It has taken me awhile to see the obvious but now it is apparent for I have given the Republicans too much credit OR they continue to give the American electorate too little due. Either way it appears the inevitable is upon them. Essentially the Republican mindset is all about "branding" the selling of the idea, (remember the "marketplace of ideas" credo), but as the pundits who are mislabeled as strategists continue to state that the Republican brand is very poor I have come to realize what they did and what they are still trying to do.

Yesterday Norquist came up with a bad metaphor calling out that Obama is simply "John Kerry with a tan". How crass, how utterly insulting, how utterly shallow and stupid---actually in his own circles some might have laughed for the Republican mind is always about making serious fun about any political opponent. But it was an attempt to brand Obama, a failed on like how used car dealers brand their competitors---without much thought.

Rove the other day tried another tack saying that Obama was the guy in the "country club who hangs back and drinks a martini, smoking a cigarette and making snide remarks about everyone." REALLY...Obama in what country club and where? I recall how Michael Jordan in Chicago during is championship runs couldn't join one of the North Shore elite (white) clubs but was always a guest of someone. Anyway what he was trying to do was brand Obama as a Dukakis elite, as Barack is not like regular voters----like Rove or Bush is?

The trouble is the Republicans still believe in their spin, their branding of Guns, God and Gays as their magical wedge issues, now loosing their effect. California and Massachusetts have actual gay marriages, while New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Oregon and New Jersey  now have civil unions with Iowa working through its courts also recognizing same-sex marriage.. The wrath of God has not befallen on any of these locations nor has their societies fallen into moral disasters. And now that the Republicans now have their cold dead hands rightfully around their pistols in a 5-4 dissenting opinion they have lost another wedge issue.

The obvious is that there is a rational reason why every Republican seat is now at risk as one senior party official openly admitted as a 3rd incumbent seat in what seemed to be a super safe Congressional district lost. Maybe it is is the math, no not the Democratic Delegat Math , the real electorate math that branding tricks will not whitewash over.  It is this math: 7  1/2 years of the Bush Administration TIMES 5 years in the Iraq War PLUS the eye-opening incompetence of the Katrina  Response MINUS the equities in America's homes PLUS the price of gasoline (squared) TIMES the price of food by how it has DIVIDED our nation in witnessing Abu Ghraib TIMES  torture TIMES rendition TIMES Gitmo TIMES PLAMEGATE PLUS the  new Terrorists it has created and the opportunity to train in Iraq,  MINUS  Wall Streets manipulations, PLUS Executive Pay & parachute's  TIMES the perpetual unemployment and finally all it SQUARED by the lack of healthcare reform TIMES the cost of basic healthcare------That math, the math that determines whether government is relevant to its citizen's lives. This is the Republican Brand my friends,  and when I was  a junior corporate exec I would have said this kind of brand is classic bankruptcy. 

And yet they are going to try to brand Obama like they did Dukakis (the east-coast elite), Bill Clinton (the womanizing Bubba) , Al Gore, (the story exaggerator) and John Kerry  (the fake war hero and elitist). The reason that worked was America was not paying attention but because the Republicans have bankrupted us so bad with all that above it is not going to work. 

It started out when she shed a tear in New Hampshire, but even before that in Iowa when she was caught front-loading questions, or when she was "ganged up" by the "boys" when she double-talked in a national debate before the primaries. She has always been the victim. Reviewing it all she has been a victim to the following: The Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy (which she sat down with with Murdock and Scaiffe), victim of the race card in revere, sexism, misogyny, elitism, the press, Tim Russert and gotchaism, auditory prejudice, Democratic Party nominating rules, caucus states, little meaningless states, Internet campaign fund-raising ignorance, elitism, good memory, press archives, her last card is the Rules and Bylaws which she had an original stacked deck majority.

It is a victim mentality. It is what regressive oriented politics is all about. It is the underlying conscience that fed the Nazi's  in their right wing reactionary politics in the 20th Century, it is what has fed our current right wing evangelical and  Republican white regressive politics.

Hillary you are the last person who is a victim except maybe listening to the high priced former experts like Sean Penn who didn't understand the Democratic Party nomination was not winner take all or how to actually get down and dirty and run a street level, grass roots campaign in caucus states. It is the arrogant and acid-tongue Howard Wolfson be your spokesperson, it is creating nominating math as you go and it is having a former President who tarnishes his personal reputation with each stated syllable

Chuck Todd's First Read's post that the proposed compromise that the Dem's will seat full delegations with half votes under the following plan (FL-delegates pledged by vote) and (MI-delegation split 50/50) including 1/2 votes for superdelegates brings the new magic number up to 2118.

