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Obama the Poker Player


Obama the Poker Player
by Ron Powell

President Obama was a regular in the low stakes games that he and members of the Illinois State legislature engaged in during ling sessions. He brought some of the tendencies he displayed around the card table to his presidential campaign. They are certain to be evident and analyzed through the course of his presidency.

By the accounts of his poker buddies, Democrats and Republicans, lawmakers and even the lobbyists, Obama is careful and focused. He's not easily distracted and doesn't give away his intentions unless it's to his advantage. He's not prone to taking risky chances, preferring to play it safe. He's is seriously competitive. They say that when he plays, he plays to win.

His friends say that Obama would study the odds carefully. If he had strong cards, he'd play. If he didn't, he would fold rather than bet good money on the chance the right card would show up when he needed it. That reputation meant that he often succeeded when he decided to bluff.

Some of the participants in the games described Obama as a careful player who manages risk and has excellent control regarding behaviors that could give away the strength of his hand. He is what poker players might describe as a "Rock". Republican players often teased him about being his being a conservative only when assessing the strength of his opponents in the game and the relative strength of his bankroll.

President Obama hasn't played poker since he left Springfield to become the junior senator from Illinois. He didn't join a Washington version of his weekly poker game and he didn't play while running for the presidency. But, those of us who know the game, know that if Obama was as good as they say he was, even though he has left the game, the game hasn't left him.

We know that the game of poker is as much a part of who Barack Obama is, as his game on the basketball court. It is in this regard that President Obama would do well to think back on the days of playing poker in the back rooms of the Illinois legislative building and remember that: He who holds the best cards at the beginning of a hand doesn't always win the pot.

If you like what you've read here, visit my blog, The Modern Times Post.


28 Comments

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Very good, very fine. Exactly how does our new President think? Well done.

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Obama is the kind of tight-assed poker player who sits around waiting for a "lock"... unbeatable cards. These guys do okay in pick-up games with their buddies, but in big-time poker, where the ante progressively increases, they get wiped out.

The obvious analogy is Obama's very first political campaign. "I'll shyster all the other Democratic candidates off the ballot, and then... I can't lose!"

So now we have a timid President making all sorts of concessions to the Republicans... "How about $300 billion in tax-cuts, guys!"... concessions that bought him a grand total of three Republican votes.

But what the heck! Let's nominate and elect this tight-assed preppie from Hawaii, because he is excellent at reading David Axelrod's speeches off a teleprompter, and he looks really good on TV!"

What we really needed was a high-roller, like FDR, instead of some naive speechifier who is... worst of all... so incredibly easy to cheat that he still doesn't know how much his "friends" like Larry Summers have given away to the banks.

We would all be so much better off if Barack Obama were still playing for nickels and dimes in the basement of some government building in Illinois, instead of sitting at the Big Table in Washington, losing trillions of dollars that used to belong to us.

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One more hand...

Obama was inaugurated with 75% approval, an economy in free-fall, and a panicky nation. If there was ever a perfect time to go all in with the progressive agenda, that was it.

Obama bet $2 instead, and hedged his bet with every other player at the table.

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This is where the somewhat tortured poker analogy falls apart completely.

People who complain about Obama not going "all in with the progressive agenda" were never paying attention during the campaign. Because Obama was never, ever going to go as far as the far left wanted him to. Of course, since he made his positions known during the campaign, this should not come as much of a surprise.

Obama is moving ahead with the agenda he promised during the campaign. That agenda may be similar to what the far left would like to see on major issues (economy, war, infrastructure, education), but it is NOT the same.

I'm not totally happy with everything he's done. But I believe that he is doing what can be done with what he promised to do. I am happier that he's putting the people and policies in place to engender long-term change, which is the REAL challenge with all the Zom-Bushes (thanks, Gregor!) burrowed into the DC bureaucracy.

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So now we have a timid President making all sorts of concessions to the Republicans... "How about $300 billion in tax-cuts, guys!"... concessions that bought him a grand total of three Republican votes.

In the midst of the histrionics, it would be good to remember that those three Republican votes - Snowe, Collins, and Specter - were necessary to pass the stimulus. Without them, the vote goes 58-41, and the stimulus fails.

I've played a lot of no-limit in my relatively short life, both live action and in tournaments. The game Obama is playing now is more akin to the high-stakes live-action games, where you still play for the long term and choose your spots to risk big chunks of your bankroll.

He's got political wins under his belt on the stimulus and the budget, and he's got his top people in place. I'd say he's well positioned for, say, playing a big pot on health care reform.

