Sun.
If you haven't seen the show, I highly recommend you put it on your to do list for 2009. I suggest that
you buy all five seasons and don't make too many plans for a month, because once you start watching the DVDs it's like reading an epic novel that you can't put down. It explains the world through the microcosm of the city of Baltimore and it makes you think and feel more than any other show that has ever been on TV.
The show is focused on Baltimore and is rich with amazing characters but the real protagonist of all 60 episodes is the American City. In the last season, Simon presciently and sadly shows the decay of the city newspaper, but also shows how important the city paper is to the local community. In addition to viewing this wonderful visual novel, a few things have happened in the last year or so that have made me think about the future of news in America...
1) I discovered TPM in early '08 based on the recommendation of a friend 2) Was lucky enough to witness one of the most amazing elections in modern history 3) The Seattle PI, the Rocky Mountain news, and numerous other city papers have closed up shop 4) I was given an IPod Touch as a gift and now I can easily read NYT, Bloomberg, and USA Today in a very convenient E-Reader Format. 5) I put up my first ever blog post about two months ago on TPM
I've been meaning to write this post for a while and this morning I came across
an interview with David Simon, which predicts an era of political corruption in America's cities because of the fall of the daily city newspaper. This is exactly what was in my head, especially after finishing The Wire. I won't spoil it for you, but last season of The Wire shows the dwindling of resources devoted to real reporting and the increasing ease for political and systemic corruption. With all the city papers closing up shop, I worry about the citizenry's ability to get the facts and to hold the local system accountable. If there isn't an investment in high quality reporters who are digging for the facts,
an already corrupt system is going to get worse.
In general, the business model of news delivery is undergoing rapid transformation. Some of it is distressing and worrisome, but some of it is very exciting. I feel that the market will ultimately provide its customers with the format and quality that is both needed and wanted on the national front, however I am worried about a sustainable business model that will service and reach local communities that no longer have a daily city paper.
To me TPM is very exciting as a sustainable news model because Josh has been able to maintain independence, make money (I am assuming this), successfully marry reporting-blogging, and continue to grow and deliver a fantastic product. It's a great twist on the old model. Advertising revenue combined with voluntary contributions instead of subscriptions. This is sustainable because all of us are TPM addicts and we bring traffic to the sight. Because we're able to have our own forum on the site, it feels like a co-op, where we have a stake in the site and therefore have every incentive to make sure it thrives (For example, it seems like Josh's request for us to fill out his survey a couple weeks ago was very successful). No printing or distribution costs (environmentally friendly), which allows investment into high quality human resources. We as readers are also sources for tips and facts, which vastly expands TPM's reporting base wiki-style. Right now, TPM may be a niche, but often times businesses are described as niches because competition couldn't establish itself in that 'niche' even if they tried. This is
a classic Blue Ocean business model, where the competition is irrelevant and the product provides both value AND something new/unique.
To state the obvious, E-Readers and the internet are the platform for future news delivery. I think some sites will and are trying to imitate the TPM aggregator/blog/unique content model and others will have the Google News aggregator model, where they get paid for advertisements and each click. The traditional newspapers and weekly periodicals will eventually charge subscription fees for access to online content. Hopefully, the different models deliver revenue to the journalists and newswires in a way that is economically sustainable.
I also think there will still be a place for print, although I think only for the NYT or the Wa Po, and maybe a few of the other big papers that have their loyal customers across the country. I think that print news subscriptions will continue to become more expensive and maybe will become limited to the weekend edition (by the way, honk if you hate the NYT weekender commercial). Older generations will pay up for it, but at a certain point, I think the market will fully shift towards the e-reader or the internet. This
back of the envelope analysis, says that it would cost less for the NYT to give all its subscribers free Kindles than it does to print and distribute the paper each year. This is a simplified analysis, but it is pretty eye opening nonetheless. Ever since I downloaded the NYT app to my Ipod, I have read more and more of the NYT. It's a great format, it's free, and it's perfect for the subway. However, I don't see how this is a sustainable business practice and eventually it seems this app and most online news sites will have to have a fee associated with it.
I think the FT.com has addresses the subscription fee in a very interesting way that allows
different levels of access. Casual viewers can see a few free articles per 30 days. Registered viewers can get up to 19. Then there are a few levels of pay service, which allows further access. This model seems to appeal to all types of people who want the FT product. They don't create a big barrier for casual viewers who want free access. The pricing for full access is competitive and similar to print subscriptions. I think this will be the winning model for individual newspaper websites. The aggregators will foot part of this bill in order to provide its customers with free but still high quality news and they will benefit from increased traffic and advertising revenue.
So, while I think I have figured out how some aspects of the news business will survive and hopefully thrive, I still am worried about smaller city dailies. Going full circle to The Wire and to David Simon's concern about increased city corruption without the fourth estate there as a watchdog, does anyone have an idea how the news model can work for local reporting? The smaller and medium-sized cities have a smaller customer base, therefore the news outlets have limited opportunity to benefit from economies of scale. Locals seem to like getting their physical paper, even if they just glance at the headlines and head straight for the sports section. It seems like this customer is not going to go out of their way to check out the locals news website and it doesn't seem like they'd pay for it. As David Simon points out, 'it costs money to do good journalism' so how can a local community get a quality news product that focuses on their city?
Consolidated newspaper companies will have to somehow maintain franchises in the smaller and medium sized cities, and they must figure out how to deliver the product and maintain easy access.
Independent local sites are going to have to figure out how to deliver local news at a good price and make sure it reaches its local market. I don't know they'll do this but I really hope American innovation and entrepreneurialism figures it out. I'd be curious to know what everyone else thinks.