Computing the entire spread sheet it brings the new delegate landscape to the following: Obama 2057 (pledged, superdelegates and Edwards) and Clinton 1873 (pledged and superdelegates). This puts Obama 61 short of the nomination with him expected to gather between 38-42 pledged delegates over the next three primaries. He is also favored to pick up the lone ME Add-On delegate bringing his closure total down to between 22-18 delegates.

Further projections have him gathering between 16-20 Add-On superdelegates through the remaining state conventions or committee meetings. Even at the maximum spread this puts Obama between 6 and 2 superdelegate endorsements short of the nomination.

Hmmm...there is that Pelosi Pledged Club out there measuring 6 where once the winner of the pledged delegate state contests are over the Pelosi Pledged Club (numbering 6) are on record will endorse that winner. This is still the inevitable math.

What will be interesting is whether 22 plus superdelegates come out on June 3rd and make the Add-On process fait accompli and allow the process to fold in behind the winner.

The thing I want to say is the new math is no different than the old math, the winner is the one who has 50% plus 1 delegates.

Today the news is consumed by McClellan's seemingly "Whistleblower" confirmation of the systematic baseless of governing ethics regarding the Bush Administration. He confirms the culture of deceit and manipulation regarding the Iraq War and the Valarie Plame outing as in part, "the constant campaign stance" that inundates Washington DC's political climate. He used the word "propaganda" to describe Bush Administration's justification to go to war alongside a self-absorbed personal ego that the man, Bush held that he needed to be a war president to be considered great. Ironically the most recent war presidents have not been great, Ford, Nixon, Johnson.

Also yesterday CNN correspondent Yellin has come out saying that the news executives worked to massage the news to align it with the current popularity of the President and "patriotic" feelings in the country. Could someone say that the popularity and patriotism was enhanced and promoted by the reporting and editing? Of course. 

Hopefully what we are embarking is a deep soul searching of honesty in our culture. It is being fueled by the outcomes, the failed outcome of the Iraq War, the failure of ethics and respect for law regarding torture, the manipulation of information, the outing of a CIA asset for political reasons, the adjunct corruption, the speculation and exploitation of our nation's financial and housing markets, and the selling off our labor and job markets and even our drunken management of our basic food stores.

It is more than one Administration gone rogue, it is a society where values and ethics have been twisted so to allow the targeted ends to prevail over any form of social or legal principle.It is a greed soaked rush for exploitation of our own self, our neighbors and our own country.

It will be interesting how this works out. How a corporate based culture focused on profits can ably report the news that could be unpopular. We saw this model with CBS and the cigarette industry. Will this story be similar in the news organizations reporting on our government? When the Bush Administration is replaced will the justice system start going back and investigating and prosecuting for lawlessness and corruption?

What will this unleash, a backlash that all that was done was actually in the name of America and good, or will elections have consequences?

Today the news is consumed by McClellan's seemingly "Whistleblower" confirmation of the systematic baseless of governing ethics regarding the Bush Administration. He confirms the culture of deceit and manipulation regarding the Iraq War and the Valarie Plame outing as in part, "the constant campaign stance" that inundates Washington DC's political climate. He used the word "propaganda" to describe Bush Administration's justification to go to war alongside a self-absorbed personal ego that the man, Bush held that he needed to be a war president to be considered great. Ironically the most recent war presidents have not been great, Ford, Nixon, Johnson.

Also yesterday CNN correspondent Yellin has come out saying that the news executives worked to massage the news to align it with the current popularity of the President and "patriotic" feelings in the country. Could someone say that the popularity and patriotism was enhanced and promoted by the reporting and editing? Of course. 

Hopefully what we are embarking is a deep soul searching of honesty in our culture. It is being fueled by the outcomes, the failed outcome of the Iraq War, the failure of ethics and respect for law regarding torture, the manipulation of information, the outing of a CIA asset for political reasons, the adjunct corruption, the speculation and exploitation of our nation's financial and housing markets, and the selling off our labor and job markets and even our drunken management of our basic food stores.

It is more than one Administration gone rogue, it is a society where values and ethics have been twisted so to allow the targeted ends to prevail over any form of social or legal principle.It is a greed soaked rush for exploitation of our own self, our neighbors and our own country.

