What is happening on the ground in Colorado!
Folks, you in NY, DC, IL or CA might be consumed by the press and media perceptions of how the campaign is being played out on the TV but the results on the ground in Colorado are telling a different story. This past week the estimated five thousand or so volunteers in Colorado have been recording results that are showing a definitive and conspicuous move by the electorate towards Obama. You may have seen the three polls released yesterday where Obama has averaged a 2.3% gain where before the conventions the polls were mixed with McCain holding 1% or Obama leading.
What you don't have are samples of literally multiples of tens of thousands of actual voters. In Colorado the largest segment of the voting electorate are Unaffiliated or Independent voters with Republicans holding a slight advantage over Democrats in registration although since 2002 the trend in the state has been precipitously Democratic with the election Sen. John Salazar in 2004 or Coors in a close race, when Bush carried the state Then Gov Ritter's surprisingly strong win over GOP Congressman Bob Beauprez where also a Democrat was elected State Treasurer and Attorney General alongside majorities in both state legislatures.
The current trends are amazing especially in conservative CD 5 (Colorado Springs) where what is known as sporadic Democrats (some time voters) are declaring Obama support almost 9 to 1 and Independents are stating the same 2 to 1 against McCain with 1 still undecided. Now in Colorado the formula is simple; Salazar got 33% in Colorado Springs (CD5) and correspondingly win strong in Pueblo, Boulder, Adams and Denver Counties and split Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties (suburban Denver). Ritter received almost 40% in CD5 and won by an easy margin two years later. The Obama campaign believes 36-38% from Colorado Springs would insure a win Colorado and we are now trending well above that number.
The Obama campaign believes it will be able to contact every targeted voter personally before Mail-In balloting begins on October 6th. In targeted districts we are almost through contacting Independents and crossover Republicans and working through sporadic Democrats. This of course is not sexy, nor is it objective reporting but it is what is going on at the doors and over the phones with actual voters.
When volunteers talk directly with voters the express the issues of economy/jobs, energy, education, healthcare and the war as predominent issues. Palin's effect has actually been counter-productive here where Colorado has already been through a generation of culture wars that resulted in nothing but ineffective and wasteful governance. In fact some remember how Colorado Springs largest school district's BOE was taken over by Right-wing evangelicals where in 2006 they were recalled and removed after spending over $1M on defending lawsuits over their biased policies and hiring and then firing a superintendent in less than a year. This and other episodes have had a residual effect in even the 16th most conservative CD in the US.
What you don't have are samples of literally multiples of tens of thousands of actual voters. In Colorado the largest segment of the voting electorate are Unaffiliated or Independent voters with Republicans holding a slight advantage over Democrats in registration although since 2002 the trend in the state has been precipitously Democratic with the election Sen. John Salazar in 2004 or Coors in a close race, when Bush carried the state Then Gov Ritter's surprisingly strong win over GOP Congressman Bob Beauprez where also a Democrat was elected State Treasurer and Attorney General alongside majorities in both state legislatures.
The current trends are amazing especially in conservative CD 5 (Colorado Springs) where what is known as sporadic Democrats (some time voters) are declaring Obama support almost 9 to 1 and Independents are stating the same 2 to 1 against McCain with 1 still undecided. Now in Colorado the formula is simple; Salazar got 33% in Colorado Springs (CD5) and correspondingly win strong in Pueblo, Boulder, Adams and Denver Counties and split Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties (suburban Denver). Ritter received almost 40% in CD5 and won by an easy margin two years later. The Obama campaign believes 36-38% from Colorado Springs would insure a win Colorado and we are now trending well above that number.
The Obama campaign believes it will be able to contact every targeted voter personally before Mail-In balloting begins on October 6th. In targeted districts we are almost through contacting Independents and crossover Republicans and working through sporadic Democrats. This of course is not sexy, nor is it objective reporting but it is what is going on at the doors and over the phones with actual voters.
When volunteers talk directly with voters the express the issues of economy/jobs, energy, education, healthcare and the war as predominent issues. Palin's effect has actually been counter-productive here where Colorado has already been through a generation of culture wars that resulted in nothing but ineffective and wasteful governance. In fact some remember how Colorado Springs largest school district's BOE was taken over by Right-wing evangelicals where in 2006 they were recalled and removed after spending over $1M on defending lawsuits over their biased policies and hiring and then firing a superintendent in less than a year. This and other episodes have had a residual effect in even the 16th most conservative CD in the US.