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"Without them, the vote goes 58-41, and the stimulus fails."

Did you actually see a filibuster, genius?

Or did the Republicans just tell you they were holding seven aces, and you immediately folded, because...

You're just another preppie fish like Obama!

I've played a lot of no-limit in my relatively short life...

Yeah, right!

"I see your potato chip, and raise you all the jelly beans in my pocket."

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Hey stupid, the rules for the Senate require 60 or more votes to pass non-budget legislation that isn't paid for by equivalent program cuts or tax increases. Look it up.

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It's my stalker, Zipperpus again! And of course he has yet another simple-minded explanation for (almost) everything.

"Hey stupid, the rules for the Senate require 60 or more votes to pass non-budget legislation that isn't paid for by equivalent program cuts or tax increases."

If only the Senate itself were as simple-minded as Zipperpus, what a beautiful world this would be!

But it isn't, and the actual rule that governs some deficit spending is anything except simple.

SEC. 201. PAY-AS-YOU-GO POINT OF ORDER IN THE SENATE.

(a) Point of Order-

(1) IN GENERAL- It shall not be in order in the Senate to consider any direct spending or revenue legislation that would increase the on-budget deficit or cause an on-budget deficit for either of the applicable time periods as measured in paragraphs (5) and (6).

(2) APPLICABLE TIME PERIODS- For purposes of this subsection, the term `applicable time period' means either--

(A) the period of the current fiscal year, the budget year, and the ensuing 4 fiscal years following the budget year; or

(B) the period of the current fiscal year, the budget year, and the ensuing 9 fiscal years following the budget year.

(3) DIRECT SPENDING LEGISLATION- For purposes of this subsection and except as provided in paragraph (4), the term `direct spending legislation' means any bill, joint resolution, amendment, motion, or conference report that affects direct spending as that term is defined by, and interpreted for purposes of, the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985.

(4) EXCLUSION- For purposes of this subsection, the terms `direct spending legislation' and `revenue legislation' do not include--

(A) any concurrent resolution on the budget; or

(B) any provision of legislation that affects the full funding of, and continuation of, the deposit insurance guarantee commitment in effect on the date of enactment of the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990.

(5) BASELINE- Estimates prepared pursuant to this subsection shall--

(A) use the baseline surplus or deficit used for the most recently adopted concurrent resolution on the budget; and

(B) be calculated under the requirements of subsections (b) through (d) of section 257 of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 (as in effect prior to September 30, 2002) for fiscal years beyond those covered by that concurrent resolution on the budget.

(6) PRIOR SURPLUS- If direct spending or revenue legislation increases the on-budget deficit or causes an on-budget deficit when taken individually, it must also increase the on-budget deficit or cause an on-budget deficit when taken together with all direct spending and revenue legislation enacted since the beginning of the calendar year not accounted for in the baseline under paragraph (5)(A), except that direct spending or revenue effects resulting in net deficit reduction enacted in any bill pursuant to a reconciliation instruction since the beginning of that same calendar year shall never be made available on the pay-as-you-go ledger and shall be dedicated only for deficit reduction.

(b) Supermajority Waiver and Appeals-

(1) WAIVER- This section may be waived or suspended in the Senate only by the affirmative vote of three-fifths of the Members, duly chosen and sworn.

(2) APPEALS- Appeals in the Senate from the decisions of the Chair relating to any provision of this section shall be limited to 1 hour, to be equally divided between, and controlled by, the appellant and the manager of the bill or joint resolution, as the case may be. An affirmative vote of three-fifths of the Members of the Senate, duly chosen and sworn, shall be required to sustain an appeal of the ruling of the Chair on a point of order raised under this section.

(c) Determination of Budget Levels- For purposes of this section, the levels of new budget authority, outlays, and revenues for a fiscal year shall be determined on the basis of estimates made by the Senate Committee on the Budget.

(d) Sunset- This section shall expire on September 30, 2017.

(e) Repeal- In the Senate, section 505 of H. Con. Res. 95 (108th Congress), the fiscal year 2004 concurrent resolution on the budget, shall no longer apply.

The section in boldface is worth special attention from mechanical "I love love love Obama!" posters like Boyd Reed and junior-college government experts like Zipperpus, although it's only one and by far the simplest of about a hundred significant qualifications of the so-called "necessity" of 60 votes for the stimulus, all of which can be bypassed by one parliamentary dodge or another.

So here's a question for Boyd "Obama Is Always Right" Reed and Zipperpus (Marine slang for "boy-toy")...

