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Week of March 30, 2008 - April 5, 2008

McCain's Edge Exaggerated?


We get a constant reminder every time we check Election Central and see the poll tracker at the top: 

Head to head, McCain would beat Obama by a margin that's now outside the margin of error, and he'd beat Clinton by an even bigger margin.

But how does the current Democratic nomination process factor into those poll results?

We already know that 20% (or however many) of Obama supporters claim they'd rather vote for McCain than Hillary, and that about as many of her supporters say the same about Obama.  But it seems that the conventional wisdom is that after the nominee is finally determined, those numbers will drop significantly as everyone gets over it and most voters who backed the losing candidate realize it will be best to vote for the prevailing Democrat, even if s/he wasn't their favorite.

So wouldn't it follow that when Hillary supporters or Obama supporters get those calls from the pollsters that, when asked about the candidate they aren't supporting, they're artificially skewing the results in a way that benefits McCain? That the same kind of kneejerk response that comes from being emotionally invested in their preferred candidate is impacting the McCain vs. Obama and McCain vs. Clinton polls?

I wouldn't be surprised to see whoever becomes the Democratic candidate take a pretty quick jump out ahead of McCain once the dust from the nomination process settles.
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ryoma

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