It will be interesting how this works out. How a corporate based culture focused on profits can ably report the news that could be unpopular. We saw this model with CBS and the cigarette industry. Will this story be similar in the news organizations reporting on our government? When the Bush Administration is replaced will the justice system start going back and investigating and prosecuting for lawlessness and corruption?

What will this unleash, a backlash that all that was done was actually in the name of America and good, or will elections have consequences?

Today the news is consumed by McClellan's seemingly "Whistleblower" confirmation of the systematic baseless of governing ethics regarding the Bush Administration. He confirms the culture of deceit and manipulation regarding the Iraq War and the Valarie Plame outing as in part, "the constant campaign stance" that inundates Washington DC's political climate. He used the word "propaganda" to describe Bush Administration's justification to go to war alongside a self-absorbed personal ego that the man, Bush held that he needed to be a war president to be considered great. Ironically the most recent war presidents have not been great, Ford, Nixon, Johnson.

Also yesterday CNN correspondent Yellin has come out saying that the news executives worked to massage the news to align it with the current popularity of the President and "patriotic" feelings in the country. Could someone say that the popularity and patriotism was enhanced and promoted by the reporting and editing? Of course. 

Hopefully what we are embarking is a deep soul searching of honesty in our culture. It is being fueled by the outcomes, the failed outcome of the Iraq War, the failure of ethics and respect for law regarding torture, the manipulation of information, the outing of a CIA asset for political reasons, the adjunct corruption, the speculation and exploitation of our nation's financial and housing markets, and the selling off our labor and job markets and even our drunken management of our basic food stores.

It is more than one Administration gone rogue, it is a society where values and ethics have been twisted so to allow the targeted ends to prevail over any form of social or legal principle.It is a greed soaked rush for exploitation of our own self, our neighbors and our own country.

It will be interesting how this works out. How a corporate based culture focused on profits can ably report the news that could be unpopular. We saw this model with CBS and the cigarette industry. Will this story be similar in the news organizations reporting on our government? When the Bush Administration is replaced will the justice system start going back and investigating and prosecuting for lawlessness and corruption>

Yes there was the now rousing Obermann 'Final Comment' which shows why Keith has one of the best research teams in the media that backed the "Assassination" subject in the corner. But what no one is broaching is that this apologetically described 'gaffe' is none other than a "Freudian Slip of the tongue". It ranks up there with saying the word "BOMB" on an airplane or "FIRE" in a crowded theater. It is more another gaffe which Keith went on how many times this campaign season has forgiven Hillary for the many other 'gaffe's' be it the "Bosinan Big Fish Story" or the "planting of Q's" in Iowa just to name a couple, she has uttered. But this one takes the proverbial "cake", like how Maria Antoinette is remembered in history saying "let them eat cake!" Thankfully last night the press was eating it up like how sharks in a feeding frenzy.

Going deeper, this "Freudian Slip of the tongue"----meaning a momentary exposure of an unspoken or subconscious thought [or worse, a wish] that Obama and his campaign would be there no more. Sure she was reaching in that interview, expanding a bit further what she has said before about June or RFK, answering the same inquiry from a constant group interrogation by the press, local and national, as to why specifically are she is remaining in the race despite the obvious second grade math land mounting $20M plus debt.  I mean her logic that a sudden Obama implosion reminds me of what my mother used to utter when she insisted I put on a clean pair of underwear back when I started driving a car---insinuating that if I crashed and hospitalized, at least I wouldn't be embarrassed by soiled underpants. My logical reply was always they probably would be blood stained then! But we know that was not a genuine concern, the fear was that I would crash the car, not soil the underwear.  The fear for Clinton here is that Obama will win the election and serve famously for eight years and leave her political legacy behind.

Yet there are many apologists excusing the 'supposed' gaffe as an example of exhaustion, but was it really? In more aptly fits an utterance expressing anger. Haven't your heard loved ones or even acquaintances say things like "I wish him [or her] dead". Or "they should hang the bastard", as if they know whether the human being was born out of wedlock. That said we know the meaning of those phrases in context----complete contempt for the person. Sure most are sorry afterward for saying such a mean and nasty thing, but it still showed a moment of serious contempt. In this case this contempt was in public, and ultimately possessing a serious and defining political consequence. I suspect many Democratic leaders who are associated or supportive of Clinton will quietly separate from her.