What happens if the Chair of the Senate, which can be Joe Biden any time he wants it to be, simply rules that the Sec. 201 point of order does not apply to the stimulus?

What happens next?

Then it's the Republicans who need 60 votes to over-rule the ruling of the Chair, and that big, ugly shoe is on the other foot.

Harharharhar!!!

And that's only one way, and by far the simplest, that Democrats could have avoided the "necessity" of 60 Senate votes to pass the stimulus, if Barack Obama wasn't such a wussy, and Harry Reid had the balls to play hard-ball with the Republicans.

But what Democrats really (almost) can't avoid is a filibuster, which can (almost) always interrupt the proceedings, but if they had the courage of their convictions, they could also overcome a filibuster, with the same "nuclear option" that Republicans threatened to apply to judicial nominations, and which also depended on a ruling from the Chair, way back when the Chair by default was Richard B. Cheney.

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I might as well add one more note before the usual mob of hoodoo Obamabots wakes up again and claims Obama that kept promising to give away $10 trillion to bank speculators all the way through the primaries, and anybody who doesn't like it just wasn't listening.

Harharharhar!!!

Progressive mandate! We don't see no stinking progressive mandate!

Meanwhile, back in the Senate, where Democrats always claim they can't do anything without 60 votes, although Republicans can do everything without 60 votes...

On the first day of every legislative session, the Senate has a peculiar moment where all bets are off... the usual Senate rules exist only in suspended animation, before the Senate reconfirms them, and for that one beautiful moment, only standard parliamentary procedure governs the proceedings.

At this point all Senate rules can be over-ruled by a simple majority vote, and Democrats could conceivably stop letting Republicans run the show.

What then?

They might have to pass single-payer healthcare and the EFCA and a whole lot of other "Democratic" programs that they always pretend to want to pass, if only...

...if only...

...if only it weren't for those evil Republicans, who kill all out beautiful proposals, because we don't have 60 votes.

But as long as Corporate Party Number Two can hide behind the convenient myth of needing 60 votes for everything, even though Corporate Party Number Two never needed 60 votes for anything...

Then the Democrats never have to do anything for their so-called constituency, meaning everybody except the billionaire masters of the Republican Party, while the Republicans can do everything for their billionaire masters, without scraping up 60 votes for anything.

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Rootie, I wondered when I started following you whether I had been too rash in my rush to judgement. I've put my concerns to bed. You are one of the good guys, whether these others know it or not. Hey don't get me wrong, I think they're good guys too. I think you're right on here though. Is there a will to exercise all options to do the right thing? We'll see.

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Thanks, Miguelito!

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And even one more note about the (now) famous-for-fifteen-minutes Sec. 201... (Don't tell me you already forgot!)

This thing was passed by the 110th Congress, and if you check the composition of the Senate in the 110th Congress very carefully, you may observe that Republicans did not have 60 votes to over-ride a Democratic filibuster, so the miserable Sec. 201, which was inspired by Grover Norquist and his many little friends as just another device to make it almost impossible to appropriate money for anything except the defense industry and give-aways to billionaires...

Sec. 201 was passed with the collusion of Democrats who virtually never force Republicans to round up 60 votes for anything, and in the 110th Congress the Democrats had plenty of votes to sustain a filibuster of Sec. 201...

...but of course Democrats didn't filibuster Sec. 201, and and now they can claim that this miserable Sec. 201 which they allowed to turn into a Senate rule demands that they cripple the stimulus with $300 billion in tax cuts just so they could pick up a grand total of 3 Republican votes.

That's $100 billion per vote, kiddies, but buying votes is only expensive when it's Republican votes that you absolutely have to buy, but when you need Democratic votes to cripple the government, you can get them for nothing.

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Wow. I'd figured this post was done until I got an e-mail about this inane intepretation of the "pay-as-you-go" rule.

Did you actually bother to *read* Sec. 201, Jacob Freeze....er, I mean, Rutabaga Ridgepole?

Sec. 201(b)(1) reads (emphasis mine):

WAIVER - This section may be waived or suspended in the Senate only by the affirmative vote of three-fifths of the Members, duly chosen and sworn.

Section 201 can only be waived or suspended by a supermajority of seated Senators. The Chair cannot waive the pay-as-you-go budget rule.

Remedial reading class is now over. Go hurl your insults elsewhere, Freeze.

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That was a special type of motion that actually required 60 votes to pass by senate agreement, filibuster or no filibuster he still needed 60 votes.

