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Week of January 7, 2007 - January 13, 2007

Intentions towards Iran just getting scarier and scarier


Greenwald did a great job with the hearing transcripts today regarding the administration's belief in its own power.  The post expands on a bunch of stuff that's gone back and forth in the comments section.  The media (at least, Tweety) seems to be onto these guys, though--at least more so than before.

 

Impeachment?


Biden has stated that if Bush attacks Iran, that there's going to be a constitutional confronation with the Congress. Although the Iranians are in a rather ironic place to complain about invasions of consular space, if the consulate was in fact the sovereign territory of iran, my suspicion is that he's violated a law or two. 

More on Iran


Update: Now it's on the front page of the WaPo online.  Secretary Rice's response to all this has been essentially: "We don't care whether it's sovereign territory.  Screw 'em."  No denials, no nothing.  That is a horrible position for the lead diplomat of the United States to take.  (Note: to those civil servants thinking about coming home, now would be a good time).

  I really hope there's less to this than meets the eye.  

Did the US Just Start a War with Iran?


Last night, Bush threatened action against Iran and Syria. According to this story by the AP, american forces have already arrested individuals and confiscated computers and documents in what Iran is calling a diplomatic mission. The US Army says otherwise.

If the Army is lying, then it's disturbing news. Diplomatic missions (and even sometimes consulates) are sovereign territory--in this case, the sovereign territory of Iran. That is an act of aggression, and it's the kind of thing that can escalate in a big hurry, unless Congress does something fairly quickly.

(Disclaimer: only permanent diplomatic missions (embassies) are foreign territory. Consulates, "temporary" diplomatic missions, may be subject to differing domestic laws, and consular employees do not have the same level of immunity as diplomats. If they're involved in funding insurgent attacks, the Iranian government is in a pickle, because the immunity only extends to those acts taken in the course of official duties. Put more simply, if Iran wants deniability, they'll have to disown the consular folks that were arrested. There's a lot more that needs to come out about this story, but in light of the constantly beating war drums in the speech last night, it's scary as hell.)

Godwin's law, revisited


This post strikes me as prescient in some ways--not because of the (increasingly apt) comparison between W and another leader much reviled, but because of the observation that W's failure to listen to not only the opposing party and the military, but also the "Establishment" (think Iraq study report) will remove his defenses to impeachment.

As much as he deserves it, I don't think that it's gonna happen for one simple reason. Clinton. We just had one, and it didn't go anywhere, but it sure was distracting while it lasted. Had Clinton not been impeached, I think it would be politically much easier but the Marshall Wittman's of the world will raise the specter of attempted bloodless coups every time the President's policies prove unpopular. That will be enough to keep him in office till Jan '09.

(If I'm wrong about this, I will happily eat crow).

 

Making a mess before you turn over the keys


It's the neocons last kegger. W's coming up on the waning days of his senior year, and as he comes closer and closer to graduation, the parties get bigger, rowdier and more raucous. His frat's about to get kicked off campus and the house taken over by a women's rights group, and he wants to make sure that they'll have a hell of a mess to clean up when they take over.

This surge plan is lunacy. We're supposed to believe that the American-supported government that is made up entirely of Shia is going to go and kill its sectarian bretheren (e.g., Sadr) who has become a hero to many of his followers. And we'll just throw another billion in on "infrastructure"? Isn't that what we've been doing? And hasn't literally billions disappeared without explanation?

The surge might, however, be just enough to provide some improved security in Bagdhad so that he can carry out the remainder of his term. The fact that the military doesn't support him should be proof positive for anyone. How are the Iraqis supposed to build infrastructure and schools in an insecure environment?

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rumpole

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