For me it actually shows her inexperience in the big political arena. Hillary Rodham Clinton might be a superior political wok but the role she honed over the 30 years was actually the chief supporter of her husband. Like it or not that was her role regardless of her own personal ambitions, the role as standard bearer does ably fit. And this gaffe, on top of the "lost count" ones that Obermann's research staff put together prove it regardless of her base of energized and stridently scorned support.

This now makes total sense why the remaining biggee's of the Dem Party super-duper delegates, those 49 Representatives, 15 Senators and 6 Governors, plus the 97 or so DNC members are sitting silent on the sidelines----they might not have to make a decision after all! Perfect cover, perfect politics, in fact they can say with all sincerity that the system actually worked---IF---Clinton exits on her own terms and even better for their own purposes---Clinton is the VP choice.

I thought it strange that only a Guam superdelegate (Pilar Lujan) publicly announced his endorsement yesterday where even the Obama campaign did not respond in kind letting Clinton her first day in months on this front. Furthermore there has only been seven total announcements where not even the so coined Pelosi Club (6) pledged to the winner of the pledged delegate victor did not come out and make their fateful endorsements.

Politics has its own drumbeats and when there is a pause, a change in tenor, a new sheet of music it is because there are things going on behind the scenes. The thing is now that CNN and the rest of the media hounds are on this trail there is going to be a lot of chatter. STAY TUNED.

Is it just me or am I waiting for the Congress and the Democrats to finally get some teeth in the game and take a bite out of the Bush Administration. Congress does have the legal and statutory right to subpoena and hold in contempt a person who does not comply. They just allowed the justice department to handle their contempt warrants, but if the Administration says "push" than push back and bring back their power.

Haul Rove and the others in front of the Congress and put them under oath. Do it now during the election season. 

Back in the day, when Bill Clinton was the battered President over personal transgressions that made many believe he had permanently tarnished the image of the Oval Office, there was another phenomena---namely the dotcom math. One only has to recall the mantra that many dotcom youthful moguls exclaimed when their was a new age, a new way to value companies, not with profits or revenues but with eyeballs. It was funny-money math.

Now here we go again, Hillary-math reduced to the exclamation that she has somehow, someway prevailed in the popular vote. First thing, for all America stands for in its 240 year democratic experiment we elect our Presidents through a republic system---meaning through delegates and electors. Secondly her math is totally false, in fact I think some of the old Arthur Andersen accountants who used to work on the Enron account have found their station on the Hillary campaign---maybe that is why her campaign is still $20M in debt while having a very good April in fund-raising.

Anyway here is a political science 101 course offering for Hillary fans, popular vote does not count in Presidential selections. Second even if it did Hillary's math is wrong. To get where she wants to say this she discounts the votes in the caucus votes---why because she ignored or didn't understand how to run a campaign in a caucus state. But in reality they record raw votes in caucus states for it is the raw vote that determines the pledged delegate apportionment from each precinct. But Hillary doesn't like this so she uses Hillary-math. By discounting one part of the process she counts another where the rules say doesn't count, in fact she likes to count votes where only she was on the ballot and by all accounts was a beauty contest and the other where there was no campaigning.

Okay but here is the trouble with Hillary-math, it still doesn't add up, for Obama still holds a 200,000 difference when you count FL & MI (for to be fair if you count Hillary votes than you have to count uncommitted as Obama votes). But, but, but no---those go to the uncommitted.  And there is where the whole scheme crashes---uncommitted to what or whom---delegates.

The votes are for delegates and by the way these delegate contests are weighted by Congressional Districts not statewide apportionment. This is why the whole popular vote thing is immaterial except in the realm of Hillary-math where Hillary gets to make up the rules as to what to include and what to exclude, where and when.

Funny thing that is what the dotcom accountants did. They counted eyeballs as values and liabilities as values and expenditures and assets. No different than how Enron counted their own transactions as sales or then again simply made them up too. Yes, Hillary-math has a long history.

So many have written how come Clinton is losing what was billed by every political expert as the inevitable election. On paper it seemed like a perfect set up, except that the voters have advanced well past the leaders and have been there since well back in '05, with seeds back in '03. Actually all one has to do is simply look at the calendar to see the obvious---what century are we in?

Obama is winning because he is speaking to the 21st Century Conscience, something that has been brewing since well-the Nixon Era. The seeds began with Earth Day, the Vietnam protests, Woman's Rights, Desegregation, ADA  and are now beginning to bear fruit. Those seeds were sewn to combat the divides in our 20th Century society that brought about horrendous war and suffering. Global communication and economies have challenged tribalism and nationalism where now the challenges of the 21st Century demand fundamental change in how our society is organized and valued.