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Thanks to you and zipperupus for typing that so I didn't have to.

And Ridgepole, there's a nice $10-20 blind no-limit game about 5 minutes from my house in suburban Pittsburgh. Meets twice a week. If you're interested, I'll gladly post my e-mail address and you can write me for directions. :-)

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Timid? I'd call it a realistic assessment of his situation.

It bears repeating -- again -- that Obama wasn't elected with a mandate for progressive change. It was, probably in ranking order, 1) the economy, 2) disgust with the sitting administration tied to the war and the economy, and 3) a lack of confidence in the opposition, mainly in its ability to fix the economy.

A Krugmanesque stimulus package had no chance in the Senate. He played the cards he was dealt and got the best bill that was available to him.

This will continue as long as the economy founders. If it strengthens, his position strengthens. Until then, he's holding a weak hand and he knows it.

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do you know the quality of the players that you are basing your assumptions on?

and more importantly, how will you ever know obama is not bluffing you when he is now holding all the cards??

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Listen to JadeZ cause this ain't no bluff. Obama is holding all the cards.

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Thanks for the commentary and debate.
By the way, you can catch me in the pokerrooms at the Taj Mahal in Atlantic City, NJ and at Foxwoods in CT. I play 10-20 and 20-40 7 card stud. When I play in the clubs at home, in New Haven, CT, I play no-limit 7 card stud.

Don't forget to visit my blog, The Modern Times Post, at: themoderntimespost.blogspot.com.

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Heh, and here I thought you just played the piano.

;)

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There are some who would say that I'm a better poker player than I am a piano player. I've doing both for nearly the same amount of time.
Your comment has prompted me to edit my bio and throw in a line regarding my interest in poker.
Thanks for the comment

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Thanks for the music.

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You are quite welcome to anything that I have to offer. Thanks for the poetry. I would like to 'follow' your blog but I can't figure out where the 'follow me' tab is. I would like to be sure to follow you and your lovely poetry. Can you help me with that? I looked on the help page but it was of no help. As you might guess, I am somewhat challenged when it comes to this sort of stuff.....

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Once you're loggedin, if you click my username in any of my comments here, you'll get to my blog page where there's a big red & white rectangle below my picture that says "Follow Me". Click it and it will turn red and say "Following" and from there, you will be able to see anything I post or comment on or recommend by going to your "Dashboard" at the top of the TPM page.

Thanks - may I say I'm honored.

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The honor is mine.

Having done that how do i get a "Follow Me" rectangle to appear on my blog profile?

Would it be presumptuous of me to ask for your e-mail address. Mine is in my profile. Send me an e-mail if you would. Communication here is rather awkward.....

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You already have a "Follow Me" rectangle on your page, only the rest of us can see it while you can't (simply because there's no point in following yourself, LOL). Um, I don't really like to give out my email addy but you're welcome to join all of TPM-aholics in our off-site chat room at http://www.lingr.com/room/TPM-aholics

We're usually in there in the evenings.

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As you wish.
Thanks for the info...

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Anyone who can truly enjoys poker, and is enthusiastic in their approach to the came is ok with me. I would have supported Obama whether he played poker or not.

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Ron Powell (BA, Howard University,’68; JD, University of Connecticut School of Law, ’71), is a semi-retired teaching attorney who, among other things during his career, has been the director of the African American cultural centers at both Yale University and the University of Connecticut. In addition, he has written produced and directed several plays for productions performed on college campuses in Connecticut. During his career as a professor of law and public policy at the University of Hartford, he produced and hosted "Black Perspective", a television program which aired weekly at the NBC affiliate located in Hartford as part of their public service broadcasting. He has worked in legal services, as a middle manger in both the private and public sectors and has served the nation as in the Air Force, honorably discharged at the rank of 1st Lt. Mr. Powell has owned and operated his own businesses and, for a period of several years, wrote a weekly op-ed column for the Meriden Record-Journal in Meriden Ct. Currently, he is a freelance writer for publications in the New Haven area and lectures on a variety of topics and provides consulting services in a variety of areas....Finally, Mr. Powell has been a keyboard performer and part-time DJ for more than 45 years. He is an avid collector and historian of recorded Jazz, Fusion, Funk, R&B, and Doo Wop....A life time poker enthusiast, he has been been a senior contributor on a poker web sight and blog and has played in the World Poker Tour, 7 card stud finals. Mr. Powell recently launched his own blog, The Modern Times Post, at: themoderntimespost.blogspot.com His E-mail address is: ronpowell01@yahoo.com

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