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Week of July 19, 2009 - July 25, 2009

Obama's Achilles Heel


It's becoming clear that the biggest mistake that Obama permitted to occur was to listen to Paulson and Geithner.  If the Republicans were smart, they would figure out a way to ride the anti-bank hatred (or gin some up) to get him out of power.  To recap: the government gave the banks huge amounts of money, which they then: (1) repaid in bonuses; and (2) did not lend to businesses.
The only error that the banks have made is that they still have a whole mess of toxic commercial real estate paper (office buildings, strip malls, etc) that are wrapped up in the same kind of exotic instruments.  I don't know the level of exposure, but since the large investment banks have actually upped their level of leverage since paying the tarp funds back, the next bust is going to be a beaut.  There will be no political will for handouts, and if it blows up again, they risk prosecution.
I understand that the R's are the party of the rich  whatever Fox tells them they are, but at some point, being out of power just isn't that much fun.  And the way in which the bailout, followed by nose-thumbing, grates on what I'd consider basic American sensibilities about fair play and should generate populist rage.  It can be channeled and used, and it's most likely to be used by the same people who vote for Sarah!(TM).  
The money that the government has spent on the bailouts has hamstrung everything else, including health care.  If that fails, Obama's presidency is in real trouble.  Hiring Timmeh was a huge mistake.
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rumpole

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