It has been written by futurists and philosophers that society is no different than organisms in an ecosystem where cooperation and survival are intertwined as essential components for life. Nature finds a way and so does human society on top of the evolutionary chain. We know now that how the 20th Century organization is not working, simply look at our stresses to find out. I mean when did you ever think that America would openly admit that torture was an end that it needed to justify its means for a way of life?

Obama is winning because he is the only leader to rise and say he is going forward into the 21st Century and not back to the 20th Century. Sure there remains a Conservative backlash, reactionary forces who still are privileged who use fear and past values to challenge the uncertainty of change going forward. But many of us are products of that Nixon and post Nixon Era. We respect the necessity of the American Disabilities Act with much question. Desegregation has produced a generation now  approaching their mid '30's that does not fear racial differences or dark strangers walking down the street. Woman belong anywhere they like and can live anyway they want. An outgrowth of that is we are peeling back the ugly prejudice towards homosexuality with still many miles to travel but I see this being piled on the cultural war history books before my college-age children graduate their children from high school. The Vietnam war protests showed how bad the Establishment can be and now they fear to draft our children even to support their failed wars. And Earth Day  is now so deeply spread into our daily life that finally we might have a counter industrial revolution to save the planet.

Obama is winning because he is what the 21st Century needs to move on from the failures of the 20th Century.

My experiences with Clinton supporters, mostly woman, mostly woman in the demographic group between 45-60 years old, many are middle class but not affluent, educated and strident, many are minor party activists or local party leaders and all seem to wrap themselves in the Democratic Party flag as saying they are good Democrats while stunned they are in the minority.

My experiences as a local Democratic Party activist and official, a local ranking Obama volunteer organizer is one of many levels going back before the caucus of Super Tuesday to this weekend's State Convention is one of serious scorn and a deep seeded resentment that I am unsure as to their genuineness of actually being able to fold in behind the Obama ticket without Clinton. Before the caucus I was discounted by their leadership as to the veracity of the volunteer support  20 times their local volunteer support as I was naive and quaint to the estimates. The caucus was overwhelmed statewide, 1000% or more participation and Obama deluged Clinton 69% to 30%, locally and statewide. They were stunned, bitter and even resolved to prove it was corruption or a aberration. The process continued with the Clinton Party Leadership employing every obstacle and petty troublesome efforts in trying to suppress the votes with delay, credentials procedures et cetera, to no avail---Obama continued to carry through at the rate of 69%.

At this year's State Convention the unrepentant and strident Clinton supporters came with two signs apiece, united as a minority and yet their registrations waned below a full turnout. Terry Mac...the Clinton campaign manager came to the State Convention to speak on their behalf and spent most of the time trying to talk about unity and support in a superficial disingenuous manner, but when he tried to make the case that Clinton owned the popular vote through Hillary-Math, he was shouted down for 5 minutes by 69% Obama-"philes". He smiled and tried another tack...more 5 minutes of demonstrations....."Don't lie to us" yelled an Obama  delegate when things calmed down.

And there comes the truth for working as a volunteer helping the overflow crowd get to their cars and hotels conversations arose and they still remained scorned. They believe in the fantasy, the Clinton lie, the Hillary faith of illusion. It was never about the policies, the person, the leadership it was about them as woman getting their due. That was the quote, their due in their lifetime. They look at woman supporters of Obama as gender traitors, they scorn and they will have their wrath.

The good Democrats I know who are local party activists now are focusing on the local campaigns, and saying the words they want a Democrat to win in November. But then today there is Geraldine going on about sexism was to blame, where a political colleague and friend pointed to Ferraro's statement this morning as proof that the fix was in from the start. Proof of what I replied, this is politics.

And there you have it, the Clinton's have fed this campaign with all sorts of lies and emotional falsehoods. The inevitable illusion, the Super Tuesday idea, it is about feminism,not its not, it is about a bi-racial person is not qualified, (I can only recall Campanellis's statement about faculties where African Americans cannot be good baseball manager's), it is only a speech, she has all the white (err Appalachia votes), she was experienced in the White House, she landed under sniper fire, she can get the math, the superdelegates will come her way, she has the popular vote.

The real lie was that this was not really about politics and votes it was about dues.